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Everything posted by HillsdaleMIWeather

  1. The mets previously in the thread said that the Euro isn't handling the higher than normal winds in the current pressure very well, so best to ignore the winds the Euro is pumping out and focus on the track it gives.
  2. NHC says "Euro all the way" Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively
  3. A Mandatory Evacuation has just been issued for the Florida Keys
  4. NHC shows it strengthening even more in the next 12 hours to 180. God help the people in the islands.
  5. This run would be even worse than the 0Z, East Florida, and Coastal GA/SC would all get seriously slammed
  6. Euro through 96 is the exact same, but maybe a touch faster
  7. Recon found a pressure of 939.5 in the eyewall
  8. IWX's afternoon AFD said the smoke might prevent a more widespread event, seems they were right
  9. The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago
  10. Line from Coldwater to Jackson is exploding with activity
  11. Looks to be on a course for the Carolinas at 192
  12. 168, a little east of Florida but clipping the coast
  13. A thing to remember is all the models have their respective biases too
  14. Gonna make landfall near where the GFS does at 216
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