The Iceman

Mt holly first call: Looks good, pretty bullish especially into s jersey. They don't seem to think the rain/snow line progresses past the shore at this time based on that map.

Boom!

Call it weenie intuition on a Friday afternoon but I think 95 is going to get Nam'd at happy hour.

We are torching today... Almost up to 50 in Trenton. Heavy meltdown. We're gonna need that 3-6" on Sunday to refresh the pack.

Incoming on the euro. Every op 12z model has this long duration event setting up next week with Arctic air near by. Right now looks like a classic ice signal but that can evolve based on where the pc sets up.

Philly http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KPHL&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg

Based on mt Holly's afd this morning, I'd be surprised if winter storm watches go up this afternoon. They seem pretty down on the threat... Seem to think it maxes out as a general area of 1-3" at this time. The long term period will begin with another coastal low that is expected to pass close enough to the Mid Atlantic region to bring some impactful weather. The 00z guidance did not change much from earlier guidance, so will will continue with an increase in precipitation probabilities across the area. All available guidance now brings precipitation to the area, with much of the region at least starting out as snow, with areas along and north of the I-95 corridor remaining mostly snow through the evening, and areas farther south, especially eastern Maryland, much of Delaware, and southern/eastern New Jersey changing over to rain before the precipitation ends. Farther north and west, the QPF amounts are less where temperatures are cold enough for all snow, while farther south and east where the QPF amounts are higher where temperatures will warm faster. So the current snowfall forecast does not have a large range, generally 1-3 inches. If a northwestward trend continues, higher amounts could shift north and westward. The best timing currently is for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through early afternoon Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, the low will continue to move far enough to our northeast that precipitation will end across the area

Looking like another long duration winter event is taking shape for next weekend. Still a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

Overall things look pretty good for a nice 6-8 hour event that drops 3-6" for much of the area with an outside shot of 6-10" in a narrow corridor with the heaviest rates. I don't believe this will be elevation dependent, more so rate dependent when it comes to accumulation.

Can you post it? Only out to 120 on tt. Is it similar to 00z with the 3 day wave train thing going?

.5" this morning in Hopewell, was coming down at a good clip for a time there. Roads were slushy as well. Didn't change over to sleet/rain until precip had shut off. Nice little refresher but the drips are already put in full force.

Exactly that, there's a class that you sit through and at the end you get a neat little card with your spotter ID and how to directions on submitting reports. It's actually a fun class, nothing like earth shattering but I'd go again to update my spotter card since my address has changed lol

Nam stops the nw trend for now. Definite tick back southeast with a less amplified low. Great hit for the shore areas that got little to nothing this past storm though. Will be interesting to see what the rest of guidance does.

18z euro really highlights how warm the BL is... If we don't get good rates, it's likely a light rain. This is dynamics or bust.

enjoy those 1000 mile swings between runs btw that's the para gfs, not the gfs and it has been consistently outperforming the euro the last month or so.

Guidance has brought this one back from the dead at 12z. Almost every model now showing something for the area besides the Canadian suite and nothing really preventing the N ticks to continue. I think this one has a good shot of being a nice quick hitter with 3-6" potential. 3 days out only, time for dedicated storm thread. I hope it isn't the kiss of death

there's a new king in town

Big time jump NW compared to 00z. That model is just plain broken right now.. you'd almost never see the euro swing that significantly inside 84 hours in the past. It's pretty much in line with the GFS now, just with a warmer BL.

Euro says even down toward 95 may have a shot at a coating tomorrow morning with the front. Very little rain for anyone besides s jersey and delaware.

From what I remember from when I was looking into met schools back in 2009, I'm pretty sure Miss St's program was guided towards broadcast meteorologists. That was also undergrad though so I'm not sure if their masters program is guided similarly towards broadcast mets. I just remember their undergrad program wasn't nearly as math/physics intensive as other meteorology schools and they had a more communications background in their curriculum. Obviously a lot can change in 10 years though. I went to Millersville for undergrad in Met and while I didn't finish my degree in meteorology, their professors and staff were all outstanding! I've heard great things about their Master's programs as well from friends that I graduated with..though I don't think they offer a specific masters in meteorology, I believe they offer Masters in Atmospheric Science or something to that degree.

The real 12z icon actually ticked se and is more in line with the gfs now. Interesting how the icon has barely wavered on this storm despite being an awful model it's definitely lead the way so far though. Now let's see what the ukie/euro do. Think we want to at least see the nw trend continue on them since they were so far se.

Gfs pretty similar to 6z. Maybe a tick further N. Definitely not major changes from 6z though. Honestly a pretty good spot to be in at this range since I don't think the n trend is done by any means. Bl temps are already iffy though, going to need the rates to stay frozen around 95 imo

Rgem and nam are game for 1-3" in the lehigh valley tomorrow btw with the front. Even upper bucks and montco could see coating to an inch. Areas that see rain also don't see much of it so we should all keep our packs mostly intact.

You're right, its an old run from tt, good catch

Rgem still wants nothing to do with Sunday. Not even a tick north from 06z. Icon still on board though it's mostly rain for 95.