Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.
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Very La Nina-esque, warm/wet then cold/dry.
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But hey, CC is fake.
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This will be a year of lowered expectations. Getting climo will seem like a banner year.
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Kind of wonder if that's the sacrificial storm as we see things shuffle slowly towards a more favorable long wave pattern?
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The short wave responsible for the potential Wednesday event does not get over the upper air network until midday Monday, 12/4. We'll probably see things waffle until the 00z/12z runs on Monday. I know in the past that sometimes the GFS can sniff out a northern stream dominant system quick than the Euro. This event will be an important test case to see if one model is picking up on stuff earlier than the others.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So long as it includes DCA, BWI, and IAD...sure. FWIW, 12z Euro has a weaker, more progressively tilted trough for next Wednesday's storm. It's an issue south of Mason-Dixon, but north of Rt. 30 would still see something. -
Trough on the 12z Euro is weaker and more progressive than the GFS. Canadian is, to my eyes, in between. Kind of interested to see what the UKMET has.
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Just want to get on the board. 2" - 4" is perfect.
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It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Unable to currently share an image, but the 12z GFS gives just the lower third of PA it's first legit shot of a light accumulating snow next Wednesday evening, 12/6. Several moving parts, but things shift for the better at 500mb over the past 24 hours. -
12z GFS op @ HR 153.
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Last year, 2022-2023, my COOP site RSTM2 recorded less than 12 nights below 25 degrees. We already have 4 this season.
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Look at the sharp west coast ridge though. It counteracts the Alaska low temporarily and the ridge crests over Idaho as the trough goes negative over Missouri.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Is that your current temperature, or the overnight low? -
850 temps are good throughout the event north of I-66. The 925 temps are naso good though. Would argue it's a car topper or TV Snow ™ event.
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Yup. We're two weeks behind the average first freeze date of 11/14.
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Lancaster County has a more favorable climo for that compared to BWI, DCA, and IAD. If I could move back to Lancaster, I would.
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I have no illusions about a big storm in December. The 12/2009 event was a total fluke and we'll almost certainly never see something like that again in our lifetimes. A 3" - 5" even for Christmas would be amazing this year. Maybe we score?
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DCA got down to 25 degrees. Nice.
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Just need snow. I'll gladly take a 2" - 4" event.
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Exactly The positioning is bad.
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That Alaska trough is killing us and it has stayng power....
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Yes that was kick ass. Naw it's totally this
