eyewall

15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Could this be the most depressed this Forum has ever been?

Considering most are closing in on futility records in terms of days without snow I would think so.

Well we have managed to have another dumpster fire of a winter as of the time of this post for 2023-2024 so here is to looking well ahead when it may be over 1000 days for some since the last 1 inch or greater of snowfall.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Only up to 30 as we approach noon under full sun without snow. Impressive cold 

If we had a snowpack it would probably be in the low 20s at best today.

19 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This isn’t designed to be a pessimistic post but the reality is that outside of the mountains, we’re all going to have to dial back our expectations going forward and we should ignore the Mets who love to throw out lofty analog years every given winter.

 

The oceans are cooking right now. The Atlantic is breaking all-time records for warmth this time of year and a warm pacific has contributed to an absurdly bad pacific pattern for us not only now but for years. It was challenging to get snow decades ago and it’s a big ask now when our region is constantly torn between mild pacific patterns and a SER that just can’t help itself with the Caribbean temperatures 100 miles off our coastlines. 

We need a major volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike at this point.

Could easily slip away and it is a longshot already. The good news is no additional tick north in the happy hour run. This is the last hope before we torch for a bit:

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 RDU had no measurable snow in both Dec and January during 9 of the 31 moderate or stronger El Niños since 1888-9. Here’s how much measurable they got Feb+:

1903: 0”

1914: 17.2”

1915: 14.3”

1919: 3.3”

1924: 4.5”

1941: 1.8”

1952: 4.7”

1983: 11.8”

1992: 0”

 So, 3 of the 9 had big late winters. In the list above, 1914’s 17.2” is the snowiest Feb+ of the 31 moderate+ Nino winters on record while 1915’s 14.3” is 2nd snowiest of the 31. 1983’s 11.8” is 4th snowiest. So, 3 of the 4 snowiest Feb+ moderate+ Nino winters had no snow in both D & J.

 OTOH, 2 of the 9 were shutouts (1903 and 1992). (Of the 31 total, 7 had no snow Feb+.)

 The average Feb+ for the 9 Dec-Jan shutouts was 6.4” or near the longterm average. Most of this (average of 5.4”) occurred Feb 15+. So, 2024 may very well be a very long season.
 

 But as shown above, the average is derived from a wide range from 1/3 of them being very big late seasons and 2/9 of them being shutouts. It will be interesting to see where 2024 ends up.

Please no 1903 or 1992. We need 1914.

A tick northward with the Friday light snow chance. Rinse, wash, repeat:

On 1/10/2024 at 3:29 PM, msuwx said:

Writing off 21 days with tons of arctic air in the pattern is an interesting position. 

We zeroed out on this pattern.

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I fairly understand why the cold delivery had failed so far, but I don’t get why the moisture delivery has also failed. GSO has only had a piddling .02 inches out of this entire system.  Is it downsloping? But why did Central Virginia and Northern VA get more precip?

A product of the storm track and the flexing of the southeast death ridge.

Upper 30's and rain is the best we can manage from this cold shot lol.

Best we can do here is 39F and rain lol.

Congrats to those who got nailed last night.

26 minutes ago, JoshM said:

The winter outlook for those east of the Mountains …

 

 

At least for the remainder of January. We are going to the wire once again.

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

729 days for me. 1/16/22

Ugh yeah pretty awful to say the least. 

For Raleigh the last 1 inch or better snowfall was 725 days ago.

Well the clock is running that is for sure. It gets much harder after Valentine's Day. Waiting out the next warmup is going to be rough.  Friday still cant be ruled out but it wouldn't be much. The Happy Hour GFS is looking rather paltry.

22 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

12 Z GFS a little closer to coast with Miller B   
and Canadian a little further south.  Temps marginal but higher rates may overcome before dynamics wane.  It’s still a long shot but not impossible.
 

it’s sad but at least we can track something.     It’s our last chance for 2 weeks.  We can only hope that positive PNA can save the day.  The SE ridge may not be as much of a factor and we could possibly cash in.

Yeah this one is make or break for the morale around here I think.

Dallas, Texas now has a higher season total on snowfall than Raleigh for this year. The GFS is still trying for the 19th.

39 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said:

I rarely post much, just really enjoy reading and learning. The majority of your posts belong in another forum. Most are written presumably out of frustration and are not constructive. With all due respect.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the hot take.

Miss after miss after miss. We're going to be running out of time all too soon. We are on track to be blanked for the second winter in a row.

If the 19th is a miss I am starting the Countdown to Winter 2024-2025 thread.

44 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

24 hour snow map and total for the week. That right there is a beautiful map!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

12z GFS is giving central NC that inch primarily from the 19th/20th system.

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Writing is on the wall. All these posts for a 3 day cold snap then back to the drawing board till it “reloads”. Really not sure it can still snow here

#ClimateChanged

I think it is about to get a lot busier in here with that 12z Euro run