Hoosier

I don't see how it's going to affect chasing in a big way unless out of state travel gets banned. Perhaps the biggest concern is if law enforcement catches you outside of your vehicle filming/taking pics, but even then, they would probably just tell you to go home.

Was reading something sobering a little while ago about how covid-19 may become the leading cause of death in the US for a period of time pretty soon. Heart disease is #1 with over 1700 deaths per day on average.

The onslaught of fatalities and still less than ideal testing capacity has pushed the US confirmed case fatality rate up to near 2.5%. No, it's almost certainly not the real fatality rate from this illness, but that percentage will keep going up unless we start testing at a much faster rate than we are now.

Ohio didn't really close stuff much earlier than the other states. I think there are probably multiple reasons for why it hasn't been as bad there. Cancelling the primary is likely a factor. From the link I posted earlier today...

Disturbing that we are at or over the top end model projections for US deaths at this point. Worldometers has over 1000 today.

At least it would take our minds off the coronavirus.

For sure. The Cook county deaths jumped out at me. 2/3 of the total deaths in Illinois have been there so the percentage from today's update (35/42) is even higher. Little ways out into the future but I am a bit concerned about what happens if Lake county IN were to open back up before Illinois does. May have people spilling over the border to go to the beaches, etc.

35 of the 42 new deaths in Illinois are in Cook county. Yikes

And 78 more deaths

Article comparing what states in the region have done, and also some thoughts about why Michigan is getting hit so hard: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/why-did-coronavirus-spread-so-fast-michigan-compared-neighbors

Another thing is that people who live together pass it on to each other, accounting for some percentage of new cases.

fwiw, this woman passed away earlier today. So she lasted about 3 weeks after becoming symptomatic. She was really ravaged by it... I mean it goes without saying but her husband was posting frequent updates and according to him they weren't even able to detect any brain activity toward the end.

I want warm.

This ain't a movie man.

A town around here already cancelled their July 4 parade and fireworks.

Pretty big earthquake just hit Idaho.

Good point Btw, you know this thing is all over the state when Warren county has cases. That is like the ruralest of the rural counties.

Noticed something odd on the map of Indiana cases. It largely follows based on population with rural counties having no or a few confirmed cases. But I'm not sure why those counties in southeastern IN have the numbers that they do. They are relatively low population/density.

I don't want to predict a death toll... this isn't a snowstorm we are talking about. But I will say this. Looking at the modeling and then doing some numbers on a county level, I think it will be somewhat of a victory if we keep the death toll under 1,000 in Indiana and under 100 in Lake county Indiana. fwiw, current statewide number of deaths is 49.

Today is gonna be bad. Already around 400 deaths with a number of states yet to report anything.

Cases in my county jumped by 50% since yesterday. I don't know if a backlog over the weekend could partially explain that so will be very interested to see tomorrow's number.

This model was put out by a group at University of Washington. It assumes social distancing continuing throughout May. Since we may not actually do that, the real curve may end up looking a bit different on the back side. The low end scenario has around 40,000 US deaths by early August. You can see the high end is over 140,000. Again this is with social distancing continuing throughout the period and obviously assuming no effective therapeutic comes along in the meantime. If we went completely back to life as normal then the numbers would be way uglier than this. In the nearer term, the low end scenario still has 1,000+ deaths per day in the US from April 5-19.

This overlapping with allergy season is going to cause some paranoia for sure.

Cases showing up now in employees at the steel mills around here. They are considered essential business though so they remain open.

Found toilet paper at CVS. It's the little things in life.