so_whats_happening

I know this tends to not be everyone's favorite but this is just abysmal. Mind you we are only about mid July right now too. Still have a solid month of decent melt that can occur. GFS has been trying to push the idea of another ridging episode in the last week or so of July too which may just be the final push needed to melt out Beaufort, ESS, and parts of CAA. Somehow the Atlantic front is still sustaining itself even though it was the weakest portion of the ice starting into the melt season.

Lol I dont think anyone in here besides stormchaserchuck has mentioned el nino. A gradual waning though for sure seems to be in the picture as we move into winter but I have my doubts we maintain anything more than cold neutral through winter even with this incoming burst. Nino 4 will be the last to warm so it seems while areas in 1+2 and 3 will be a bit back and forth for the rest of summer into fall, 3.4 will be tricky with a balancing affect.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.9 +1.8 +2.1 +1.5 +1.4 +1.8 +2.4 +1.6 +0.9

Ain't looking good with another round of warmth showing up after the 4th of July across Alaska and the very northern reaches of Canada.

So at this point we are going with the idea of nino 4 holding on to the cold still while 1+2 and 3 should start to warm up slowly and work west over time. Nice move in the upper levels taking place. So probably not quite making third year La Nina status..

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.1 +1.9 +1.6 +0.6 +1.1 +0.8 +1.3 +2.4 +0.4 102 101 99 97 100 102 103 121 93

DCA +1.6 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.3 ORD -0.5 ATL +1.3 IAH +1.8 DEN +1.2 PHX +2.2 SEA -0.5

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.4 ORD +1.3 ATL +2.0 IAH +2.1 DEN +1.0 PHX +1.1 SEA -0.6

Would have to do a little digging around to find out. Might be a thing where temps are being accentuated due to the drought conditions prevailing as deserts while dry do still have some moisture availability so it would help keep the nighttime highs a little warmer while highs a little cooler. Now maybe it is allowing warming to go beyond what it was for daytime highs and not allowing the cool off to occur nearly as much at night? Small changes in moisture out that way probably play large differences in temps. It is also a cold current versus a warm current so flux is probably not nearly on the level of the east coast. I would assume maybe legit right along the coast may experience a similar setup to the east but further inland I feel would struggle with the net moisture flux especially considering the topography out that way. Feel more often then not winds are blowing from land to sea except along the immediate coast. May totally be wrong in that assumption having never lived out there and experiencing a few days of weather when visiting.

It is interesting of course because living in the area that has experienced warming I can say easily night time lows are the biggest change we have seen around here. Makes sense with it correlating to ocean heat flux increasing. Basically we are getting more low level moisture to stick around longer/ be replaced more frequently thus locking in higher temps especially at night versus daytime which don't get me wrong has increased but not on the level of nighttime temps in all seasons. I would love to see a study showing the differences to confirm that most of the warming has occurred via nighttime vs daytime or whether it truly is a balance of both and at what times of the year it is most likely to occur (my guess would be fall showing higher daytime peaks and warmer nights in all seasons but winter being the largest change). So for those that didn't watch: Increase in atmospheric CO2 --> higher SST (globally and locally) --> slowing of AMOC/ building up of NW Atlantic warmer waters --> changing jet pattern enhances this mode change and compounds the situation more for warming We have seen the change of more interspersed snowfalls across the Mid Atlantic, higher snowfall totals when we do get those big systems to occur, and overall snow-water equivalent levels well above average over the region as well as the NHEM as a whole. Having more ridging potential further in the NW Atlantic is a blessing sometimes and can be a big curse. In winter it is beautiful as it would allow for a further west trough allowing us to be near that baroclinic zone for these monster storms to occur. Of course the caveat is the issues that come in the summer time with tropical activity. This further NW Atlantic ridging promotes steering currents into the eastern US more so than the Gulf States, not to say these regions won't get hit, but the frequency of east coast hits may very well go up in the future do to this. I distinctly remember growing up in the 90's (in SEPA) we had some pretty decent drought years and during the summer we would be rather warm during the day and had many years with some really dead grass in the yards because of the lack of rain and heat that occurred. It seems around 2000-2005 area things flipped a bit we started to introduce more wet summers with less intense heat. Pretty difficult for us to push 100 outside of what the heat island metro areas produce. Flora has been going crazy in the region over the last 10 years it seems, we seem to have ripe conditions for a subtropical feel come late spring early summer, my backyard specifically is constantly on jungle watch with how quickly everything grows. Interesting stuff!

DCA +2.1 NYC +1.7 BOS +1.2 ORD +1.1 ATL +3.4 IAH +2.4 DEN +1.2 PHX +1.3 SEA -0.6

I have a bad feeling about the Arctic coming up this summer. Early season conditioning taking place while the Atlantic front is just a mess overall at or less then 1m thick ice over that way. With everything besides the end of January storm being about on par for a season it looked like things were maybe setting up for a better year. Hope this doesn't play out as such.

The two that have surprised me most by far is IAH and SEA.

Hmm maybe La Nina modoki to finish out the last year? I keep feeling like we may still have 3rd year La Nina, it has been kind of playing in the back of my mind for a bit. I had originally thought warm neutral was going to happen going into next winter but continuation of increased trade winds especially being much further west then the last 2 bouts has me second guessing. No coherent MJO wave that moves more than 1 octant in a month has occurred thus far and usually we are seeing some wave movement by now if we were to be going toward El Nino like. Not to mention the IOD is still in negative phase. Will be interesting to watch. Last times we have had 3rd year La Nina (1954-56 didn't quite make it into 3rd full year, 1973-76, 1998-2001) Periodicity of about 20-24 years in between each event.

You were much more humble before I really did enjoy reading your posts but this just doesn't help. Not sure what got to you but hopefully it doesn't keep affecting you.

DCA+0.8 NYC +0.7 BOS +0.5 ORD -1.1 -->-1.6 ATL +1.5 IAH +1.0 DEN +0.4 PHX +1.2 SEA -1.0 Edit at 11z changed ORD a little colder

DCA -0.5 NYC -0.6 BOS-0.9 ORD -3.1 ATL 0.6 IAH 1.2 DEN -1.4 PHX 1.4 SEA -1.8

Arctic taking hits now extent and area have slumped for now but with prospects of ridging pushing into the Bering sea and ESS/ Chuchki as well as along the Atlantic front we will likely continue the stall or have ever slight gains over the next couple weeks its still cold up there just not as cold. The cold gets displaced over land most notably the North American side could see quite the cool down take shape outside of just Alaska and Western Canada. We have dropped back down again to the 2010's average so still keep running along that path since end of melt season. Globally though wow at the Antarctic right now. Some of its lowest values since 2016 taking hold which is dropping extent and area globally to almost the edge of the 2SD region. Still not as bad as 2016 as the Arctic has not taken a major hit this season, yet. Im sure ill get the lil hotdog thing everyone seems to cherish so much on this site.

Im not Chris but yes with the exception of the stretch from about 2015 to 2017 (wonder what could have enhanced that, hmmm lol). If we go by the idea of about 30 years on average for signals to flip we should be close by about mid 2020's and by 2030 area we should be on a more positive regime. Not to say it follows it exactly though.

DCA +1.5 NYC +1.1 BOS 0 ORD 1.0 ATL 1.2 IAH +1.7 DEN+2 PHX +1.5 SEA-0.4 Those darn nighttime lows got me last month and man the west was warm. DCA 16" NYC 34" BOS 62" ORD 41" DTW 45" BUF 74" DEN 36" SEA 11" BTV 91"

Its great to see of course. Although im not sure remarkable is appropriate yet. If we can hold an average season without any big shake ups and push into this summer holding strong I will start using remarkable (I know sounds pushy). For now it is good to see that the Arctic is holding it's own. I still worry as we go into mid December signs of ridging poking into the Bering and the Atlantic front, good thing for mid latitudes bad up there.

Heyy about right on time to start showing the positives. Seems like data is always cherry picked anymore since you were focusing on how high Antarctica was over summer now at some of its lowest levels in satellite era and the fact that the Arctic was essentially on the road to recovery. Ice just getting obliterated down there as they head into summer. But hey the Arctic seems to be doing ok right! Never mind CAA is doing horrendous for this time of year which is usually the last place to really get hit in intense summers and its close by regions of Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, Greenland Sea and Beaufort Sea just struggling hard right now. So annoying to see when folks only post the good and not the bad but this stuff happens when the mid latitudes roast and get into some wild patterns of persistence. Anyway hope it stays this way cause one decent SSW or storms coming into Bering Sea or Atlantic front could ruin the day real quick. We may see a rather extensive halt in sea ice expansion come mid December if things play out as many seem to think it will. Lets watch and see.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots This is where you get that second picture

DCA +1.3 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.6 ORD +0.6 ATL -0.8 IAH +1.4 DEN +1.5 PHX +0.9 SEA -1 Probably going to change it a little come sunday

DCA +2.5 NYC +1.7 BOS +1.2 ORD +3.2 ATL +1 IAH +1 DEN +1.4 PHX +0.4 SEA -0.8