Popped over here to read this thread and, well, this is why we try to avoid political discussions on this site.
I realize that it is hard to keep politics completely out of the discussion about the virus, but please try to keep your posts focused on the virus as much as possible.
Many illnesses have covid-19 like symptoms though. I could see it being in the US longer than thought but am skeptical of any idea that it was running rampant all over the place for months. And take Italy as an example. I don't remember hearing anything like what they are going through right now with the hospital strain. If it were spreading throughout Italy a couple months ago, we would've heard something about an unusually large number of hospitalizations and deaths.
Italy's deaths were down from yesterday's update, but still not far from 700. They are going through a really rough stretch to try to get to the other side of the curve.
It makes sense that it's going to take longer for this to penetrate more easily into small town/rural America than, say, New York City or Chicago. If it's not in the next week or two, it will be when life starts going back to normal.
The way you know that the testing still sucks here in Indiana is that if you just take the number of deaths divided by number of confirmed cases, it comes out to 3.3% of people who have died. Well above the current national number. This is before a big crush of people showing up to the hospitals and draining resources. I provided my anecdotal story about my sister's friend but it has also been publicly reported in the media about how the criteria to get tested here is still pretty high. If you are young/otherwise healthy with symptoms of covid-19, you're most likely not getting a test. Who knows how many mild-moderate cases are out there.
We are still pretty far from the capability of everybody who is having symptoms getting a test, let alone people who are asymptomatic. I posted last night about how my sister's friend who works in a hospital is having symptoms and can't even get a test. That is pretty unreal that somebody in that occupation can't get one. I would hope they have decided to stay home for the time being out of an abundance of caution but I don't know. Hopefully anybody who even suspects the slightest hint of having covid19 is staying home right now and not waiting for a test to confirm.
The way I read it is that essential work will go on but everything else has to shut down. So places like clothing stores, hair salons, etc shouldn't be open.
Edit:
https://www.wthr.com/article/heres-what-you-can-do-under-stay-home-order-and-which-businesses-are-essential
Deaths in Italy dropped for a second day in a row. It is working, it just takes a while.
The next phase of this is that when you do start to loosen the restrictions, the cases increase again, like what is happening now in parts of Asia.
Stay at home order for Indiana that will kick in on Wednesday.
Our confirmed case number is still kind of low compared to many other states, but a concerning thing is that 8 people have already died. I think that is a good indicator that we are substantially farther along with the outbreak than we think, because it often takes 10 days, 2 weeks, 3 weeks for a person to die from this.
Although testing is a bit better than it was early on, there is no question we are still in serious catch up mode in this country, with some states lagging behind more than others. In some instances, the only reported case in a county is of someone who died. Very unlikely.
My sister's friend works in a hospital, is feeling sick (not sure on exact symptoms) and can't get tested. If that is the situation across the country, ****
Well said. And yeah, increased depression, suicides, child abuse, the economics, etc are the negative consequences of shutting so much down, especially if it goes on for a while. It is a tough spot for decision makers to be in.
The swine flu deaths took like a year or more to get to the 12,000+ number, iirc. We'll see where we are with covid19 in early to mid 2021. Hopefully it will be a lower death toll in the US... if it is, it will be because of the current measures and some very effective/widely available/low cost treatment option.
New map of confirmed cases from Indiana's virus page
Obviously there is undercounting because of testing issues. It is no surprise that Marion county/Indianapolis leads the state, but another thing that stands out are the very low numbers in the donut counties around there. A lot of people commute into Indianapolis from those counties, though less now than a couple weeks ago with many companies putting emphasis on working from home.