eyewall

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z GFS is under 1” total rainfall for almost the entire state of NC and most of SC and almost all that comes from a FROPA in about a week. Not good. Mountain areas do look to have semi consistent afternoon storms though that could help but there just aren’t any large scale storms to help region wide 

This is giving me 2007 worries. 

I have a feeling we will start to see that extreme drought cover more real estate in the next few weeks and some exceptional areas pop up.

It isn't just us. Much of the West is in real trouble with all time record low snowpack.

My concern for you all is the snowpack being at all time record lows in many spots across the West and what that will mean for water supply and fires. 

40 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I had hope that the cold front on Friday would at least bring some showers but it is looking more and more anemic.  

The death ridge in early April won't help either.

The pollen count is not as high as Georgia here yet but the haze is starting to show up and there is a brush fire south of Raleigh:

Day 1 of the real pollening. The haze is likely to get quite a bit worse with no rain in sight. 

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That should make Wake County people feel a little better lol.

5 hours ago, EstorilM said:

Looks like weather.us

 

…also, wouldn’t this be up there with some of the most powerful strikes ever recorded? At least around here? Average is like 30kA right? 
 

I did NOT think there were any unique atmospheric variables at play last night. 

You can exceed 300kA with positive strikes for sure.

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Probably will be a bit quite for a while...unless the GFS is to be believed

Lock it in:

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Gainesville, FL (aka Hogtown) got down to 30! Impressive radiation like usual.

KTLH 30

KSAV 31 (official SAV station, the airport)

KSVN 34 (very likely more representative of my low)

Definitely impressive for this point in March!

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One red flag with this system is pretty academic but with high end events in this area they almost always have significant outbreaks west of here before arriving. This event underperformed massively the day before, with just 6 weak tornado reports. Not much science to that as the atmosphere is fluid and a system can certainly change overnight but usually major severe outbreaks in the south start out in midwest and move into our area 

Yeah I knew it when the air didn't have the feel of an outbreak day like it did on 4/16/2011. On top of that as you stated the winds were calm and that is definitely not how it goes around here on most high end days. 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

Yeah overall it truly was a bust yesterday and even on air meteorologists are basically saying the same. They are taking a beating today. 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

I am getting more wind now than at any point during the storms.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

Yeah this is an epic bust for sure. One of the worst I have seen. The bad thing about it is the cry wolf syndrome that will follow.

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Severe aside, one thing this system is over producing on is snow in northern Alabama. Web cams around Huntsville are impressive right now. I think a lot of that area missed on snow this winter so this is a pretty solid event for them. Looks like some 2-3” amounts likely 

https://algotraffic.com/Cameras

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think it’s gotta be walked back at this point. I knew when I woke up to thunder and light rain with the main event focused around noon vs late afternoon there just wouldn’t be time for the atmosphere to recover. What’s really surprising given what’s going on in mid levels is how tame the wind is at the surface, just a light southerly breeze. No gusts at all. That to me screams stabilized lower levels 

Agreed On the big days here it is usually very windy even outside storms. 4/16/2011 being the prime example. The problem is this was a cry wolf event and so when we do get a big one that may be an issue.

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Do you think they’ll adjust the wording or bring hazard levels down? Nothing about this seems high end for severe at all just looking out the window and glancing at radar

I don't see how they maintain the MDT. This should be a Slight to be honest. A high shear low cape event. I think they walk it back to ENH and shift it east a bit but we shall see.

I don't see this being very chaseable to be honest and also I am not sure on the instability factor with all these showers. Looks messy.

The storm motions are going to be very rapid so it will basically be one shot at each storm for most chasers. 

We have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. 15% tor and 60% wind. 

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
   Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
   probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
   the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
   to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
   outlooks.

   A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
   of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
   Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
   intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
   into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
   northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
   This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.

   Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
   by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
   Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
   Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
   portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
   intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
   the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
   Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
   a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
   of morning storms.

   Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
   favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
   of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
   reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
   with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
   setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
   tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
   boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
   outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
   intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
   corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
   eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
   the afternoon.