lakeeffectkid383

In a horrible pattern I’d be thrilled to pickup 8-10”. Still looking for a signal of a significant pattern change in the long range but it’s just not there and long range is getting into January already....

As you were saying normal or slightly below normal temps gets us snow this time of year and I’d rather have a pattern like that than brutal arctic cold but the storm track is suppressed to the south over the M/A or SE. Honestly I hate the cold as I’m getting older so give me 30 and snow and I’ll be a happy camper.

"Snowing" decently under this band ATM. Only thing is it's about 98% graupel and 2% real flakes...27 degrees here though so it is sticking.

Would actually be about 3” here 10:1. Would be quite a nice little surprise if it comes true but doubtful.

What a terrible boring weather pattern we’re in for the next several weeks at least. Can it be January 1st already?

Picked up about 3” or so with this band moving through this evening and still snowing. Picked up about 2.5” this morning so closing in on 6” here as well. Not terrible. Just stinks a good deal of what fell this morning melted during the day while we didn’t have any snow falling for about 8 hours with temps right near freezing. Driving home from work in Hamburg to West Seneca was quite a scary ride to be honest, had to be at least 2”/hr rates. Everyone had their hazards on and you could still barely see them. Not a band event but just think what could have been without so much wind shear...

They closed Eden schools today, now they’re probably wondering why with peeks of sun likely until this afternoon. Lol!

All 06z model runs look like the city may only see 1-2” at best and even the Southtowns like Hamburg and OP may only see about 6” with how sheared apart that band is. Models cut way down on QPF and residence time looks to be very limited.In a few hours models have the band shooting north to about Amherst/Tonawanda and then very quickly scooting back through and dropping through the city and then into ski country within a few hours. On to the next one!

That band is definitely sheared apart pretty bad. Great call by the NWS on forecasting that. The band looks like it’s dead stationary about 3-5 miles to my south or if anything the motion on it looks like it may actually being starting to sink south a bit which is very surprising. What if this is as far north as it gets and it never even makes it to the city? Haha. got about 1/2” outside at my house in WS. Looking at webcams Hamburg is getting hit pretty good and must have several inches already.

Either the NAM is gonna score a coup or it’s gonna get embarrassed badly. Not sure which one it’s gonna be. It has the band RACING through from Niagara Falls to Olean in 4 hours. That would be like a 15 minute residence time for any one given location. Lol.

All models showing that transition snow hole as usual :/ I really need to buy my next house south of 20A.

NAM looks horrible off Erie, 2-4” max.

Models look to be pushing band through much quicker then yesterday’s runs. Don’t think any one area will be under the band for more than 2 hours or so which should greatly limit accumulations even if it’s cranking out 3”/hr and thundersbow.

Trust me the hi res nam has it nailed down. Bullseye on the Chautauqua Ridge with a lesser secondary maxima over the northtowns with a nice hole right over South Buffalo and West Seneca. Happens almost every event lately.

Looks more right, goes from 1 foot to 4 inches. Gonna go with 2-4" for Buffalo. Max of 5" in Williamsville/Clarence 2" in south Buffalo and West Seneca. 3" in Hamburg. Yawn! Between this boring weather, the Bills, and the Sabres, someone wake me up January 1st. Thanks!

You really gotta take their snow totals with a grain of salt. I like Todd Santos personality and think he is great for an on air met but their snow maps and correlation between what their own in house models show and what forecast map they come up with is just puzzling. Honestly channel 7 has the best mets now and I am beginning more and more to watch them for weathercasts even though I've been a loyal channel 4 guy my entire life (especially since the start of the WIVB blog 10+ years ago).

New hi res NAM drops a foot right over KBUF!

This looks good to me. Would get the band up to the city for several hours. Fingers crossed!

Why?

Sorry been a busy day. Finished a smidge under 5” here which has already melted and compacted to about 2.5-3”. Was in quite the relative snow hole but am happy that this overachieved in the northtowns in seemed! Now let’s get a nice SW flow event to sit over “the transition zone” Steve and I always seem to be in.

I’m only 6 miles away from you and I’m only at 13.9” on the season... unless we get a solid SW flow event (Dec 2010, Nov 2014) we really seem to get screwed on just about every event. NW flow events are the worst for this area as there’s always a hole from South Buffalo down to near Hamburg and over to South Cheektowaga and Elma. Oh well still will finish November slightly above average but somehow still feels like we got shafted a bit.

Even when intensity picks up a bit which isn’t too much the flakes are TINY. It looks like sugar crystals so it’s really having a tough time accumulating much even with a temperature of 30.6 degrees.

It must be because temperatures are pretty warm and the snow is a slushy wet snow which shows up as higher reflectivities vs a dry powdery snow. Bet somewhere on the Chautauqua Ridge lands up over 2 feet.

How’s it looking up there?

Take some good pictures and/or video. I’m gonna be living it through you.