eyewall

9 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Does anyone have the percent chance of cloud cover map?

Basically these are percentages on the right so 0.9 equates to 90% (ie cloudy) and 0.1 would be 10% (mostly clear).

6 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

I was supposed to be at Beech the weekend of the 16 incher, but called into work 48 hours before i was supposed to leave. It stings now more than ever that I missed that.

ugh I am sorry.

28 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You should be skiing at Smuggs for this!

Too much risk of cloud cover in New England

I can tell you don't settle for 90% or even 99%! Get into totality as it is a different world! I will be in Texas for this one. In 2017 I was on the centerline in South Carolina.

On 2/10/2024 at 9:50 PM, powderfreak said:

Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today.  Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius.

Just another February day.  The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day.  Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.

Ski on ball bearings?

All I can say is I am glad I took that trip to the mountains a few weeks ago when they had back to back snowfalls.

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 

I have to admit as pessimistic as I can be, getting blanked 2 years in a row was not what I expected.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Let’s just hope we don’t continue the trend of getting our dream blocking set up on March 25 as has been the pattern.

Count on it!

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things:

1) SER becomes semi-permanent 

2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate 

Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels 

This really has to be taken into account despite not wanting to talk about the elephant in the room around here.

22 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

CPC predicting rapid return to Nina conditions this summer and increasing through fall.  That makes 4 out of 5 right?  Can we ever get a neutral anymore?  

Neutral would be good, but yeah it would make 4 out 5 winters La Nina years.

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested 

Yep we could cross that 1000 day mark for sure.

Just thought I would mention that we could be back in La Nina next winter so we better cash in on one of these long shots.

18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol.

3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

That's all we've got ATM.

It's kinda like at the end of the night when you know the bar is going to close soon and the only girl left in the place is one who looks pretty good sitting way down at the other end of the bar.  

On this run it is a complete miss.

Congrats VA anyway:

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period.  EPS on board with noise around that time as well.

I can't buy in at 300 hours.

9 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It's been 750 or more days since most of us has been able to enjoy accumulating snow. The next 10 days is going to be spring like. Most people are in the prove it stage with the possible "good" pattern. We were told it was game on from January 15th on. Here we are on Feb 1 with no snow for most of the region and none in sight for at least 2 weeks. 

 

It's also rained over 10 inches for most of the area that past month. 

That about sums it up!

On 1/27/2024 at 4:04 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ve accepted it 

You have successfully completed the 5 stages!

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Per ensemble guidance, the cold is delayed a bit till around the 17th. Will be interesting to watch to see if that timeframe holds as we get closer. Realistically that gives us about a week window to score before we really are fighting an uphill battle against climo. I know I know we’ve had snowstorms around march in the past, it’s just been so long I don’t even remember one so that’s not realistic to expect one. 17th-25th has my attention as our last gasp chance. Didn’t think that’s where we’d be on February 1st but that’s where we are

The writing is on the wall at this point. A 2nd failed year in a row. We will go into record territory if we do end up with no measurable this winter.

Happy hour GFS in the right direction from 12z:

31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If this upcoming ~2 weeks pattern doesn’t produce outside the mountains/foothills somewhere, I think there will be some serious questioning as to whether or not it can snow here anymore 

well if we don't get any measurable this winter it will likely be a record number of days by the time the next winter rolls around.

12z GFS:

Book a hotel room in Elizabeth City or Virginia Beach for a few flakes.

Liquid snow in Raleigh.

Nice! What a different world up there!

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty much in line with what I would expect with this system. A long shot but realistically possible 

So you're telling me there's a chance. Yes!