so_whats_happening

I had posted this in another forum but figured I would throw it here too. This is the 500mb composite using all El Nino strictly on the basis of 3.4 in the strong or super category ONI as we went into Winter. I did not include 1987-88 as that winter had peaked extremely early (august area) and went toward moderate during winter. I did however include 1991-92 and 2009-10 even though they had later peaks than usual. December looks about as typical as it gets January not bad but definitely a competition between Aleutian Low and Greenland High. Things balance out nice over February.

So we have a westward propagating WWB event due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave that will probably form a Typhoon in the far western pacific. This should induce a KW going forward, though im not entirely sure what comes of a west propagating event like this and how strong of wave could come of this so lets give it some time to see what may come of this. VP is taking on a rather weird look the forecast is trying to show a weakening in the WPAC -VP, of course we will have to wait and see if consistency comes of this. The spreading of more consistent -VP over the Central and East Pac has been waning a bit with each update. So the weak MJO going to more of a 1 position means the very eastern portion of the PAC and South America experience this -VP into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this changes up as we go to the end of October.

IAH was probably the biggest surprise by far. Also the lack of heat getting up to BOS/ NYC was another surprise.

I made these while at work just to get an idea of what things looked like graphically. I have all other years like weak, moderate, and strong that I can show as well both Nina and Nino. Basically plotted OHC in the 3 sections (one basin wide, Nino region wide, and one we tend to see more of Nino region 3.4 with edges into 3 and 4 (100W-180)), temp from ERSST monthly for 3.4 and 1+2. I didn't include SOI as that would have really taken away from the graph visually but the monthly numbers can be seen. Forgot to update 1982/83 with 1+2 but the numbers are there. The 13 and 14 on the graph represent the next year. What I have noticed is that once we cross the OHC we tend to only have about .4-.7 more SST anomaly increase from that crossing point. The only times this has not been the case was from rapid warm-ups after we experienced the crossing. If you want other years Ill post them.

Yea pretty much if you scroll over at the top and do the different percentages that is a better way of looking at it. Basically if it is in purple it should end up warm or cold depending on the trimonthly and phase. Of course it should probably read a little less because of other random factors that get involved.

Latest update on Subsurface

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml This is the main site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Go down a little and you will find this:

Dc. +1.6 Nyc +1.4 Bos +1.7 Ord +2.3 Iah +1.2 Atl +1.3 Den +1 Phx +.8 Sea +1.1 Late entry at 9:40am

New update to the subsurface. Ill keep saving into October but wont have much time to post have some busy days coming up here will do so when I get a free chance again.

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote does not make this post any better man. I thought the whole idea of a strong/super el nino was to not rely on the large amplification mjo waves to help produce results. Nino should have already been able to do so? Btw i dont think anyone has denied the idea that another round of warming would come, it was always a matter of when and how intense. I have been mentioning for a while the time pattern would suggest mid to late october from back in early september when were having a similar talk. Going to be very interesting to see what happens as trades look to continue to hold a cap on things through the first week of October, maybe longer?

Wow if that was not the best example of someone copying anothers thoughts then i dont know what would be better... kinda wild!

This has actually been hit quite a few times by rather strong cooling episodes and has been rather resistant for most of the summer, so we shall see. Feel we need a significant typhoon to move through that region to really stir things up. Slow moving would be the best.

Here is 2023 Technically if we are basing it off of ONI we are in moderate to strong territory for the summer I made a composite of mod-strong years at this time of year.

I will say he isn't just saying it for nothing, probably not the best way to approach it but here nor there. Nino 3.4 correlation to SLP for June through August and each particular warm ENSO event with weak, moderate, strong, and super events during the summer time period. Edit: It goes moderate, strong, super, weak in descending order

Woof someone is angry for some reason. Anyway CPC did actually update on the subsurface and this gives us a much broader look.

As always thanks for this Roger. Sorry I have been removed a bit from doing these it has been quite a busy few months dealing with work (the 1st comes and goes real quick!). I should hopefully be able to finish out the rest of the year.

Yea CFS does seem off it does seem like it is trying to capture the real time situation but going a bit too much. If I remember correctly, I would have to look back in the pages to find it, but I do remember some models were having a leveling off around this point they had another bump up as we got to November. Now will this happen honestly no clue but we also don't have many clues yet for how long this current situation will last. We definitely seem to be sloshing the waters in the East/ Eastern Central Pacific quite a bit so it is not unreasonable to think there may a slight uptick in OHC because of this again whether that adds to 3.4 and other regions is something that will need to be watched. As you posted the U anom map earlier I don't see a WWB event propagating east or west showing up yet as we have seen in the past couple of months. We do not see the EPAC firing off any more hurricanes so that season is probably done, this helped aid in some west propagating minor WWB events some coincided with the WPAC event and constructively worked together. So it remains that status quo is probably the best idea for now but lack of any events will ultimately eat up heat content until such an event can help re-enforce a warming timeframe. Still have been holding onto the idea for awhile now that end of October may feature such an event to re-establish itself but that remains to be seen. The September event that was talked about has failed and models just didn't quite get it right. Either way we definitely have slowed momentum for the time being let us see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks as that will definitely tell us a lot going forward.

I get that and maybe it is just me but I tend to see that region under 200m (between 200-300m) as rather negligible as there tends to not be too much change that occurs at those levels on the positive or negative side of things. We should get a better sense by the end of the month what is happening.

Latest SST anomaly 30 day animation Near Japan has taken a bit of a hit in the recent week or two, west coast of the US also cooling a bit. Western IOD holding its own for now but some areas around the maritime continent are warming a bit. WPAC along the equator still not seeing decent surface or subsurface cooling while the EPAC has in fact cooled since the August time frame. Would like to see a more La Nina like tongue in the Atlantic Equatorial region and cooling of the WPAC to go on the idea of a more canonical El Nino stance SST wise. Nothing MJO wise through at least the first week of October is showing up and when it does it is rather weak in 4-5-6 lets see if this changes coming up as we get to mid month of October. MJO forecast from various models: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Maybe but notice the area west of the warmest anomalies has shrunk over time not to say those warm anomalies can not accomplish a similar thing to back in late August early September. If we are to see OHC rise it would need to be an expansion of the warm anomalies in the eastern portion and a deepening of the thermocline much more than it is especially folks who expect this to go to around 2C for OHC.

Latest update on subsurface while the region around 120W has seen some warming of anomalies we have overall decreased the coverage of warmth across the area from 100-180 over the last few weeks. In order to push back up to those levels in August we need another decent WWB event and associated KW. Otherwise we will just continue to use up the subsurface heat to maintain status quo. Unfortunately CPC has not updated yet and expect sometime next week for this to happen.

This does seem to be the case for this Nino, in past Nino events we don't often see the stronger subsidence in this region it tends to be weaker and further displaced into SA and tropical Atlantic while the stronger subsidence tends to be more located in the maritime region. I would have to look at past years with similar stronger subsidence regardless of ENSO state to see if we had similar results to that. Maybe a project for the rainy day tomorrow. How would this compare to a different climo baseline? Just curious if these changes occur differently in say the 1981-2010 or 1971-2000 base lines. It would make sense for earlier times to look cooler based on a much higher climo baseline than previous. Basically the signatures may still be there but not as extreme?

Happen to have one for the EPAC and WPAC? Also there at least looks to be another hurricane on the horizon for the last week of the month. After that is anybody's guess.

While looking for pictures to save in my folder I stumbled upon this doesn't seem it has strayed too far off the idea. I don't have monthly numbers but judging where we are now we have pushed into the middle of the ranges compared to the lower end back in June/July area. Lets see what it can muster up here in the next 1-2 months. Totally based this thought on the idea of an October peak looks likely still a November peak but will have to wait and see. Looks like my monthly thought in the other thread of 1.6 for October may be a bit off depending on how things shake out.

I mean yea it is impressive but it also has been done before, unfortunately this year does not have the amount of crazy KW/ WWB events to allow the subsurface to take it to that upper echelon like 1997 and 2015. Unless we see a rather shocking change of events come about we probably won't hit much of those upper levels that some models are showing. Still got a solid month though.