Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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It seems that over the past couple of runs, the operational GEM, ICON, and GFS all have this precip void over DC Metro.
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GFS appears to be the driest of the guidance right now.
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12z GFS appears to be 1" - 3" across the area. Small area of 4" amounts in NE Maryland according to College of DuPage website.
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If you take a look at the 850 moisture transport map on the SPC mesoanalysis, there's a huge fetch of Atlantic and Caribbean moisture coming into the Carolinas. Really impressive to watch.
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Slow the ICON down by about 12 hours as it passes through and we're talking. Still would lean towards the GFS with the trough.
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It 100% is
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I'd lean towards the GFS post South Carolina. By then it's under the influence of the Mid latitude weather features.
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PWATs near 2" will do that!
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Same. GFS isn't exactly encouraging...Euro appears to be on an island right now.
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That would a gut punch.
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Never count on tropical in these parts for a drought buster.
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NHC is not confused. They're doing an excellent job and have been all season.
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Color me shocked.
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Why do people use the ICON at all? I can't remember when it's ever been correct.
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One thing is for sure, Debby will not suffer cool water temperatures.
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IAD gusted to 41kt.
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IAD about to get cooked. Hope we don't lose LWX radar!
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Loudoun County about to get smoked.
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Based off satellite, it appears that TD 5 is starting to organize more. Lots of towers going up.
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Let's not jinx anything. That's like starting a storm thread in the winter at HR240.
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Double it and we're good.
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I always go Euro in tropical, but by the time it's up in these parts it's interacting with mid latitude weather systems. Would tend to take the under up in these parts, especially from I-95 and points west. We rarely get decent tropical here.
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Wow that's heartbreaking. I-64 gets the goods and we're virtually high and dry.
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How much for DC-Baltimore?
