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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Is that some bright banding on radar west of Frederick?
  2. Yea we've definitely had some head fakes in November where things get cold and even a rogue surprise snow event around Thanksgiving (2013?). Then we warm back in December and folks like me and Ji screech. I'm not asking for some vodka cold December like 1989, just don't want to be mowing the grass while the Christmas decorations are up.
  3. He will always, always push a solution that gives him snow and the east coast nada.
  4. I wholeheartedly agree with this. If we get a stinko Pacific it's game over.
  5. ^gotta fix the NAO problem. Those low heights over Greenland are no bueno.
  6. That background music sounds like something you'd play at a funeral. Interesting to see the tidbit about the average snowfall during an El Nino year though.
  7. They do admit it's a low confidence forecast. Hope they're right.
  8. All of the reservoirs in Baltimore County are running 12 to 18 feet below normal. If we don't get a significant amount of snow to melt into the aquifers this winter, we're going to really be hurting and at risk for wildfires next spring.
  9. Good to see some heights trying to build in Alaska. Wonder if that will chip away at the -PDO.
  10. Dumb question, why are you quoting La Nina winters if we are in an El Nino?
  11. Hopefully this can get some blocking started as we move into mid or late December.
  12. Thanks for the clarification. I've read elsewhere on this board that +NAO Novembers strongly correlate to +NAO/AO winters.
  13. Still no sign of a negative or even neutral NAO/AO. Not a good sign.
  14. Me too. Honestly, I'd like to pattern to flip maybe 5 to 7 days before Christmas then we don't torch the rest of the winter. I know we cannot expect wall-to-wall cold, but having it in the 60s in mid January with bad air quality and no precipitation last winter was just terrible.
  15. Yea. We're more like North Carolina, unfortunately, when it comes to winters anymore. We maybe get 1 good storm every 5 to 10 years.
  16. Doug Kammerer leaning towards the chances of a decent snowstorm or two this winter. Just released his winter forecast on the air. He's going nearly 200% normal snowfall for DCA and "3 or 4 Nor'Easters".
  17. The good news is that as long as this current pattern holds, we can continue surveying and pouring concrete at mesonet sites.
  18. We'll have cold air but no precip this winter. Calling it now.
  19. I'm game to sacrifice through Dec 10th then we flip the pattern. Just please no 75 degree Christmas torch this year.
  20. Yup. Some folks expect to see this classic KU pattern on 3 month climate forecasts and then get upset when they don't see it. It's kind of bizarre.
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