so_whats_happening

That is such an interesting way to put the values I assume these are anomalies? Thanks for both the sites!

Yea you can see cooling taking shape in the WPAC finally which has been soo slow and the far EPAC around 1+2 and very eastern edge of 3 have cooled as well. We need to see a strong WWB again to take that next big jump but until then the trades are holding on decent across the area with a minor weakening showing up around region 4 by the end of the month, may spark a small KW that induces a small spike in temps. Otherwise things should hold steady or slightly cool for the time being. waiting for when that next strong push is coming and with the cooling of the WPAC starting up that warm pool is fading to feed this ENSO. How things react the next 3 weeks should tell us a lot how things go forward. Would have included prior times but I don't believe they have an archive with TAO data. In another post Ill include prior sst/subsurface in past strong EL Nino for what September averaged.

Lol more blanket statements 97 was 2.4 for two consecutive ONI and 82 was 2.2 for 3 consecutive ONI. What is your point? I also don't understand how you can say don't trust models far out but yet explicitly talk about how models are predicting the peak near record highs... Edit: I guess Ill have to wait till tomorrow when you have more posts or just edit another post.

Dude ONI for 2015/16 hit twice at 2.6...

personally still like the call of 1.7 ONI max (OND) in November with monthly temp around 1.9 max in November and RONI around 1.3-1.4 MEI should be close to those values as well. As mentioned in the prediction thread if any month like Oct coming in 1.7 vs 1.6 or November coming in 2 instead of 1.9 or December 1.8 vs 1.7 we bump it up to 1.8 ONI for OND. Let us see how it plays out either way it does not seem the atmosphere and ENSO will be quite on the same wave length.

I mean this makes sense you would hope that the super nino would actually be able to take hold of the atmosphere and that the MJO would just fall in line with being in the warm ENSO region low amplitude in a way to enhance the background state at times. You also want to see interference continually in the CPAC with trades so you want the WPAC to start off strong and die as the summer goes on so it can generate WWB events across the pacific. 1997 and 2015 WWB from (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-el-niño-update-phenomenal-cosmic-powers?page=0) Was having the hardest time finding 1997 850 U anoms so this article should do well. Besides the WWB event in March/April this was the first one across the dateline that had impact. June was definitely there but feel this was more of a spreading of waters westward from the already record warm EPAC that helped enhance 3.4. The consistency of the WWB events is also important 2015 already had strong starting point with warm waters already across the equator so it was primed. 1997 had a cool ENSO state beforehand not quite similar but similarish to what we had just gone through but the frequency and strength of the WWB events was on another level helping drive an extremely strong Nino event. I really do believe the already extremely warm waters globally are playing a significant role here. If we didn't have the near record levels of warmth in the WPAC would we have had a strong ENSO event given the atmospheric state we are seeing? I personally believe it would have been along the lines of a moderate event given the atmospheric state of things, but with already extremely warm waters it is much easier to attain these high levels of SSTs and anomalies compared to 1997, 1982, and pre 1980s el Nino events. Basically like stating the atmosphere doesn't have to work nearly as hard to induce an El Nino state but if the atmosphere doesn't work nearly as hard does it have the same impact even with SST anoms at these upper levels? Lets hope the +IOD holds and WPAC continues to cool otherwise will still be many fighting components here even if ONI goes above 2C.

Thanks for the info and wow at 200-250 ACE potential.

Yea agree SST's aren't everything but typically the shear profile in El Nino tends to be just a bit too much to allow extensive tropical formation like so far. It is very possible at this point we get to near 20 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and at least 3-4 majors before the season is over which again is just not normally seen with El Nino atmosphere. At that the machine just does not want to turn off either especially if there is even any semblance of MJO going back into 8/1/2 which is still looking to happen maybe end of the month early October? This would induce a warming episode for ENSO regions and ultimately another KW into October but would this be the last one considering we would be rather close to typical peak ENSO timeframe, time will tell of course. Need to watch how the western portion of the subsurface evolves with that idea. A nice surge in ENSO both oceanic and atmospherically would definitely cut off the Atlantic but exactly when does that happen? Certainly we should not be going into late October/November with storms.

Yes the more latent heat release the stronger the ridge is north of the storm. Would ultimately bring it further west, how far west before the turn is of course the question at hand. Also very cool yea Centerville still a mess but getting better, I dont frequent around there too much but they are building a second bridge not sure what the plan is with that but anything will probably help out that situation. lol Yea good ol Millersville I was in classes with the current Mu wx center director, Kyle Elliott, also nice to see Dr. Clark representing Millersville as the current president of AMS! I hope to be able to go to the conference this year in Baltimore.

Latent heat release can be rather large and intense in strong systems so they tend to not be modeled all that well and some key things can get missed. That is the idea of a mind of its own because it can change up the atmosphere around the system given the right conditions. Just like in winter sometimes the thunderstorms off the east coast can be misrepresented thus leading to a stronger ridge than modeled.

Yea just looking at super ninos you can see less impact from peak MEI standpoint to what ONI was, ONI increased every super nino at that too. Small amount of data but an interesting occurrence none the less. To me it just sounds like the same thing we have been saying all summer that there are competing factors holding the true Nino potential back.

That seems like a reasonable thought but in general the fact that you have to have ONI that high to attain an MEI/RONI large enough to support a more fluid El Nino response is saying a lot for this year. That is also not to say that every MEI/RONI in the future will follow in the same path as this has but there certainly is something off about this year. Would love to see a post mortem of this event after the winter is done.

Yea we have pulled ahead of the EPAC which is unusual in an El Nino and if Lee does its thing likely get pretty close on ACE as well which is just above normal as of now. We should not have gotten Franklin and Idalia forming where they did in an El Nino year.

17-18 was a fun one got a foot and a half snowstorm on my bday in march otherwise was a rather average year. So I would take it and run lol I mean we honestly can only go up from here with 4.5" in 21-22 and 0.9" last year (set a record for least snowiest year recorded in my area), like I said Ill take a foot of snow and run at this point the more the better!

lol yea i mean at this point im perfectly fine with an above normal temp for DJF. Just give a foot snowstorm and call it a winter. Hitting average all accounts would be like hitting the jackpot in my eyes!

So im not sure how it is set up within the model suite (as each one is different) but it most likely is reading off what is currently happening. So say we have quite the month of warming taking place, say .4C increase that month, the model will initialize and keep that same idea going strong. So just like the GFS and Euro over time it tends to go with climo after a certain amount of time meaning if it sees an El Nino like setup it will push it more toward a Nino base state meaning the atmosphere and ocean couple better the longer it goes out. If things were coupled rather well I would no doubt agree Super Nino is in store but we have seen it multiple times where models are just too ambitious with the pattern evolving like bringing consistent -VP further into central Pac, killing off the -PDO, increasing the +IOD, etc hence why you tend to get these high output readings. When it does start to incorporate the ebbs and flows it will ultimately lower the peak of some the higher output models while others will warm from their cooler state. Of course the erroneous model outputs always skew things too so it is very possible that some these rather extreme outputs are putting the dynamical model average a bit higher than say reality might be, just the same as statistical average may be skewed further down for the same reasons.

Im aware of the large gap in Statistical and Dynamic. That is why I mentioned it is best to go middle ground versus one or the other. It follows the same idea of taking multiple different models for a winter storm forecast into consideration. I cannot agree though obs are warmer than dynamical mean (dynamic has been way too aggressive over the last couple of months) but can agree on things being warmer than statistical as this is to be expected. As for the IOD that has just turned positive after months of models being too aggressive with forming the +IOD. The idea of a +IOD is push the -VP further east so the MJO can also respond further east, +IOD alone does not create WWB events but it can help in placing them into better spots when they do initiate, if they do. Im curious why you go strictly with dynamical forecasts? Is there a particular reason behind it or it fits the call better? We also have not had a 3 year Nina event followed by a strong/super Nino. The only years the come close to multiple Nina years followed by a strong/super event have been 1972 and 2009 so we are indeed in uncharted territory. Ill agree MJO (RMM plots) are not exactly the greatest they do tend to have issues and are based on model forecasts but that is why you do not take them to heart for every forecast you try to get the general idea of what the model is trying to predict. If everything we have talked about was exact we wouldn't be having these conversations or a discussion that has been 93 pages on ENSO. lol I will say this I get where you are coming from but without reasons of why this or that will occur it just doesn't help the cause, I personally am all about getting as much info as I can provide out and let the rest follow as it does. I just wish information was presented in the same manner from opposing viewpoints is all, I am just not a big fan of blanket statements or non supported posts is all. I hope to hear snowman chimes in on this too and it is not just you.

The situations that spur these large warmings is indeed MJO driven so im not sure what that comment is about. If you can show me model forecasts from months ago that are indeed falling inline with current observations that would be wonderful. The subsurface warms due to these WWB/MJO movements we saw it back in February/ March, May/ June, and end of August there is nothing in the pipeline to keep driving the subsurface warming from the last WWB/MJO progression that happened so where is this continued rapid warming coming from? I do question though what happens if we have another dive in heat content after this last wave? We definitely see the stall situation we had in second half of June and July. We do not seem to be having the typical WWB region around 90E setting up this go around which helps feed the progression of an MJO wave/ WWB event with a KW in the subsurface. So again I question where is the extended warming coming from? I personally will not delve into the whole twitter thing as that app is just a fools app, always has been. I personally like to take multiple perspectives rather than just find one thought that suits my own thoughts I mean we are already into September and by next week mid September we are nearing month, maybe month and a half until peak typically hits with again not a whole lot in the pipeline showing up. Until another MJO push/WWB event happens which again the end of the month event that was originally talked about doesn't look to happen anymore we flatline and even cool. Edited to add 30 day total U winds with forecast and the last 90 days. I will also add these U wind forecasts are not perfect they tend to over exaggerate not only trade wind anom but the weakening of the trades (or reversal moments). So it best to take a more middle of the ground approach but but nothing again showing up where is the warming to come from?

What data shows this? There is no MJO wave happening or forecasted for the next two weeks (at the very least, end of month is looking less and less impressive as we move in time) so where exactly is this warming from? We are seeing models struggle with what MJO will do next let alone get out of null. What makes this go back to 7/8/1 to allow for more Nino like processes to occur?

Possibly but definitely feel November is now a better fit overall, for now. Btw here are those two monthlies from TAO and the most recent (4th should update later but not much should have changed) I do wish this showed further west and east though would like to see how the subsurface is reacting in those areas as well.

Yea it looks as though 1+2 has peaked and we may be near peak of 3 the next few weeks (end of month should really let us know) should indicate whether or not this is true. When i get a chance ill post but i have july to august monthlies for tao subsurface and you can see quite the change and septembers will be no different. Wish i had may and june but didnt even think about saving them.

Idalia barely made a scratch unfortunately but nice to see some churning up out there. It will be fun to see how quickly that recovers coming up here. I will say I do not like the prospects of troughing being centered across the upper midwest/lakes region. Too far west to keep us from potential issues and with ridging into eastern Canada/ NW Atlantic definitely need to watch this system.

So this shows most of 3/ 3.4/ 4 eastern edge of 3 is cut off a bit on the right side as it is from 90W-150W, 3.4 is from 120W-170W, and 4 is from 150W-160E If we had a month by month play from May to now Im sure we would see a slow progression westward of the anomalies. It unfortunately cuts off 1+2 which I get cause it changes a lot but would be nice to see and also the most western portion of the Pacific but luckily CPC sort of broad brushes those regions for us. Trades kick in and tend to cap off waters and much of the warming but what I believe they also do is help with pushing the warmest portion further west with time. This progression is definitely interesting to watch.

Quite the change in the almost 10 day period.