raindancewx

I saw. My analog blend of 1953-54 (x2), 1983-84 (x2), 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-10 (x3), 2018-19 had Boston at 8.5 inches in December, and about 40 in total. So I don't see any big issues for what I had yet. CPC has ONI at +0.3C now for SON. They raised October as I expected, from this - 2019 8 26.91 26.91 0.00 2019 9 26.77 26.80 -0.03 2019 10 27.19 26.75 0.44 To this - 2019 8 26.91 26.91 0.00 2019 9 26.77 26.80 -0.03 2019 10 27.22 26.75 0.46 2019 11 27.23 26.75 0.48 Not much. Keep in mind, long-term averages for Oct-Feb in Nino 3.4 temps are 26.5C - so this borderline event in ONI sense is warmer than several events considered El Ninos historically. 1977 9 27.11 26.51 0.60 1977 10 27.34 26.48 0.86 1977 11 27.18 26.46 0.72 1969 9 27.15 26.34 0.81 1969 10 27.34 26.33 1.01 1969 11 27.11 26.35 0.76 1968 9 26.72 26.34 0.38 1968 10 26.75 26.33 0.42 1968 11 27.20 26.35 0.85 1958 9 26.40 26.15 0.25 1958 10 26.45 26.03 0.41 1958 11 26.75 26.10 0.65 1953 9 27.00 26.14 0.85 1953 10 26.87 26.01 0.86 1953 11 26.88 26.06 0.82 1951 9 27.22 26.14 1.08 1951 10 27.20 26.01 1.19 1951 11 27.25 26.06 1.19 In more recent times, we're pretty close to 2004, 2006, 2014. 2014 9 27.01 26.80 0.21 2014 10 27.16 26.75 0.40 2014 11 27.46 26.75 0.71 2006 9 27.32 26.80 0.52 2006 10 27.42 26.75 0.66 2006 11 27.70 26.75 0.95 2004 9 27.52 26.80 0.72 2004 10 27.44 26.75 0.68 2004 11 27.36 26.75 0.61

SOI has popped positive... Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 2 Dec 2019 1012.38 1007.35 6.80 -9.07 -8.48 1 Dec 2019 1012.31 1007.80 4.10 -9.40 -8.74 QBO is still positive. Looks like 2002 more than 1995 now. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 -999.00 Solar activity for the six months to Nov 2019, was the lowest six month average (0.8/month) in any six-month period since Jun-Nov 1823 according to the SILSO data. The 12-month average to November 2019 was down to 3.8, lower than the 5.5 in the period ending November 2008. PDO still looks slightly negative in November. Warmth east of Japan shouldn't be there in a warm PDO, and the ring of warmth right along the Western North American coast isn't there, the warmth is in the 'east of Japan' area and it fades toward Alaska & Canada. Compared to last November, I'd say the PDO is more negative this year, and it was -0.05 in Nov 2018. Nino 1.2 has popped positive, right in time for Christmas, as our Peruvian friends have been observing for hundreds of years. The reading for Nino 3.4 is probably going to be about 27.25C on the monthly data, which I would consider an El Nino reading, given the 1951-2010 November average SST in Nino 3.4 is 26.5C. CPC uses 26.75C as their baseline (it is the 1986-2015 average) in November. So it's real close either way. The little cold pocket of water that has been showing up below Nino 3.4 does seem to be surfacing as the warmth to the east surfaces, so this is becoming less of a Modoki El Nino by the day at this point for now. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8

Nov 1991: 1.93" precip in Albuquerque. Nov 2019: 1.99" precip in Albuquerque. (1991 was the record for Nov here for the past 100 years). I think because the IOD is enhancing the response you'd get from the subtropical jet-stream for an El Nino this weak, 1991 is probably a good precipitation analog nationally. Not really convinced for temperatures. The models depicting a positive SOI for December may not be too wrong - it looks neutral to positive for most of the next ten days on the European, although their might be one big drop in a a couple days which would support a big storm in the SW mid-month, and then maybe a pattern change nationally. The Canadian may actually be trying to do 1965, 2018 for its forecasts because of the SOI pattern. SOI Sept Oct Nov 1965 -13.5 -11.0 -16.7 2018 -8.5 +2.6 +0.6 Blend -11.0 -4.2 -8.1 2019 -12.7 -5.2 -9.5

The 10/31 forecast from the Canadian for November, as well as the 11/30 forecast for December both look like a blend of 1965 & 2018 on that model. The Canadian forecast from 11.30.18 for December 2018 was actually pretty bad, unlike the winter forecast. The subsurface data for November came in for 100-180W, top 300m. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Best blend I could find was this - 100-180W Sept Oct Nov 1986 0.65 0.95 0.52 1986 0.65 0.95 0.52 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1998 -2.15 -2.35 -2.33 2005 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 2005 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 Blend 0.10 0.55 0.27 2019 0.00 0.70 0.26 Crazily enough...it looks identical to last year? So I am skeptical. I tried to respect the subsurface features though - big warm up in October and then the big cool down in November.

The Canadian Model has the El Nino for winter now. I don't think this is right, but it has the "Nino 4 warm" pattern, with the US roasting in December, except the SW. Interestingly, it has the NE somewhat cooler. I think there will be more cold in the middle of the US than shown, a lot of snow pack is coming to the middle of the US and western Canada from what I can see. 11.30 run for Dec 10.31 run for Dec The winter look is a drier 2004. Last year, the November idea for Dec-Feb wasn't completely wrong, for what its worth.

For the 2010s (2010-11 to 2019-20), snow frequency has really improved quite a bit over the 2000s decade. We're pretty likely to get several more snowy months by May so this graphic will have to updated when the eight month cold season is over, instead of just 1/4 over. If we finish the season above 13.5" snow - a coin-flip at this point - that 6.9" for the decade would match or exceed the 7.34" for the 2000s but without the heavy concentration of snow this decade in December 2006. We're already at four Oct-May periods with over 7 inches of snow in the 2010s (2011-12, 2014-15, 2015-16 2018-19), the 2000s had two (2000-01, 2006-07). We'll likely have a fifth in 2019-20 too. Statistically, the seasons with at least two inches of snow in Albuquerque are far more likely to be snowy or even very snowy. None of the years with over two inches of snow in November have had under 5.5" for Oct-May. Years with at least two inches of snow in Albuquerque average 10.6 days with accumulating snow - all others are only 8.1. So we likely still have around 8-9 snowy days left here. We're about due for a season in the high-teens for snow here and it's ~4x more likely than usual now, although still less likely to happen than to happen.

The CFS is still showing a +SOI look for December. Part of me thinks some kind of reigning in of the subtropical jet stream is due. November 2019 has just topped 1991 to become the wettest November in over 100 years in Albuquerque - and it happened in essentially two weeks.

I had 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard with the Nov 27-28 storm. The airport had 3.9". The general totals city wide seem to have been 4-8 inches. Mountain snow pack is in excellent shape as of this morning.

SOI is -9.8 for the past 30-days, -9.3 for the past 90 days, and -10 for November to date. I've got 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard, with near record precipitation for November (1.65") through 11 am 11/28. A lot of that near record precipitation is snow...which is certainly more of an El Nino thing than a Neutral thing here - PDO still looks somewhat negative to me for November - you can have warm waters on the NW North America coast if they are relatively cold compared to waters off to their West and have a -PDO month. It's a relational calculation, not absolute like ENSO, where warm is El Nino, cold is La Nina. Subsurface still looks warm to me. The little cold pocket is going to get its ass kicked in the coming weeks. The warm waters continue to surface by Peru as we transition out of the Modoki El Nino to a basin wide event.

Definitely a real snow storm here - this is I-25 and Paseo Random Twitter pics -

Albuquerque went from around 40F with a 12F dew point at 2 pm, to about 31F with a 25F dew point at 7:30, thanks to the magic of evaporative cooling. Some accumulating snow already where I am, with the airport already seeing some too officially.

For anyone curious, here is a list of the major Indian Ocean Dipole events in Sept-Nov for 1880-2004. This is built into my analog system when I look at the Pacific to some extent, although I don't give it much weight in winter, except as a tie-breaker. It's more important in Fall. Part of how I had 1994 last year. https://iri.columbia.edu/~blyon/REFERENCES/P38.pdf

Weaker and more West based than last year, but certainly a Modoki El Nino at least for Fall (we seem to be transitioning to a basin-wide look though for actual winter). Japan uses 165E-140W, 10N-10S as their Nino 3.4 ("Box A") - that zone is definitely in an El Nino look. The waters by Peru are colder too. So more of a Modoki than last year. Will be curious to see if the +SOI the CFS continues to show for December has to do with the Indian Ocean Dipole flipping this month, hard to get the Australia part of the +SOI without that.

I went with 1-4", 2-5", 4-8" for Albuquerque by elevation Wed-Thu tentatively - but may change tomorrow. The models all have at least some kind of transition to snow in the city late, it's just how quickly, and how much moisture. European keeps showing 6-12" for the whole city, which I think is way too high for most. NAM has 1-4" which I think is probably too low for some areas. GFS is 0-1", with hardly any rain even.

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now. SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure. Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9 21NOV2018 22.6 0.8 26.3 1.3 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.0

This would be a good little storm for Albuquerque - 24 hours through Thanksgiving Morning.

Some re-development of the warmth below the surface, but that little cold area may make it up anyway. That's kind of what happened in 1992-93, which was very similar to this year in June-Sept at the surface, before a small cold area showed up Nino 3.4 at the surface in winter. Then, in early 1993, more warmth surfaced and El Nino returned.

CFS is starting to go to my December forecast, with a cold center of the US. Here is the scary thing: it has a big +SOI (La Nina) in December. That happened last year. If it happens again, the South will roast later in the winter. See how the red is by 150W, 15S and the blue is by Australia around 15S? That's where Darwin & Tahiti are. In December 2018, Darwin was 1006.2 MB, and Tahiti was 1011.7 MB for a +9.14 SOI. Map below has ~1006 for Darwin and ~1012 for Tahiti.

Not looking great for people forecasting a dry winter in the Southwest. If the storm forecast over NM verifies next week, we may have record November precipitation for Albuquerque for the last 100 years. Already at 1.25" (average is 0.46"), and the record is 1.93". Already top five for wetness. Long-term, November precipitation tends to indicate January precipitation here fairly well too. Not to mention the fact that May precipitation here is highly correlated (r-squared near 0.3) to Nov-Jan precipitation totals here. Wet May here favors warm East/tornado patterns fairly often. Here is the composite for what follows after particularly wet Novembers in Albuquerque. It stays wet. Pretty El Nino-y too, which is shocking. It's not really that surprising though, this has been signaled since September - a big -SOI September is strongly correlated to a very wet January in the West, especially Northern California.

Gary Lezak winter forecast is supposed to be out next week. It's been pretty cold Oct-Nov in Missouri/Kansas, which is where is I had the cold centered in winter, I imagine he'll have something similar since he looks at Fall patterns for the LRC. Might not be super wet though.

One thing that I can't help but notice with last Fall is how well each two week period corresponded to Winter 2018-19. Will be very interesting to see if that happens again with some similar features (AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, MJO timing) to last year. H1 October was February - not as extreme, but close (a lot of the blue areas in Feb were 10-25 below average) In December, the placement was somewhat different, but the cold West Texas warm North idea was there - its just the heat moved East. If the heat had been centered a bit East over ND in H2 October, the cold would have shot up into the West. The first half of November looked like a de-amplified January, with warm coasts and a much colder middle of the US. If the timing relationships were to hold, January & February would be the similar months to last year. December would be very different - with the center of the US very cold, warmer on the coasts (that's what my forecast had, by the way). Here is a look at how this has played out in some recent El Ninos for December 2015 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - similar shift East of the heat like in 2018. 2014 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - some shift in the heat again to the East. Again, some shift east in the heat over Montana in 2009. Now, here is 2019 - I think you have to expect the cold center over Kansas to move East given the recent history? So slightly warm coasts, cold middle. That was my forecast too.

These are (tentative) top SOI monthly matches for Sept/Oct/Nov objectively, for the past 90 years or so - Year Sept Oct Nov Distance 2019 -12.7 -5.2 -9.0 0.0 1951 -11.2 -12.3 -8.5 9.1 1987 -10.6 -5.3 -1.5 9.7 1932 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 9.9 2014 -6.6 -8.2 -8.0 10.1 1957 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 10.2 1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7 11.5 Looks familiar to me...although I didn't forecast this exactly for December. I do expect the composite warmth/cold to be shifted somewhat east. SOI has had some really impressive negative bursts this month: Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Nov 2019 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 -8.52 -8.87 18 Nov 2019 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 -7.24 -8.68 17 Nov 2019 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 -5.97 -8.53 16 Nov 2019 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 -5.59 -8.31 15 Nov 2019 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 -5.56 -8.25 14 Nov 2019 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 -5.67 -8.17 13 Nov 2019 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 -5.90 -8.28 12 Nov 2019 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 -5.76 -8.39 11 Nov 2019 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 -5.18 -8.48 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.63

I like 10-30 inches for our mountains by Friday morning, and then maybe a bit more on Friday. Something like 1.00-1.25" at a 22:1 ratio for the highest mountains. Not sure if it will verify, but my gut says there will be some dry bulb magic with this system late, and it might (briefly) snow down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet, with a quick inch even in Albuquerque on Thursday Night or Friday Morning.

Pretty much identical this week to 2018 outside Nino 1.2 The warmth below Nino 3 is surfacing now. Warm pool to the West should thin then re-develop. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9