Hoosier

Yeah, that is a significant downward revision by IHME. Nice to see. The range now goes from about 30k-130k with projected of 60k. Unfortunately the low end of the range looks out to lunch. Based on how this illness goes and using the patterns in other countries and applying to the US, there is no reason to think there won't be high 1000 to potentially over 2000 daily deaths in the US for the next week. Then should start coming down but remain high... well over 1000/day for a while. We could already be around 30,000 by end of next week. If we keep up with what we're doing until at least June, then hopefully we can keep the number more in the 50k-60k range.

New York City officials will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths of people who die at home following a WNYC/Gothamistreport revealing a staggering number of such deaths that were not included in the official tally. In a statement, Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for New York City’s Health Department, said the city would no longer report only those cases that were confirmed by a laboratory test. “The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home,” she said. She didn’t say when the city would begin reporting suspected deaths along with the overall count. But the new protocol is likely to add thousands to the toll. The announcement comes as New York City saw the largest single day of deaths so far from the COVID-19 pandemic — 727 people passed away in a 24-hour period. But even that number failed to include many of the cases in which first responders encountered someone who had already died at home or other non-hospital settings. That happened 280 times on Monday, according to data from the Fire Department. While not all of those deaths are necessarily caused by COVID-19, it’s a staggering increase over the average 25 home deaths the city usually saw on any given day before the pandemic swept the five boroughs. Over the last two weeks, FDNY officials said 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year. On Tuesday evening, the city reported 3,544 people have died of coronavirus, as confirmed by lab tests. Earlier in the day, Mayor Bill de Blasio acknowledged that the vast majority of deaths taking place at home were likely also due to the virus, meaning the death toll could be as much as 70 percent higher than currently reported figures. “We do want to know the truth about every death at home, but it’s safe to assume that the vast majority are coronavirus related,” he said. “That makes it even more sober, the sense of how many people we are losing.” An FDNY paramedic who asked his name not be used because he wasn’t authorized to speak to reporters said he’s watched a dramatic shift over the past three weeks. First, he was called to attend to people with mild symptoms and anxiety about being sick; the second week, it was critically ill patients who were rushed to the hospital. “This week it went from critical patients, to just cardiac arrests all over the place,” he said. “We get there and the family’s telling us, ‘We went to the hospital five days ago and they discharged us’ or ‘We stayed home. We called our doctor. We called 311, a tele-doc gave us a prescription for a Z-pack this morning.’ And now they’re dying.” The paramedic called the situation demoralizing. He spoke to WNYC/Gothamist while waiting for police officers to respond to the scene of one home death in Brooklyn on Tuesday morning. “What we’re seeing now is people literally dropping dead at home” he said. “Nothing we do helps.” https://gothamist.com/news/death-count-expected-soar-nyc-says-it-will-begin-reporting-suspected-covid-deaths-addition-confirmed-ones

The United States case fatality rate is approaching 3.5%. It was around 1% not that long ago. It really shows that despite testing being better than it was in the beginning (a low bar to clear), we are still in catchup mode and a lot of cases will never be diagnosed because the window of catching a case is open for only so long before a person recovers.

Hey Jackstraw, I merged your thread into here since it appears his death is due to covid. I am ok with having a virus thread due to the extraordinary circumstances, but don't really want to set a precedent for any and all kinds of OT threads.

hässlich

I mean the general public of Dems, Reps, Indies should be against it. The outrage should be non partisan.

No, Centennial Park in Munster. Came over here because I'm tired of looking at Griffith.

Had a cluster of like 8 people pass by wtf. No masks

Actually there are still a fair number of people passing by... walking, biking, jogging. Gotta watch those runners, they expel a lot of breath.

Social distancing

73 more deaths in Illinois.

Going to have a 2000 day, if not today then soon. Although these daily counts are pretty prone to error in multiple ways. Indiana had 34 "new" deaths since yesterday's update, but those 34 died over a number of days because the confirmation process is slow.

No excuse for what is going on in Wisconsin. It's not a partisan thing... everybody no matter your leanings should be able to agree that now isn't the time to hold voting. Going out to get food and necessities is essential. Voting on April 7, 2020, is not.

Hope things turn out well.

That's what I said days ago. They better figure it out quick.

Wait til tomorrow... will need 1000 Lightfoot clones roaming around Chicago to keep people from congregating in groups outside.

Raises questions about viral shedding and how long somebody is capable of being contagious.

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source] [source]

51 S.Korean COVID-19 patients retest positive after recovery http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951383.htm

British PM now in ICU per news reports.

Week or two is a good guess for when the absolute worst should be on the whole for the nation. There will likely be areas regionally/locally that lag behind that timeframe. How we behave as we flatten the curve in various areas will be very important. Already reports of crowds gathering in Manhattan per a member who is a NYC cop.

Well, the IHME model updated. There is good news and bad news. The good news is that it dropped the total US deaths to a bit over 80k (was like 93k on previous update). The bad news is that the peak day is really ugly. But more *potentially* good news... notice that enormous range on peak day. Maybe things break favorably.

Good job, sir. You'd probably know better than me but I think Holcomb's order carved out an exemption for places of worship, provided they adhere to the recommended crowd/social distance guidelines. Of course that would be difficult for most places to accomplish unless the congregation is very, very small.

Church around here held service today and got busted https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than-30/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html#tracking-source=home-trending I imagine there will be more of this next weekend. Would not be surprised to see a bit of a spike in cases later this month, tied back to gatherings on the religious holidays.

British pm has been sick with the virus for a week and a half and now admitted to the hospital for "tests." What are they testing for at this point? https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21N0VI