eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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Thanks for the trolling effort there. We are well aware.
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Probably a fairly even split between Ice and Rain.
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For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW
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Which will all be wiped clean when we go to 40 and rain. I am not sure we will see 3-5 inches either before the mix.
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Yep its looking like a done deal for Raleigh. Maybe next year we can reel in a 6+ event.
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Yeah the writing is on the wall. It isn't our storm. Maybe next year.
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Awful run for us in Raleigh. Any wintry precip definitely goes to rain in that scenario. I think the fat lady is warming up.
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After that disaster strikes and it tracks right to Raleigh:
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Coastal takes hold somewhere just inland in SC:
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The GEFS won't save Raleigh on this run but here are the members:
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Ahahah yeah for sure. Wish we could push the big totals farther east but I will settle for glazed tree shots I guess LOL. (I am in the bargaining phase of the grief cycle here).
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A rough go at a call map for now:
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For RDU the dry slot cuts off the ice after a solid hit but the backside deform band misses to the NW. Another few ticks east and we could get into that.
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It is a little better this run. Puts the ice corridor right up US-1:
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The coastal crosses over the Sounds rather than up 95. This would mean a front end thump to mix, perhaps a dry slot and maybe catching a little on the back end:
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It is the ICON but it transfers to a coastal low in the deep south with the new primary taking hold off Savannah/Charleston. The old low weakens south of Columbus, GA
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NAM puts the baroclinic zone right where you want it and where it makes the most sense normally:
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I am also a photographer so cold rain doesn't exactly make for great weather shots lol. ZR can if there is a enough on the trees though.
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That is the problem is we go over to 38F and rain ultimately. Also the warm nose almost always overperforms compared to the models so it will mostly be sleet/ZR then rain.
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It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it.
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I think my last post was deleted but the 18z GFS was a glimmer of hope. It will take a lot to pull this from the grave at RDU but we shall see. I hate seeing the Euro stop at 90 hours for 18z.
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You are looking good there too.
