lakeeffectkid383

Some raindrops actually mixing in here too now. Smh. Hopefully this doesn’t last too long.

All sleet here now in West Seneca. What a waste of QPF!

All snow in West Seneca.

Likely because Don Paul left. Still like Mike Cejka he has a very great on air personality but I agree some of the forecasting on WIVB is head scratching. Channel 7 actually has the best team of mets I believe.

Not that it matters but Mike Cejka from channel 4 here in Buffalo has 3-5" for Niagara County, then 2-4" for Buffalo (Northern Erie) and for Genesee County which makes no sense what so ever.

Yeah it’s the NAM but verbatim BUF to SYR all sees 5-8”. Best run yet for BUF. If you look at the actual position of the low it is west compared to 18z run. I do believe it’s overdone and do believe for the lake plain the BL is going to be too marginal to accumulate efficiently. I’m sticking with my call of less than 3” at BUF but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if we dropped an extra degree or two and picked up 5-6”.

Forgot YYZ too, I apologize! YYZ : 1.2”

BUF 2.8” ROC 4.7” SYR 5.9” BGM 6.6” ELM 8.4” KFZY 6.1” KART 5.8” KJHW 4.1”

WWA posted for all of KBUF CWA except for Niagara County. 3-5” for WNY including BUF and ROC, 5-8” SE and E of L.O.

KBUF first call. Looks pretty good to me.

But below normal temps don't equate to snow. As BuffaloWeather posted these well below normal temps now with no good setups for lake effect for the metro in the foreseeable future is just killing all the lakes warmth so when we finally get a chance late in Nov or in Dec it's likely not going to be as good as it could have been had it not been so well below normal now. The lake is already in the upper 40s and could be close to 40 by the end of the month. I know it's still early but I'm not liking the chances at all for above normal snowfall for the Niagara Frontier at all. I think storms will stay mainly to our east and lake effect events will be predominantly WNW to NW for the next several weeks. Ski country and SE and E of L.O. looks to be in a good spot but around Buffalo we'll be lucky to see scattered dustings here and there through at least Thanksgiving, but I suppose that's not out of the ordinary this early in the season.

I don't think WNY (West of ROC) sees more than 2" from this...NAM is wrong and everything will be east. You guys may actually be in a better spot (far enough east to get better moisture and just far enough west to be cold enough to keep it mostly snow). My call now is BUF 1", ROC 2", SYR 4". After next weekend pattern looks to flip and whole country looks to flood with pacific air. Could be till December after this before we see more legit chances at snow. With only 0.7" of snow (all of which falling on Friday) we could be ending November with next to nothing in the snow department. Pretty cruddy after what looked like it could be a promising start a couple days ago but I guess that's why our average high is still nearly 50 and BUFs average first 1" isn't until NOV 18th. Wake me up when November ends.

Not even a single flake here. Bummer. Band might make it back up to you BuffaloWeather but no way it makes it back up to me. Just gonna be a cold windy day here.

Why can't it set up right here when it's snow?!?

42.5 degrees here. Not a good feeling about this. Feel like the cold earlier held on a bit longer than forecasted but once the temp finally broke 33 degrees which it stayed until mid afternoon, it definitely warmed up quite a bit. Might have the band set up right over us but it's gonna be all liquid for at least the next 5-6 hours.

Give me 4” and I’ll be thrilled. Get to use the snowblower for the first time this year!

Nice start here already and pounding snow!

Was just going to post that the 00z 3km NAM moved the band much further north then the 18z run. Pretty big difference in sensible impacts for the southtowns from one run to another. Top 18z, bottom 00z

I’d be thrilled with 3-4”. Bring it on. I really think like BuffaloWeather said, this is gonna be a nowcast event.

Yep new AFD says band from northtowns into Southtowns with 1-2” in northtowns and 3-6” across Southtowns. Should be nice just to see real flakes flying again. Anything to cover the grass and I’m a happy camper.

Short range meso models really getting that band close to the city...

12z NAM both 12k and 4K get the band up to the heart of the Southtowns for a while. With the early season bias of bands coming further north than forecasted I could see this just about making it to downtown. If I had to make a call I’d go with 1” downtown. 2-4” in the immediate Southtowns and 4-8” in the further Southtowns like Hamburg and OP then 8-12” over the Boston Hills.

Although if it verified Verbatim we get dusting to 1” while Grand Island is digging out from under 2 feet haha.

Come on NAM and CMC. A back to back 6-12” lake effect and 6-12” synoptic storm this early would be epic! One can dream, right?

Latest 06z BTV wrf has well over 2” of QPF just south of Buffalo through Saturday afternoon... this is definitley way overdone but I would not be surprised to see some heavy wet snow with lots of graupel and thunder/lightning Saturday morning.