Hoosier

That does point to a much higher number of cases than have been confirmed. Nobody really knows but I have seen estimates that it may be 10x higher at a minimum.

Big jump in cases at that nursing home too.

A couple things we do have in our favor compared to Italy is that the US has a lower percentage of elderly people and overall, our population is much more spread out than Italy. The downside is that our response has been much more patchwork and inconsistent state by state so far. Because of that and when the restrictions are inevitably relaxed or people just get tired of following them, we may be playing whack a mole with hotspots/clusters for a while.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHERN IA AS WELL AS FROM CENTRAL AR INTO CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks vicinity into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys on Thursday. Damaging gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes are possible, mainly during the afternoon into the evening hours. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeast from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday. As this occurs, intense deep layer southwesterly shear will overspread much of the Ozarks into the mid-MS and lower OH Valley vicinity while a deepening surface low develops east/northeast across KS to IA by 00z, to the Great Lakes/Canadian border by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning in a strong warm advection regime across the mid-MS Valley and lower OH Valley. A warm front extending from the NE/KS border area east/southeast to near St. Louis to southern IN early Thursday will steadily lift northward through the afternoon. By late afternoon/early evening, the surface low will be near the NE/IA/MO tri-state area with the warm front extending across central IA to near the WI/IL border eastward into northern IN/OH. A cold front will extend southward from the low into eastern OK and central/southern TX. 60s surface dewpoints will be common across much of the warm sector, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints possible from eastern OK/TX across the Ozark Plateau toward western KY/southern IL/MO Bootheel region. Cloud cover across the region will inhibit destabilization somewhat, but steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing low level moisture will result in MLCAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg by afternoon. 850-700 mb southwesterly flow will likewise increase to 45-55 kt as the upper trough shifts eastward during the afternoon and evening. Supercells will initially be possible ahead of the cold front, but may tend to grow upscale into bowing segments with time as deep layer shear will become more unidirectional into the evening hours. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for damaging gusts, large hail and tornadoes across portions of the Ozarks into the lower Ohio Valley. Further north near the surface low, effective SRH will be quite a bit stronger due to the influence of the deepening low and warm front. Backed low level flow in this vicinity and better directional shear will result in a corridor of greater tornado potential during the late afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging gusts will also be possible as supercells and bowing segment shift northeast toward southern WI/northern IL during the evening. ..Leitman.. 03/18/2020

There is some pretty detailed info on the newspaper website about one of the local Lake county IN cases, much of which is from this sick woman's husband since medical officials are obviously limited with what they can release. She wasn't feeling well so she went to urgent care about a week ago, tested negative for flu and was diagnosed with a kidney infection and sent home. Then went to the ER on Saturday with an increasing fever and shortness of breath. Condition quickly worsened and then she was tested and came back positive on Monday night. Currently in critical condition.

It hasn't moved perfectly like that... there have been some ups and downs but the past 4 days or so have all been the worst.

475 new deaths in Italy, worst day yet and why it is important to not overwhelm the system because some of those people who have died would have otherwise survived.

Day 2 marginal risk for a good part of the area with a slight on the western fringes.

Looks like non-essential travel between the U.S. and Canada is going to be banned sometime soon.

My cousin's aunt and uncle (not related to me though) got back from a Europe trip and the aunt is running a fever along with a sore throat. I thought she and her husband got back like a week ago but turns out they were caught up in that long mess at ORD this past weekend. The sore throat is one of the much less common symptoms but can happen. She should probably get tested just to know but no idea if she will.

I'm going to change it to evil foreign invader so as to not stigmatize a city.

The $1000 for everybody idea is sort of interesting. There is an Oprah meme for that.

For real. I have been trying to talk my mom into not going to the gym. She is not in the highest risk group but she is later 60s. She is good with sanitizing the equipment but still. Most of what she does she could figure out some exercise substitutions at home. I imagine the decision is going to be taken out of her hands in the very near future anyway.

The new report that came out is mind boggling... says the closings/social distancing may have to go on for up to 18 months or until a vaccine is widely available. Good luck getting people to go along with that. At some point I think people would just say screw it and if I get sick or die, so be it.

First 2 cases confirmed here in Lake county IN. Both currently in the hospital.

Ohio polls closed tomorrow. Hopefully the other states that are voting are doing whatever they can to minimize the risk.

Anyone else hyper aware of people coughing? I went to the store a little while ago and on the way in there was a woman ahead of me who coughed w/out covering her mouth. I tried to stay out of her path.

Thank you

Gov Holcomb just announced first coronavirus death in Indiana.

Lots of rumors about a lockdown/quasi lockdown nationally later this week. Just rumors but doesn't seem like a stretch at this rate.

Another 349 deaths in Italy. They have had their 2 deadliest days back to back. Eventually the lockdown should start paying off there but I'm sure it seems a bit hopeless right now.

If you go back and look at some newspaper headlines from when the 1918 flu was ramping up, it looks strikingly similar to the news headlines now. The lesson from back then is that distancing/quarantines do help to "flatten the curve", but it has to be done early and aggressively. Philadelphia was very slow to act back then and they had a much higher illness/death rate than other places in the US that acted more quickly. St. Louis acted quickly and they were able to keep their rate on the lower side. But one thing to learn from St. Louis is that they started to loosen their restrictions after about 6 weeks, and then there was an immediate spike in cases there. So the 8 week guidance that has come out from the CDC seems long, but past experience suggests it may even need to go on longer.

lol https://www.fox5ny.com/news/do-not-call-911-just-because-you-ran-out-of-toilet-paper-oregon-police-say

Now Indiana is stopping in person dining in restaurants.

Pritzker announcing all bars and restaurants closing in Illinois. Prepare for an influx of patrons into neighboring Indiana lol