lakeeffectkid383

I know it's pretty hard to see and pretty coarse but the BTV WRF has a bullseye over the southtowns of over 1.5" liquid equivalent and that's not even the whole thing as the band is still over the southtowns at the end of the run. This is likely way overdone but the potential for an accumulating (possibly significant) snow event for the southtowns is looking like more of a possibility.

06z NAM looks very similar edit: did not realize the first image you posted was 06z nam, my apologies!

Looks pretty impressive. Even BUF would score 3-6” with 1’+ over the hills south of BUF and the TUG. Time to put out the snow tires on.

Bring it on! Really hoping it’s on to something at this time range, obviously the details will be worked out more as we move inside a week and especially within 5 days but it’s nice just to see a consistent signal for a potential event. It seems like our big storms are usually signaled in the models a good 10 days in advance so really hoping other guidance is on board with it too.

Landed up getting a new snowblower yesterday, so now I'm sure it'll be a long time until we see a good accumulating snow lol!

32 degrees with a nice thick frost here, I second that about that grass, hopefully I can cut it one last time today and be done for the year and get the snowblower tuned up!

Good let’s get a Nov 2014 repeat too please lol!

Yep 2.5 miles due south of me. Pretty crazy stuff for a October. Did have some gusty winds, lots of thunder and lightning, and quite a bit of graupel and hail according to my nest cam. I was actually in Hamburg all day though buying a new vehicle so unfortunately I wasn't able to catch any action first hand.

Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection.

Only a couple scattered flakes/pellets here as this area is about the worst area in WNY for a NW flow. Still was nice to see any kind of frozen precip so not trying to complain. Mother in law up in Amherst had a full dusting of snow/graupel even on the roads last night.

I’m about 7 miles NE of BuffaloWeather. It’s fascinating to see the difference in such a short difference. He definitley averages a good 20”+ over me and there’s some events he can see 1’+ while I’m looking out the window at green grass. Happened quite a few times just last year. There can also be times (not as often) that I can see 1’ of snow while 7 miles to my NW downtown Buffalo is looking at green grass. On an even rarer occasion my location can be just about ground 0 on early season SW flow events (see Dec 2010, Nov 2014). Looking forward to having another forum to post in and read about what’s going on across the upper Great Lakes not just the eastern lakes.

I’ll also be chiming in here as well from just south of Buffalo,NY (About 6 miles S of Buffalo and 6-7 miles NE of BuffaloWeathers location). Average about 115” a season.

Wow some nice lake effect rain bands have set up off both Erie and Ontario in the last hour or two. Both lakes have some 40+ dbz returns as well as some lightning detected which is almost surely from graupel.

First flakes of the season in the PNC in the hills south of Buffalo.

Looks meh. Maybe highest hilltops over the Southern Tier (over 2k') and some of the dacks catch a few mangeled flakes but for the other 99.5 % of us we'll see just plain old rain with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Will certainly feel like fall though, and definitely a step in the right direction. It sure beats mid 80s while trying to pick out a pumpkin...

Anyone want to take a very early guess at seasonal totals for upstate major locations? here’s my guesses KBUF: 89.1” KROC: 106.7” KSYR: 128.9” KART: 114.2” KALB: 45.0” KBGM: 68.3” KITH: 58.9” KJHW: 103.4” KIAG: 72.5” KFZY: 186.6”

Toronto: Freeze October 14th / Snow 14th Buffalo: Freeze October 15th / Snow 13th Rochester: Freeze October 27th / Snow October 13th Syracuse: Freeze October 15th / Snow 14th Watertown: Freeze October 6th /Snow October 6th Albany: Freeze October 27th / Snow October 14th Binghamton: Freeze October 7th / Snow October 7th If we’re talking Freeze not frost then I think many will see snowflakes in the air before we go sub 32 degrees. Could see some rain mixed with cat paws with a temp of like 35-37 degrees without the actual temp ever dropping below 32 until we get a nice radiational cooling night.

One of my favorite lake snow chases was in mid October of 2012 (I believe) in the Tug Hill where I witnessed 6"+ of snow on the ground and pretty heavy rates of over 1-2"/hr during the daytime. Definitely liking what the long range models are showing and am thinking that would could see an early season lake effect snow event by mid October somewhere in our forum, tons of cold air over Canada for this early in the season.

At my hunters safety course in Awrkright today. Was only 36 degrees when I got here at 8am this morning. Downright cold.

Perfect outdoor weather. Give me 60-70 with low dews and sunshine anytime. Literally perfect. Don’t break a sweat, not chilly or shivering and if there’s a breeze you throw a hoodie on. How could you not like that?

Funny you say that, I’ve chased multiple times there. Awesome spot to chase for the money and you can easily access the Tug and if (or when) it gets too hairy out, there’s several spots in walking distance you can walk to for food, necessities, ect... here to hoping we have many early season events to chase (or hopefully not even have to chase lol) !

Flo looks the best it has in 48 hours. Was watching a livcam from Surf City about 1/2 hour ago and WOW! Anyone know any wind reports from that NE inner eyewall? Seems like it was well over 100mph judging by the camera but hard to tell.

Pretty far north of NHC track all day long.

Atlantic Beach, 105knots. Think this things gonna have a last minute north trend, just a feeling, probably totally wrong.

Can you post please?