so_whats_happening

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data.

We need some strong activity in the troposphere to show up before we really start to see changes in the SPV, meaning we need to see some wave producing systems to induce a weakening response. Large deep low pressure systems or some large scale blocking patterns to set up should do the trick. Again the typical timeframe to look anyway is about mid December to mid January to see any discernable activity, before that tends to be really rare situations. You can see a drastic shift occur when models finally start picking up on key signs, it can happen in like a week, although I would rather prefer the winter to already produce before an SSW as they do not always guarantee anything for us.

Definitely a nice WWB event though. The first almost full weakening of the trades we have seen thus far. TAO update the cooling in the WPAC continues look at the bite taken out of the 30C region around 160-170E. This will be the last I keep October in the mix since we are halfway through November.

Yep a nice pass through 3-8 is not all that horrible, short term can be rough long term could be a lot of fun. Good read on the MJO to SSW precursor as well as blocking patterns before SSW. Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf Blocking Precursors to SSW.pdf

If we didn't already know here is another look at it. WWB activity is not up to par for this year compared to many years. You can see a spike in 1982/97/2015. 1972 was a nice spike but lacked intensity and we are under everyone of them thus far even 2002 and 2009, 1994 was also higher. When we go into a more concentrated timeframe and space the lines become more definitive and show how lackluster these have been thus far.

Unfortunately did not save an anomaly during the mid April to mid June timeframe so the best I can provide is total U wind.

Happen to have the iod by chance?

If we hold onto 1.8 for another week via cpc outlook or even bump to 1.9 the average should be just under 1.7 for the trimonthly after that is a big ? The lack of any continual WWB will definitely hurt chances of reaching that super status for a weekly value going forward.

I do also enjoy your graphics what site do you use to for those DJFM maps? I also do the exact same on a spread sheet ever since college that has been my go to setup.

Yes with the record waters temps over the summer and the slow fade of them across the Central and West Pacific north of 20 we still have a solid -PDO depiction even with that weakly positive look off the West coast. That weakly positive look should help with flexing of the western ridge with the El Nino state present versus constant troughing when in La Nina but we will have this battle back and forth so long as the warmth near Japan remains constant. It is nice to see some pockets of cooler waters show up but we need it a bit more widespread to have an impact. Ultimately this could have flipped had we gotten a more robust WPAC tropical season like we typically see in an El Nino year. They would help generate these WWB patterns across the tropics then the models would have been right in there wild predictions early on. The more notable El Nino events all had total tropical activity in the 30+ storm range, I believe we are near 20 or so right now and all have developed relatively close to the Philippines region.

Looking at hovmollers we do look to have a nice break in the trades coming up around 4/3.4 in the next week so this should allow the temps to pump up a bit but this only lasts for about 3-5 days before quickly returning to stronger trades as we close out the month. The VP map I don't believe is something we wanna see where it retreats back to the maritime continent again. The total winds show that the +IOD has probably already peaked and will continue to warm which is a little earlier than other typical IOD peaks but within the timeframe they normally peak so nothing too crazy.

Ill also add in the more basin wide look from CPC up to the 9th since it seems to be updating fairly regularly again. In this one you can definitely see the cool pool expand a bit in the WPAC, on the other side of this ongoing WWB.

Latest TAO from Oct 15 to current. I will shortly be taking away October as the gifs are becoming long.

See i dont understand that comment of his with WWBs not needing to sustain themselves. That is exactly what 1997 did so while one WWB event didnt last the whole season it died and another one came right in on its toes to allow this continual warm push eastward.

Here is an above look at the averaged 300m anomalies across the globe. You can see the westward shift in OHC and differences in coverage versus max/min points.

This was located under the ENSO page in the red writing under subsurface tropical Pacific analysis. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ Has a good bit of past data to about 1979-Present, it has a Pentad data and this is what I found for a cross examination between August 26 and Nov 4th of directly at the equator. I can only go back three months as of checking it out now, can dive in more to finding further back dates. If we had more solid anomalies in the eastern Pac with the current DWKW temps I would say we probably would have been near the June highs but the eastern regions continue to cool. This probably gives a better look to OHC from the perspective of CPC because it is from their site. Definitely a book mark worthy site. This is specifically at the Equator and can not change the domain to be 2 N/S or 5 N/S cross section.

Again covering a 5N to 5S will be different than covering a 2N to 2S in a region. I can easily stop posting TAO data if that is what you are hinting at and simply go off an OHC chart. There are bound to be differences between the two different sources I don't understand the discrepancy here other than the two not in sync which again makes sense since they are not covering the same areas equally. If CPC did in fact cover 2N to 2S then by all means rip apart TAO data but they are not the same in coverage area.

Keep expanding those waters and dip the thermocline more and we will match June soon enough. It looks like maybe getting close to +2C anomaly in 3.4 toward the middle to end of month is getting more likely. Again sustainability is in question but if we do get a little burst of a +AAM atmosphere mode like we saw back in March and May it could lead to the positive push that has been talked about. The hope is the Westerlies do not die before then, otherwise it will just be another quick spike. Here is just a four day difference in GFS modeled Hovmollers you can see the area across Nino regions is opening up a bit which should allow the warming to start up again. The overall WWB is weaker than what was originally forecasted just four days earlier not a thing you wanna see a weakening WWB as we get closer. The IOD region is the one that is far more noticeable in change as we head to the end of the month. Maybe a fluke run but that would be an ending of trades across that region.

Again I get where you are coming from but it is not there yet as for overall OHC value when comparing the two June is still higher even with it placed differently. Here is August 25 in comparison to Nov 3 which if using CPC OHC chart end of August peaked at just about 1.25 area which right now we are just under 1.2.

BTW just got the chance to read your forecast. Good insight and thanks for the MJO plot link. Best of luck on your forecast!

@GaWx Im not sure if you knew but you can use two dates to compare here is a comparison of the two dates June 21st is the top and Nov 3rd is the bottom. I narrowed it down to only showing 100-180W and only the upper 300m.

Sure I guess we agree to disagree. I would contact CPC to know more about the formats they use but you have to also remember intensity does help compensate for areal coverage and both together add even more to the values. I wouldn't call this the warmest the event has been but again we can agree to disagree. In June we were cracking +6 anomalies where we barely have a +5 showing up now but overall more +3 than back then. To add onto this here was CPC Subsurface from end of June to end of August you can see the areal coverage has overall been about the same but the intensity of these pockets has waxed and waned literally the same thing that was shown on TAO. By the same argument of using the look at it approach shouldn't August have been warmer OHC wise versus June? Again the best thing to do would be contacting CPC to get a better idea of the domain used for their OHC graph, Im sure they would gladly help you out with that. I could maybe ask the guy I work with but he is in a different department (OPC) so he might not have a solid answer.

This was the CPC update for Nov 4th which is the latest the OHC is likely updated until.

Why would the TAO be in sync with CPC they are two different sources of data, even though they are observing the same thing. It is just like looking at the differences in OISST to CRW SST's they are different while doing the same thing. If you wanna compare apples to apples use something on CPC, unless CPC has an archive somewhere that I am not aware of this is the closest you will get to what is being portrayed back in time. As for the differences from a monthly stand point of June to a 5 day average in November maybe it is best left to compare to another 5 day period not a month. If the month for November comes in at 1.4 similar to June then we can compare the monthly average. This is what 1.35 value on CPC page looks like in June for a 5 day average for TAO. This is what around 1.2 looks like to CPC site which updated to Nov 4th. Also a not quite as high peak in late August about 1.25 lets say

These were a 1.4C anomaly from the same website on October 1991, September 2002. This was the time period at the end of April that had a peak almost exactly where the graph shows for OHC currently.