eyewall

RAH is talking about a cut back: Very few if any changes this morning. Looks like a later start to the snow across the north as the precipitation has not quite filled in across the north this morning. The longer these areas remain precipitation free, the more temperatures will be allowed to rise and the lower chances for significant snowfall amounts. Generally, expect snow accumulation to largely hold off until after 4 PM this afternoon, with increasing chances for snow through the evening and early overnight. However, there is still a good bit of uncertainty with respect to amounts.

Yeah we will see if it can eek its way in soon. I know there have been epic virga busts in Raleigh before.

Starting to have concerns about dry air for RDU

so far QPF doesn't appear to be an issue. We just have to watch those temps.

6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much.

This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see.

My final call:

Sleet reported in Garner as well.

I have seen sleet in the 40's plenty of times.

There have been a few sleet reports north of Raleigh already today as an FYI.

I never said it was a final call but yeah the sleet concern is always a real one in central NC.

My latest call map (risky knowing bust potential is high):

My rough call:

NWS Raleigh is not very enthused and is mainly east of 95 with it.

It is pretty much holding for the time being.

We are all hoping to be Nammed for sure LOL. Afternoon discussions will be crucial.

I don't think it would be as much of an issue in Winston and GSO.

Yeah ideally I would like to see everyone get in on it but we know how it works down here. This was much easier in my few years in BTV.

As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping.

That would be fine by me but I seriously doubt these numbers verify. If we get a dusting that is a win this year though.

Lock that one in . Nice frontogenisis

Most likely the sanitarium will become much more active.

I know I will be ready to position myself in any potential jackpot zone should anything materialize.

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

12Z GFES ENS members: