raindancewx

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now. SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure. Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9 21NOV2018 22.6 0.8 26.3 1.3 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.0

This is one of the widest spreads I've ever seen for Albuquerque within 84 hours - literally near 0 rain to near 10 inches of snow. I've been leaning toward a coating to three with some rain, but I'd like to see the European win.

This would be a good little storm for Albuquerque - 24 hours through Thanksgiving Morning.

Some re-development of the warmth below the surface, but that little cold area may make it up anyway. That's kind of what happened in 1992-93, which was very similar to this year in June-Sept at the surface, before a small cold area showed up Nino 3.4 at the surface in winter. Then, in early 1993, more warmth surfaced and El Nino returned.

I'd really like to see another 0.7"+ precipitation here by the end of the month. We haven't had a record wet-month for the 1931-now era in Albuquerque since September 2013 when 3.97" fell. The GFS and European are really struggling with the storms for NM & CO this week again. I think they'll start to have a unified message by Sunday Night though. Weather.com currently has a snowy Wednesday Night for Albuquerque, which would be a mess for travel. There are some striking similarities to the Fall pattern so far, both in the US and for global ocean patterns/oscillations. One thing that would really cement last year as a good analog is the CFS depiction of a positive SOI burst (La Nina) in December, at basically the same magnitude as last December. I don't think the once-in-a-century cold places like Billings experienced last February would necessary repeat, but you'd probably see another warm month in the SE US with cold displaced somewhere to the NW of that zone if the SOI verified at +10 in December. It'd be a huge change from November if nothing else, since we are running around -9 so far.

CFS has a +10 SOI in December... It was +9.14 in Dec 2018.

CFS is starting to go to my December forecast, with a cold center of the US. Here is the scary thing: it has a big +SOI (La Nina) in December. That happened last year. If it happens again, the South will roast later in the winter. See how the red is by 150W, 15S and the blue is by Australia around 15S? That's where Darwin & Tahiti are. In December 2018, Darwin was 1006.2 MB, and Tahiti was 1011.7 MB for a +9.14 SOI. Map below has ~1006 for Darwin and ~1012 for Tahiti.

So far, the Northwest mountains have been getting screwed on precipitation, while the Southwest has been doing OK to well.

Not looking great for people forecasting a dry winter in the Southwest. If the storm forecast over NM verifies next week, we may have record November precipitation for Albuquerque for the last 100 years. Already at 1.25" (average is 0.46"), and the record is 1.93". Already top five for wetness. Long-term, November precipitation tends to indicate January precipitation here fairly well too. Not to mention the fact that May precipitation here is highly correlated (r-squared near 0.3) to Nov-Jan precipitation totals here. Wet May here favors warm East/tornado patterns fairly often. Here is the composite for what follows after particularly wet Novembers in Albuquerque. It stays wet. Pretty El Nino-y too, which is shocking. It's not really that surprising though, this has been signaled since September - a big -SOI September is strongly correlated to a very wet January in the West, especially Northern California.

We're at 1.25" precipitation in November through 5 pm 11/21 in Albuquerque. The storm that times up with the big SOI drop around 11/18 is still shown for 11/28 or so. The 1.25" is already near record November precipitation, wettest November here since 2004. Since 1931, the record wettest November here is 1991, around 1.9" - we may beat that actually, as it may rain or snow a bit tomorrow before the 11/28 system. In the past 90 years, November is correlated pretty well to January for precipitation - typically the wetter November is, the wetter January is. Last big wet November here was in 2016, and then January 2017 was very wet too.

Gary Lezak winter forecast is supposed to be out next week. It's been pretty cold Oct-Nov in Missouri/Kansas, which is where is I had the cold centered in winter, I imagine he'll have something similar since he looks at Fall patterns for the LRC. Might not be super wet though.

This looks pretty good right now. Denver is warmer than normal through 11/20 after a cold start, and we're getting a big snow storm 11/21 in New Mexico. Albuquerque is probably just above normal now through 11/20, but will fall below again by the end of the month. For December, I had the center of the US pretty cold, including Colorado and New Mexico, with temperatures trending to slightly above average on both coasts. There is a pretty strong tendency in El Ninos for whatever the US pattern in the second half of October is to shift East, and become the December pattern. That matches my analogs. Last year, you had tremendous heat centered in Montana in the second half of October, and that shifted East keeping the North/East warm. The H2 Oct, but East thing has worked for all El Nino Decembers since 2009 - will be curious to see how it does this year. H2 October Shifted East My Raw Analogs, but +2F for a warmer Nino 4, looks damn close to the spatially adjusted Oct 16-31 observations:

One thing that I can't help but notice with last Fall is how well each two week period corresponded to Winter 2018-19. Will be very interesting to see if that happens again with some similar features (AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, MJO timing) to last year. H1 October was February - not as extreme, but close (a lot of the blue areas in Feb were 10-25 below average) In December, the placement was somewhat different, but the cold West Texas warm North idea was there - its just the heat moved East. If the heat had been centered a bit East over ND in H2 October, the cold would have shot up into the West. The first half of November looked like a de-amplified January, with warm coasts and a much colder middle of the US. If the timing relationships were to hold, January & February would be the similar months to last year. December would be very different - with the center of the US very cold, warmer on the coasts (that's what my forecast had, by the way). Here is a look at how this has played out in some recent El Ninos for December 2015 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - similar shift East of the heat like in 2018. 2014 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - some shift in the heat again to the East. Again, some shift east in the heat over Montana in 2009. Now, here is 2019 - I think you have to expect the cold center over Kansas to move East given the recent history? So slightly warm coasts, cold middle. That was my forecast too.

These are (tentative) top SOI monthly matches for Sept/Oct/Nov objectively, for the past 90 years or so - Year Sept Oct Nov Distance 2019 -12.7 -5.2 -9.0 0.0 1951 -11.2 -12.3 -8.5 9.1 1987 -10.6 -5.3 -1.5 9.7 1932 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 9.9 2014 -6.6 -8.2 -8.0 10.1 1957 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 10.2 1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7 11.5 Looks familiar to me...although I didn't forecast this exactly for December. I do expect the composite warmth/cold to be shifted somewhat east. SOI has had some really impressive negative bursts this month: Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Nov 2019 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 -8.52 -8.87 18 Nov 2019 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 -7.24 -8.68 17 Nov 2019 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 -5.97 -8.53 16 Nov 2019 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 -5.59 -8.31 15 Nov 2019 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 -5.56 -8.25 14 Nov 2019 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 -5.67 -8.17 13 Nov 2019 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 -5.90 -8.28 12 Nov 2019 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 -5.76 -8.39 11 Nov 2019 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 -5.18 -8.48 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.63

My analogs had a -NAO in December, but its kind of wasted in the Northeast since the -NAO isn't at its peak power as a cold signal in December, while Nino 4 warmth is at its peak as a warm signal in December - they more or less battled to a draw in the Northeast in 2009 when both were extremely potent at the opposite sign (29.72C in Nino 4 Dec 2009, -1.93 NAO in Dec 2009 - both near records). There really aren't any cold Decembers in the Northeast when Nino 4 is 29.5C or warmer. I don't think we have a -1.9 NAO in December, but we may have a 29.7C Nino 4 - it's been around 29.5C lately. I mentioned in my outlook that with Nino 4 near record warm, my blend likely needed to be upped 2F - so I did 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018, and then added 2F. For the NE, the (weak) tendency is that each 0.1C of warming in Nino 4 in Fall (peaking in Dec) is worth about 0.15F hotter highs in December, although the relationship is curved, with the Super La Ninas also warm if Nino 4 gets toward 27.0C. I haven't looked in a little while but I think the coldest Decembers tend to be in the 27.5-28.5C range in Nino 4, and 2010, 2013, 2017 were in all in that zone.

I like 10-30 inches for our mountains by Friday morning, and then maybe a bit more on Friday. Something like 1.00-1.25" at a 22:1 ratio for the highest mountains. Not sure if it will verify, but my gut says there will be some dry bulb magic with this system late, and it might (briefly) snow down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet, with a quick inch even in Albuquerque on Thursday Night or Friday Morning.

Pretty much identical this week to 2018 outside Nino 1.2 The warmth below Nino 3 is surfacing now. Warm pool to the West should thin then re-develop. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9

200m+ of warm water below the surface basically east of 130W now. Much less warmth from 130W-170W., with actually a lot of cold. There is a push of warm water moving East, but I think you have to assume there will be a fairly rapid transition to, or at least toward an East based El Nino starting in December. The cold water should at least thin the warmth at the surface over time by Nino 4. There is still some cold water at the surface near South America, so the warmth won't win out initially, but it should in the next few weeks. The event could end up basin-wide again, like last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up East based late in the winter. It seems like it takes about ~one week for every 10m of warm/cold subsurface water to surface. So you'd be looking at an East-based El Nino or even a 2016-17 pattern (warm by Indonesia, warm by Peru, cold Middle) by February. That would be consistent with my analogs which had a big warm up nationally in mid or late winter.

1953, 1983, and 1992 all had a major SW storm around Nov 20 when I did my analogs - I think those might be good precip analogs for Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. I don't think they'll work for the Northwest or California as well. A blend of 1953/1992 has been a pretty decent match to precipitation totals and timing in Albuquerque for close to six months now. The idea with 1983 in there is that occasionally some kind of Blue Norther level cold front will run into moisture coming in from the subtropical jet, and someone will get smoked for snow in New Mexico or Colorado or Texas. I had 2009/2018 in there too, and then 1995 because we should have some extended dry/warm periods in the SW too. There was another big SOI crash 11/16-11/17, so have to watch for something around 11/27. The models are already hinting at it actually.

This is what the European had earlier today through Friday at 6 am. It should be a great event for SW Colorado snow. A tropical system in late-October 2018 also came into the SW last year too. In some ways, the pattern nationally seems like last year, but delayed by 25-30 days. We had 1-3" widespread rains and some snow around 10/23 last year.

I post Southwest stuff because your precipitation patterns are correlated to ours in El Ninos, especially for snowfall. Once we hit our averages last February I was pretty much certain you guys wouldn't get to yours. The AMO cooling was actually a reference to the NE anyway - you guys have been pretty dry. Fall doesn't really indicate temperature patterns too well in winter, but it's usually not terrible for precip patterns.

The negative PDO in winter correlates to a warm Southeast and a cold Northwest - with the NAO forcing a more winter styled pattern in October when it was negative, that was exactly what we saw in October with the PDO negative. Saying "the PDO has been positive since 2014" completely misses the point. The trend is down. Look at the transition by Nov-Apr: 2012-13: -0.40 2013-14: +0.38 2014-15: +2.07 2015-16: +1.70 2016-17: +1.07 2017-18: +0.30 2018-19: +0.51 2019-20: Since 1931, there are no Nov-Apr periods above +0.5 after the PDO is 0 to -1 in October. It will probably be right around 0 or somewhat negative. A cold Nino 1.2 in October also strongly favors that the PDO values in Fall will fall from winter/spring. So far, the cold in November is exactly where you'd expect it to be based on a strong negative SOI in September. Look at the green areas on the SOI map and the places in the US that are cold. I'd imagine once all the warm lows and moisture come out from our storms this week in the Southwest, quite a bit of the cold will burn off, but we'll see. I don't think the models have that built in yet. We're still not that different from last year this Fall - the PDO went negative for a brief moment last year too after all, although not to -0.45.

As long as the waters away from the coast are much warmer than next to the coast, it is just a warm version of the negative PDO. It's not like October was that different but it was -0.45 on the JISAO index. I'm not disputing that the waters along the West Canada coast are still somewhat warm, but relatively speaking, they're colder than the waters south of Alaska.

El Nino with a -PDO November. Indian Ocean is kind of nuts compared to last year too. In real +PDO years, you have the warm ring around the cold waters.

There is a tropical storm in the East Pacific moving North ahead of the system, so I think a pretty widespread precip event is likely. My analogs had several years with a big storm around 11/20 in the SW, so that looks right, at least for now. For NM & Southern Colorado it's probably a rain event initially, even 8,000-9,000 feet up initially, but it would go over to snow later, down to pretty low elevations by Friday. My analogs implied around 0.25"-0.50" for NM with the system - wouldn't be shocked if it came in higher given the dying tropical system plus the other sources for moisture.