so_whats_happening

Going to bump Boston to 100 instead of 97 and ORD to 97 instead of 95 if I read the little note correctly.

Sound advice and looking back after being out of school for nearly 9 years I can say I don't regret it one bit but it is tough out there trying to push into certain sectors. I would say don't be afraid to look outside the box so to speak as you may find something you never would have thought to be fruitful but has treated you well through the years. The bold is by far the most important thing I would ever recommend to anyone pursuing the degree. About to start in a program for my masters and hope to be able to get the next leg up needed to push further into Meteorology. Network, Network, Network!

I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency. Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Seems like they still are having some data not come in properly. I hope as well this gets straightened out by end of summer.

Yea you typically dont have a cooling in the EPAC and the Atlantic. I wonder if this has to do with the ever resilient warmth around the maritime throwing things off a bit. From looking at some of the past Nina/Nino episodes typically you have a warming EPAC with a cooling WPAC and Atlantic and vice versa when entering Nina state. Since the WPAC just has not cooled maybe we are starting to see a different setup take place? As always a bit too early to tell what will come about.

Cant post the loop of the Euro because of the file size being just too big, results are fairly similar.

That is some impressive forecasted movement to say the least.

Anyway here is a little update on the subsurface for the developing La Nina. Just about a months worth of visuals spanning about 4 days in between images. Ill continue this as we go into fall and sporadically update. Also a look a hovmollers with finally a weak moving MJO wave.

Is it possible the reduction of sulfur based fuels are finally coming home to roost? China stopped using heavily sulfur based fuels back in 2017 so it is very possible it will start to play catch up to the extreme levels we have seen in the Atlantic and continually grow with time. Time will tell of course. This will largely create even more disconnect between the tropics and subtropics over time and could very well start to show a lower overall named storm/ hurricane/typhoon count as we go through time as the atmosphere tries to rebalance itself out in this new regime. Just some food for thought while things are still kind of early for the season.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +.6 +.7 +.9 +.5 +1 +1.2 +1.5 +1.5 +1 100 98 97 95 99 102 99 117 95

Just for comparison sake 97-98 compared to 23-24. Winter 500mb seemed pretty spot on as far as placement with key features of course intensities varied spring however does have some similarities thus far but not all the same. Should be interesting to see how we continue into summer.

Here was the 500mb pattern from 2/28-5/28 Here is the preceding 3 month period when we were in full swing Nino territory (11/28-2/28) Changes but notably the ridging has indeed pushed further east into the north Pacific so we may start to see a cooling in time of the WPAC? Especially if we do have a decent typhoon season but yet to be seen as of now. Which I would guess we eek out a typical WPAC season given we are transitioning to La Nina status.

Here is the 90 day SST bonkers amount of warm anomalies showing up just south of the Aleutians. This will change over time since there is a 12mb file limit on posts.

Yea the idea should be that an extremely active typhoon season should start to cool these waters but the waters only cooled for about a 2-3 month period (if that) before rebounding quite substantially. I also do not know what it will take for this to break and even more surprising was the fact we were near super levels for an El Nino typically we should have had an above average if not extremely active season, we had what was more of a typical average season if not even a more below average season for the WPAC. One thing of note was that we did not have a lot of strong recurving typhoons last year most were weak when they did recurve so maybe that played a role? In fact we just had our first system form a couple days ago which is close to the later start timeframes we have seen for the WPAC typhoon season. Surprisingly most after some of the extremely active season of strong/super El Ninos. 1st- 1983 June 8th 2nd- 1984 June 7th 3rd- 1998 May 28th 4th- 2016 May 25th 5th- 2024 May 22nd

Since ACE has been brought up quite a bit figured I would add this as well: (Named/ Hurricanes/ Major) https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic 1949: 16/7/2 96 ACE 1954: 16/7/3 104 ACE 1964: 13/7/5 153 ACE 1970: 10/5/2 40 ACE 1973: 8/4/1 48 ACE 1983: 4/3/1 17 ACE 1988: 12/5/3 103 ACE 1992: 7/4/1 76 ACE 1995: 19/11/5 227 ACE 1998: 14/10/3 182 ACE 2005: 28/15/7 245 ACE 2007: 15/6/2 74 ACE 2010: 19/12/5 165 ACE 2016: 15/7/4 141 ACE 2020: 30/13/6 179 ACE You can click on each year too to see the tracking map to see what years had solid landfalls. It is interesting to note 1970-71 had a solid cold spill into the US even with low ACE but high solar. 2010-11 had nice cold across the country but large blocking low solar and high ACE. There are definitely odd ball years that arise.

Agree on 1949-50, just had a completely different subsurface going on than any of these other years. 20-21 wasn't too bad of a year think the low solar really helped that year out a lot. If we are strictly going off the idea of a stronger Nino to a mod/strong Nina we take out 1970-71 and 2007-08 as while they did go to mod/strong Nina status they came off relatively weak Nino states just like 20/21 and 1949-50 did. Here is what the overall 500mb pattern looked like placement overall was still relatively similar of course the most notable difference is the Atlantic pattern as we did have a couple low solar years tossed in there (07-08,20-21). I also got a SST reconstruction for each set of years for may conditions leading into those winters. Not making conclusions which will turn out better as they both seem pretty similar just wanted to present the data with them. The one with the warmer equatorial pacific matches with the years coming off strong Ninos to strong Ninas. The cooler pacific was the group of years I had used in the previous post. Here is the current daily SST anomaly.

Again sorry for all the posts but one final one. If we combined all the years mentioned above we get not a bad look to what may be to come. Maybe warm it by about a degree?

Whoops just realized I left out 2007-08 so six years (1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021)

Of the years posted this is what the Dec- Mar 500mb pattern resulted in.

Going off the idea that 3 or more fit the idea of what maybe coming the best years shown are 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021. These five had more things combined that would lead me to believe if we do indeed go into moderate to strong Nina status these may be the years to use. Here are the subsurface looks for each year. Some are just flat out not in-line with where we are but Ill leave that for folks to decide. I do have the other years if folks are interested in specific years.

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected. So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have. Here are the sites used to help create this table. Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Ill take a look into it tonight/tomorrow what subsurface looked like coming off these years 72-73,87-88,94-95, 97-98. 09-10, heck ill even throw in 91-92 and make a gif just to see where we are potentially aligning with going forward. If any others years are wanted just let me know.

This makes sense looking back at data in the early 90s (91/92) we peaked hard on yearly temps around the PA/Philly region and dropped dramatically afterward. We also were coming off an El Nino (strong) to neutral stance and we were also in a solar max situation. huh

We still have some pretty intense westerly winds in the Indian ocean.

Finally starting to take a nice Nina look especially with decent upwelling along the Peruvian coastline. Limited to only 30 day animation due to max file size. Here has been the global 500mb look for the last 3 months. Really decent -NAO pattern to end the season and you can see why waters south of the Aleutians have warmed quite a bit. One interesting note is the cooling along the equator in the Atlantic right now. We largely did not see this during the strong/super Nino and typically you get something that counter balances between the two basins.