That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.