HillsdaleMIWeather

The mets previously in the thread said that the Euro isn't handling the higher than normal winds in the current pressure very well, so best to ignore the winds the Euro is pumping out and focus on the track it gives.

Just a smidge West of 18z at 48

NHC says "Euro all the way" Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively

A Mandatory Evacuation has just been issued for the Florida Keys

NHC shows it strengthening even more in the next 12 hours to 180. God help the people in the islands.

I'm thinking we've reached Cat 5

Recon reports 929.2

This run would be even worse than the 0Z, East Florida, and Coastal GA/SC would all get seriously slammed

06Z GFS at 60 looks to be a touch north

Euro through 96 is the exact same, but maybe a touch faster

Recon found a pressure of 939.5 in the eyewall

IWX's afternoon AFD said the smoke might prevent a more widespread event, seems they were right

The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago

Line from Coldwater to Jackson is exploding with activity

Under a warning from that cell, watch issued.

SPC just introduced an area of 45 unhatched winds

Looks to be on a course for the Carolinas at 192

168, a little east of Florida but clipping the coast

Stronger and south compared to 12Z

Day One Enhanced Risk

A thing to remember is all the models have their respective biases too

Day two slight risk I'm slightly optimistic

Gonna make landfall near where the GFS does at 216

192, going out to sea?