Hoosier

One reason that daily deaths have been picking up lately is that "probable" covid-19 deaths are being added in. This will undoubtedly become a talking point for some people to argue that the death toll is being inflated, but keep in mind that the procedure for coming up with flu deaths is not limited to those confirmed via testing. And I don't know if all states have started adding in probable deaths.

Unfortunately we're not going to be able to figure out the true fatality rate for a while. It is certainly going to be a lot lower than the current case fatality rate. Doesn't take away from the concern of pushing hospitals to or over the brink if things reopen too fast.

In Indiana, we are doing quite well as far as hospital/ICU bed and ventilator availability. In order to keep it that way, any reopening is going to have to be gradual and not like flipping a light switch. I actually liked the 3 phase reopening guidelines and what needs to happen to go from phase to phase that was put out by the White House yesterday.

The new data dump from Indiana has pushed the statewide number of cases over 10000 and deaths over 500.

Texas shouldn't even be in the discussion. The thing that people often overlook is that their level of testing per million has been atrocious... among the worst in the country. Even the most widely tested place in the United States -- New York -- has been unable to test everyone who needs one and has resulted in thousands of probable covid-19 fatalities in homes/nursing homes that haven't been able to be confirmed via lab testing. Florida has been better than Texas with testing, though a lot of room for improvement there. Even if warm weather helps slow the spread, it is so damn contagious that any warm wx benefit could easily be cancelled out if we start behaving recklessly.

Yeah, I wouldn't be on board with starting to reopen (which still doesn't mean flipping the switch like everything is ok) until testing and tracing gets a lot better than it is now, and preferably with rapid result testing. No more of this wait 5 days or 7 days for your test result, and EVERYBODY who is symptomatic should have access to testing.

87 inmates test positive at Westville, IN correctional facility https://wsbt.com/amp/news/coronavirus/positive-coronavirus-cases-jump-to-87-at-westville-correctional-facility

Are you really gonna lecture Powerball about race? Dude, he is a black man. I don't think he was saying that everybody at the protest was racist, but we can probably assume the people who showed up with the confederate flag are as well as an unknowable number of others. People are hurting and scared about their future, that is for sure. And there are good arguments to make about the negative consequences of a quasi lockdown, which is why some kind of balance will be need to be struck at some point to be able to start to gradually reopen.

7 Midwest states to partner on reopening the economy amid COVID-19 pandemic LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Seven Midwestern governors announced Thursday that they will coordinate on reopening their state economies amid the coronavirus pandemic, after similar pacts were made in the Northeast and on the West Coast. The latest agreement includes Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Kentucky. “We look forward to working with experts and taking a fact-based, data-driven approach to reopening our economy in a way that protects families from the spread of COVID-19,” the governors said. “Our No. 1 priority when analyzing when (is) best to reopen our economy is the health and safety of our citizens.” The Midwestern alliance joins pacts on the West Coast and in the Northeast that were announced this week. All together, the 17 states covered by the pacts are home to nearly half of the country’s population. “Phasing in sectors of our economy will be most effective when we work together as a region,” said the governors, who include five Democrats — Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Wisconsin’s Tony Evers, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear — and two Republicans, Mike DeWine of Ohio and Erick Holcomb of Indiana. They stressed it does not mean every state will take the same steps at the same time. Ohio’s role in the agreement was unclear. A spokesman for DeWine said his comments from Wednesday still stand. “We have no formal agreements or compacts at this time,” Dan Tierney said Wednesday. But he said DeWine is in regular communication with governors of surrounding states to share information, strategy and resources. https://fox59.com/news/7-midwest-states-including-indiana-to-partner-on-reopening-the-economy-amid-covid-19-pandemic/

They should have protested less than 10 at a time.

Looks like a decent sized protest in Michigan. Streets are clogged. Hopefully the people out there will be understanding whenever the next protest occurs for a cause they may not agree with.

My construction buddy hooked me up with an N95. Only one, but better than nothing.

Some of this is probably a lag in reporting from the weekend but over 2300 new US deaths. Averaging the 12th-14th comes out to about 1800/day.

Largely missing out on the heavier stuff again.

This is true of course, but I think the dropoff maybe has not been as precipitous as hoped. Italy is running above the top end of the IHME projection. At some point this becomes a question of what level of death are various countries willing to tolerate.

Getting a little too political here. Yes, I know it is the elephant in the room and hard to divorce it from this situation, but overall we have been doing a pretty good job keeping things focused on what the virus is doing. So on that note, some good news and bad news from a country that has gotten a lot of attention -- Italy. New case numbers are trending down but unfortunately the deaths are staying over 500 per day.

My sincere condolences to you

Indiana governor suggested that he may be making tweaks to the stay at home order by the end of this week (order is set to expire April 20). Perhaps some kind of adjustment (loosening?) to the restrictions but we'll see. He did say he has been in contact with the governors in Illinois and Michigan on how to move forward but idk if that necessarily means that all the states will do things at the same time.

Nursing home outbreak in northwest IN: NEWTON COUNTY, Ind. (WLFI) — The Newton County Health Department says 21 people in a long-term care facility have been infected with COVID-19. https://www.wlfi.com/templates/AMP?contentID=569596371

Lightfoot taking a pic with the woman who cut her hair was definitely a mistake on her part. I don't know what the circumstances were (did the person come to Lightfoot's house, did Lightfoot go there, etc) but it just gives people ammo. Next time maybe get your hair cut in secret Lori.

A lot of cars down the street from here, presumably an Easter gathering. Sure hope nobody is carrying the virus.

Italy's lockdown was extended to May 3, and the US is generally running behind them in terms of the progression of the virus. Obviously it's a different situation in this country with the governors having the say. I think May (at least a good part of it) is probably going to look a lot like April as far as what is going to be open/closed, especially in the harder hit states.

12z GFS is pretty impressive for that system next week, especially for this time of year.

A bad milestone has been reached in Indiana. Covid has been confirmed in all 92 counties.

You know you are out of season when the precip type map looks like this