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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, that's bad Severe thunderstorm watch for the Midwest.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    I'd watch for the PNA to change ~Jan 15.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Sorry guys, this the last 5 Winters before the strongest -PNA on record this year.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    The last 4 Christmas' + 2 days. 5 -NAO Christmas' in a row. I said a week ago this mean we could then wane away.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    It's not holding up in the subsurface, when PNA leads, it means something for 1 year ahead.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Here's something really cool.. The last 4 Christmas' + 2 days, 20 analogs Dec23-27, 2017-2020. In the midst of a very +NAO Winter time. It happens again this year(5 in a row.)!
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Didn't realize the slight movement north or south in the Pacific High pressure, -PNA, makes a big difference, we are borderlining +pressure in Alaska, -EPO, and it's cold, 30s, today and yesterday, despite +600dm -PNA.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Strongest -PNA probably on record now.. I don't know about the early 1900's, but I think that was mostly +PNA/+PDO. late 1800s maybe. For this time of the year, Dec 1955 and 2010 hold 2nd and 3rd place, both Strong Nina's. As I guessed, central and eastern subsurface have cooled +0days with -PNA pattern.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Pink on the GFS ensembles now through 168hr 7 days. I've been watching these long term models every day since probably 2001, and I've never seen that deep and long of a 500mb anomaly. And, it's at 55N degrees! Some perspective: Dec 1 - Jan 3 will come in at +380dm. In 75 years Since 1948: 2. is +280 in 2010 3. is +230 in 1955.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, cold Stratosphere has a -40dm +0d correlation. If it happens without the stratosphere a lot, that's a decadal -NAO cycle. I wouldn't be surprised though if in verification it trends a little less -NAO.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, a +100dm/-70dm signal of 20 analogs(/75) over a 3-month period is really strong. (only 3/90 days of the sampleset is in the roll forward)
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    I posted this in the NYC subforum yesterday.. when Dec1- Jan3 -PNA dominates, is most dominant index, what the rest of the Winter brings, 20 analogs over 3-months since 1948.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Weak, we will have above average temps if this verifies (They might be over doing the -PNA because of how blosterous it has been.)
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    We haven't had dry snow in a long time that lasts.. the last few years all snow totals are gone in 3 days. I didn't like 09-10 much for this reason too. -PNA -NAO is better in this regard
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    I would bet on the Packers vs the Ravens, best case scenario Ravens lose 27-17, and even that should be loss vs spread because they are home.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    I think we will switch PNA phases Jan 5, 10, or 15. Maybe later because the 384hr model has +300dm nearly still. NAO has been like a blotch since August, meaning the normal climate pattern was less -NAO, and it's like the -NAO has been pasted there. That may continue? We have been so opposite of last year, I love hugging that right now, but we had a monster -NAO last January, top 4 west-based -NAO on record actually, since 1948. I wonder if the NAO/AO trends positive when the -PNA lessens?
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    A repeat of October.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    This looks good, I like those shortwaves digging in the West coming under the 498dm Polar vortex. 107mb gradient. Wonder how much warm air convection we can trend towards.?
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    384hr GFS
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Another perspective
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    November was cold and October was -NAO
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, it looks like Jan-Feb 2023 will be -PNA.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Most -PNA's for Dec 1- Jan 3 .. this year will be #1 of all time by a good 20%. It's a tough pattern to break, but I think we will break this mid-Jan and maybe Feb with more +PNA, because of subsurface ENSO trends, and our ongoing opposite tendency to last year. This +100/-70 as a 20-analog composite of 3-months is a strong very strong baseline signal. v Jan 1-Mar 31, my dataset ends Jan 3.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    I love how west-based the -NAO is.. only 4 January analogs
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