sbnwx85

Winter Storm Watches are up along the southern shore of Lake Michigan from Cook County, IL to Berrien County, MI. 6-12” possible. Probably more in Porter and LaPorte Counties. Thundersnow possible. Rates of 2-4” per hour. The IWX forecast discussion is one of the best reads in a long time. Winds over 35+ mph, 6+” of snow and leaves on the trees are going to be a perfect recipe for major tree damage. The TV Mets going super conservative due to ground temps are going to have to backtrack big time. The rates and timing will overcome a warm ground in no time. This are going be a memorable event for localized areas.

Although putting 6” down before the lake effect even kicks in is crazy work.

A reminder that NAM stands for Never A Mistake.

NAM dumps overhead for a few hours. In another month that's like three feet of snow, but I'd take 8 in early November. Still lots of leaves on the trees so whoever gets dumped on will also have tree damage and power outages to deal with.

RGEM says congrats, Chicago. This might set some kind of record. /s In all seriousness, Pivotal's output isn't as wild (obvious error in COD's algorithm), spitting out 10" in Chicago thanks to an intense mesolow crashing ashore. NAM and Euro appear to be picking up on a mesolow, as well, but it's a little slower -- coming onshore overnight Sunday. The timing of this early-season lake-effect event favors localized "big dog" totals, as it occurs at night. Plus, lots of deep cold air and a possible Lake Superior connection. Of course, where the bands set up/mesolow forms will be key. Happy tracking!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/ Speaking of updates, WPC has a good one for its snowfall/ice probability maps.

Getting damn near giddy. More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north- northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85 temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this does appear to be something to watch over the next several days. The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+ inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to climatology. Stay tuned.

It was the frostiest morning of the season so far. If you squinted it kind of looked like snow.

Starting to get excited about the potential on this one.

Honored to present the first clown map of the season. We are so back.

The first storm worth watching is showing up on the globals for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Not thread-worthy yet, as there's still a lot to work out, but someone in the sub may see their first flakes/(sticking snow??) of the year. EDIT: Just saw ya'll talking about it in the November thread.

Yeah, probably a couple feet in some spots. A promising sign of how primed the lake is again this season.

Nice rain bands coming off LM today.

Seeing quite a few hail reports in Michigan and N. Indiana.

Already up to 1.5”. Call looking good. What we’ve lacked in severe weather locally we’ve made up for in long-duration thunderstorms.