eyewall

The 12z Euro says no.

Those few tenths are cold chasing the moisture and we know how that usually plays out. Cue the Price is Right losing horn:

12z GFS is definitely a disaster.

Looks like up to 70 mph gusts coming for the western slopes of the Greens!

NWS Raleigh AFD:
 

Given precipitation type, it is still too early to determine
details, but GFS forecast soundings show potential for at least a
period of snow, mainly in the north and west. 12z ECMWF and GFS
ensembles have trended more wintry, with a majority now depicting
measurable snow in the Piedmont.

7 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

The 12z Euro is getting close to being something. 


 

I really feel this is going to be VA storm. We don't have a sustained cold air feed.

Hard to believe we already have to write off January. This is looking like last year.

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Cutters,,,,Mercy,,,,

the morning operational GFS wipes out almost the rest of January.

It sounded like a tropical storm outside when the line rolled through. Definitely some high sustained winds for a few minutes.

Winds definitely picking up in Raleigh. Just had the lights flicker.

The Mariana supercell is a dangerous one for sure moving into SW GA.

Buckle up this could be a wild ride even though it isn't the snow we have been looking for.

Yep it is going to be a wild ride all the way up to NC tomorrow.

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words. 

The relentless ridging in the southeast. This year may very well be another in a long stretch of losses.

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent.

Hard to say exactly where it will setup but they did say the mountains actually have a higher risk of it as well.

Note: this is likely overdone but gusts to 40 outside thunderstorms are likely. NWS Raleigh also mentions the possibility of a gravity wave event which could locally enhance winds for a short time.

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

These are often overdone but 30-40 mph seems reasonable. RAH is thinking a potential gravity wave event may occur which would briefly induce higher winds.

Glad I stayed home. Looks like the under won as it usually does on ZR events.

On 1/3/2024 at 12:58 PM, lurker said:

Here's a taste of what the traffic will be like (from 2017):

 

I went to Williamston, SC for 2017 outside of Greenville and it took 10 hours to get back to Raleigh, NC after. The worst traffic is right after, not before without question.

It looks like Blacksburg has cut back on ice amounts a bit so I may stay put.

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

As someone that grew up in the area, I second what @olafminesawsaid. I’d also recommend considering Doughton Park, the Stone Mtn area or Ennice. All do really well in these CAD escarpment events. 

Yeah I don't have the time to get up all the way to Ennice. I think Fancy Gap is my best bet for now. I always am weary because these ZR events tend to end sooner than forecast a lot of times.

51 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

Yeah that is true. I am going to follow today's trends and make a call on go or no go. You really need to get to that 0.2 inch plus territory to make pics worthwhile.

I am debating if it will be worth it for some ice shots to drive over to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock. It is certainly a marginal setup.

Chances are going up that we zero out for the second winter in a row snow wise.