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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Their timing is okay, but their percentages for the boom/bust scenarios is somewhat befuddling. Having your "official forecast" book ended by two 20% boom/bust options means your only 60% confident in your forecast. That doesn't instill much confidence in their product. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like LWX just nudges POPs for Saturday night to 100% all the way to the Mason Dixon line. I believe it was only 80% or 90% last night. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Too bad it's the FV3...that would be an okay weekend event for everyone. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA. There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Per Wes on FB, he liks 2-4 for DCA and north, 3-5 across S. MD. He thinks LWX's snow map is reasonable. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
DCA will somehow measure incorrectly and they'll have to "highly estimate" an inch of snow. -
Dear God somebody please cleanup Chuck and Jay in the Storm Mode thread.
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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like you and mappy and psu are un for some fun. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
WAA is Warm Air Advection. Warm air riding into colder air. DGZ is Dendritic Growth Zone. If you look at the left side of the image above you will see two dashed red lines and yellow horizontal bars. The bar represent rising air and you want to see the best rising air concentrated within the zone of the clouds where snow crystals form. The longer and deeper you can sustain that, the better the snow accumulations will be. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
His first Tweet was sarcastic. -
Too long...time for a long break.
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Woke up to a notification of 200+ posts and thought things finally broke our way. Alas it's just shitposting and wish casting. We need storm mode.
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Yes that's the first one issued by LWX and it activates WEA.
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It's not just QPF that gets you good snow. Having prolonged lift through the DGZ is equally vital, otherwise its mangled flakes that don't accumulate.
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TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC.
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Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area.
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HM references this map a lot so I would argue he's using PA/NJ as the Northern Mid Atlantic:
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**** man that's amazing. Having a mean that far out is straight up EJ level.
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To my eye, E 14/19/21/27/33/35/37/38/43/44/46 are pretty bad.
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20% of the members would cause a meltdown (DCA/BWI/IAD <1"). It's a nudge in the the right direction but the Euro seems to be the most aggressive here.
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Wheels falling off the event. Watching people grasp at straws in the storm thread is hilarious. People don't know when to quit in the MA.
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Between this and Wes's earlier post, Randy must be running naked through the National Mall.
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Yes, I checked the 00z / 06z...don't really see anything worth celebrating yet. If we're seeing this for a few more runs then sure, but we've had this time and time again where folks get suckered off one fluke run of the GFS.
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Yup. Looks like a few big hits skewing the mean. Many outright busts in there.
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The mental gymnastics by so many to will some snow is................impressive.