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MattPetrulli

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Everything posted by MattPetrulli

  1. MattPetrulli
    Significant east shift now
  2. MattPetrulli
    Yep east tick continues.
  3. MattPetrulli
    Honestly, I know the circulation is aligned and all and gradual intensification is occurring. But man given the favorable conditions Ian looks like trash currently lol. I fully expect that to change today but man it looks like crap right now.
  4. MattPetrulli
  5. MattPetrulli
    Curious what recon finds in the next pass. They found a circulation way to the SE of it with no convection so assuming its an old circulation or MLC that is severely decoupled. Looks ugly on satellite still, although evidence of convection firing towards end of the loop near the center near or slightly above 15 degrees, as placed by NHC.
  6. MattPetrulli
    GEFS east shift, still mainly west however
  7. MattPetrulli
    Can change quick, but looks very disorganized at the moment. Weird given the parameters. Probably will change during the night, however.
  8. MattPetrulli
    Really curious about how surge impacts are communicated by NHC. Not too familiar with surge forecasting, but the Big Bend area and west coast of Florida are very surge prone. This, along with discrepancies about the size of the storm on models create for an interesting situation. Me thinks this will be a big surge event, but I am somewhat ignorant to surge forecasting.
  9. MattPetrulli
    New cone goes slightly westward, peak intensity raised to 140 mph, however from Wednesday Night to Thursday Night, the intensity goes from 130 mph to 90 mph. Anticipating very rapid weakening
  10. MattPetrulli
    Nah that's 18z look at bottom right
  11. MattPetrulli
    I mean it had a closed circulation with consistent convection and gale force winds. Pretty sure that is what is called a tropical storm.
  12. MattPetrulli
    00z with a tick east
  13. MattPetrulli
    18z Euro virtually the same as 12z Euro
  14. MattPetrulli
    Also curious to see if new center relocation to the north will affect track discrepancies at all.
  15. MattPetrulli
    It's reasonable if a landfall in the big bend were to occur, Tampa still gets coastal flooding. Very surge prone area.
  16. MattPetrulli
    As a high Cat 2/low Cat 3 too
  17. MattPetrulli
    Tampa landfall Thursday morning on 12z Euro
  18. MattPetrulli
    Something of note also, GFS trending a little lesser with the dry air the more west it goes
  19. MattPetrulli
    12z GFS may be a Hurricane Dennis like scenario of a weakening, but major hurricane affecting that area. Still would have significant impacts.
  20. MattPetrulli
  21. MattPetrulli
    Something of note, a big bend landfall would probably be best case scenario here. Small storm may limit surge into major west coast cities, and big bend is pretty unpopulated. Also, may be a weakening hurricane rather than a strengthening one. Atm I would favor a landfall just north of Tampa however
  22. MattPetrulli
    Shift west on 00z GEFS, but quite a wide spread
  23. MattPetrulli
    00z GFS further east and weaker
  24. MattPetrulli
    Frictional convergence increasing on landfalling eyewall leading to intense DBZs. Definitely still got a Cat 2-3 level storm.
  25. MattPetrulli
    Curious if new flare up is indicative of a LLC reformation to the SW
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