Eskimo Joe

A lot of mesonets are supporting the solar and wind industries without knowing it.

More highlights tomorrow folks!

Some additional tidbits for severe weather. Please note these are conclusions from various presentations and not my own thoughts. 1.) Mesonets that capture solar irradiance (W/m^2) should visualize their data. Gradients in solar irradiance can illustrate CAPE gradients that will support convective initiation. NOTE: The Maryland mesonet will show this once stations are deployed. 2.) The SPC HREF performs poorly with mid level cloud erosion times in cool weather severe episodes, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The cause remains unknown and warrants further study. If the SPC HREF shows an area breaking out into the warm sector, and does not have support from the rest of the CAMS, consider disregarding the SPC HREF. 3.) When forecasting big hail events, the 12z RAOB closest to your location can be helpful in identifying an EML. This is especially true when comparing to special 18z RAOB because the 12z data will feature a comparatively cool surface temperature which lets a forecaster "see" the fingerprint of an EML advecting from Texas or the Mexico highlands.

Going to put this here since it is relevant to severe weather. I'm in Albany, NY this week for the NY State mesonet symposium. Several talks have focused on HRRR verification against the state mesonet sites and ASOS sites. Couple of conclusions that have come up over and over again regarding the HRRR: 1.) The HRRR systematically overpredicts surface winds. 2.) The HRRR performs poorly with initiating boundary layer clouds (cumulus) in days following air mass changes during June, July, August. 3.) The HRRR clearly overmixes the boundary layer, especially in SW flow events, and drops the surface dewpoint too quickly. This causes Surface Based CAPE (SBCAPE) to be between modeled 250-750 j/kg SBCAPE too low. 4.) The HRRR is too quick to mix out low level temperature inversions (The Wedge™ ) during spring convective events.

welcome to the joys of mesoscale forecasting

Dumb question, what makes you confident it will couple?

Watch this thing not couple with the atmosphere or some such and we just see a flood of pacific puke all winter coast to coast.

Not into the bar scene. Just a place where we can get a solid dinner and a nice local beer.

It's New England. You do that well.

One thing to note - the GFS has been advertising Nigel or whatever system is behind Lee to start west of 70W for much longer. System that do so tend to have a higher percentage of affect the east coast of the US more it seems.

I'm going to be in Albany, NY Wed and Thur this week for the NY state mesonet symposium. Are there any decent places in Albany with a nice beer selection? Always looking to hit the local fall beers.

12z GFS really hates y'all. If Lee misses Nigel doesn't.

We get like 3 hours of light rain.

12z OP GFS appears to be into eastern Maine / PEI? The 850/925 low track would suggest some nasty weather from the CT/RI border east.

Would bet that we'll have a much better idea of the storm track over the next 24 hours. All of the players will be either over the upper air network in North America or sampled by the hurricane hunters.

I just got accepted into an emergency management class the week of the 25th that I've been waitlisted for 3 years on. It won't be offered again until autumn 2024. Bank on a hurricane canceling the class.

HRRR likes some PM storms north of I-66 and then another round of storms Tuesday evening.

I was looking at yesterdays run . This is what I get for trying to start a cloudy Monday with no coffee.

M1.00" overnight

On the last few frames of the infrared satellite, you can really see the eye of Lee clear out and become symmetrical.

That little training over Baltimore County has really been impressive. Just sustaining itself.

Yea we've been getting fringed that that activity over Granite. Steady farmer's rain.

Couple of the 18z GEFS appear to want to hook into central or western Long Island.