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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Seems like there is a lot of potential for a +500dm block in the 15day range.. either -PNA, -WPO, or -NAO, I wonder if it's associated with a 10mb warming, if so that's a ~Jan 20-25 -AO/-NAO signal.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Thanks for the research/point, the Gulf coast jet stream doesn't really pick up until mid-January. Look at this though
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah it's always going to be negative these days, we have a big Pacific drought, High pressure hitting somewhere over there. I think we can do well snowwise with a -NAO, seems we are due for more precip too.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    New GFS ensembles bring -NAO in much better.. +360dm's hitting on almost half of the members at 192hr.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    97-98 had a -NAO period, too.. our 2 least snowy Winter's. This LR -NAO if it happens like on models will make 22 straight -NAO's with a -PNA or +EPO, going back to 2018.. the West to east jet stream has tremendous power.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    3 strong cold waves around -NAO on 15day models for 5 straight runs now. I like it, 4 waves around -NAO, we'll get a snowstorm if it happens like this. Last 3 models runs have been cold in the NE.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    It may be temporary.. we have been -NAO 70%of the time August-now so..
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Wondering what will happen around jan 15th, as we are doing opposite of last year.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Had like the 3rd thunderstorm of the year here tonight (well it was windy)
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Big Pacific -PNA pattern happened last year Jan 15th on, maybe we will veer more +PNA Jan 15th on?
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    We've been running perfectly opposite at 500mb anomalies Aug-Dec25th vs last year, Maybe the big -PNA will flip January 15th on?
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Remember, the last 4 Christmas' in the midst of big +NAO Winter's This coming -NAO may have less staying power?
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    I think we're trending for a snowier Winter next year, right now. I want to see if the +ENSO develops after ~+0.3 in ~April. The trend for the last few years has been a reversal of the warmth after some warm pockets surface. I think all the analog stuff showing an El Nino has little weight..
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    ^40/70 it's a pretty awesome signal, December -PNA = El Nino soon after (usually you are always on one side of consistency for the sake of randomness). Also Dec 1957 and 1965 had big -PNA December's and were followed by -NAO fwiw I'm kind of worried about the displaced -NAO though (could be some +NAO-default tendency this year) (I like because they were El Nino years and it kind of matches the encroaching subsurface warm pool.)
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, the world is changing man. Chase your snow. I enjoy it, the deep gray clouds, falling snow from the sky. I wanted to live in Canada and just move around.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    `100" yeah!
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    I watch those satellite maps like a lot, and they drive me crazy! One time I found 11-1-11 in LA etc, 500mb anomalies that could even be "time travel lol. There were like 13 of them. Anomalies on round number days.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, our best pattern for big snowstorms is GOA Low, which is actually not far from -PNA(-PDO pattern). Problem can be the STJ.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Real nice -NAO here at 384hr on Christmas. 3 strong cold waves around. -PNA with it too though. I think we had a progressing -NAO in Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov so we can do this.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    It also might be hard to flip that NAO(from now)
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Not really sure who gets this.. it took 30 seconds to load
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    December is interesting in the satelite data, first non -PNA year was 1959. , 11 year later. 1995 Dec 1995 was the biggest +PNA. Not a lot of matches with consistency or what we know as ENSO. My Winter-thread post is lingering, I wonder if Im connected the same as everyone? Probably not.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    I actually like these analogs going forward
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Warm pool strengthening in the west..
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    A few GFS ensembles are showing a tropical storm in the GOM long range..
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