nw baltimore wx

11/15/18 2.0" 1/12-13/19 5.0" 1/18/19 1.3" 1/29/19 0.7" Total: 9.0"

Snow Squall Warning for Allegheny, Grant, and Mineral counties. Good call, Millville!

I'm waiting for someone to break out the "D" word.

I think that the short range models showing the early precipitation breaking out in the northern tier has them worried. The advisory for them (and you) begins at 4AM while the rest of the area doesn't start until noon.

If anyone can talk dirty on this forum, it's you. Give us the details...

I agree with Mattie's yeast list (and recipe, though I like some oats in there too) and I also use the Wyeast 1318 regularly. I've also used the San Diego Super yeast that Scraff mentioned and holy $&*#, it's called super for a reason. Does he need to get a list of equipment to the professor tomorrow too? I don't know if you mentioned it, but is planning on doing one 5 gallon batch and separating it into 6 fermenting vessels? I'm not sure that it's helpful, but White Labs in Asheville, NC, does this exact experiment. They have several of the same beers in their tap room that all came from the same batch but fermented with different yeasts. Super cool to be able to sample the differences.

This is awesome! Hopefully Jonjon sees it and can give some professional advice. Unfortunately I can't go to brewing websites from work, so I'll get back to you later today.

Good find, Showme! I couldn't find anything using lwx in my searches.

Here's the radar loop. You may have to enter the dates. Right now I don't see much in the way of similarities. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=19&minute=0

By the way, the new record for wettest 12 month period for BWI and DCA is February 1, 2018 - January 31, 2019. Last February was really wet (5.30" BWI, 4.79" DCA), so this might be the end of it, though March 2018 was drier than normal, so a big March this year might continue the record. If I didn't make a mistake (entirely possible), so far: BWI 73.86" DCA 68.44"

This may not belong here, but does anyone remember the February 11, 2006 storm? I think it started as rain in the evening and quickly went to heavy snow. It ended up dumping a foot or more of fluffy, light snow on gusty northwesterly winds. Just checking to see if that is similar to what the euro might be trying to do with the Tuesday evening system. eta: I'm not trying to suggest that we are getting a foot of snow, but just trying to remember the evolution of the 2006 system.

1.23” for the event. Really hoping to get well below freezing the next couple of nights so I can skate on my neighbor’s new pond.

I never gave up on Sunday night. Just need a lot of luck with timing.

There's a good discussion going in the storm tracker thread that I don't want to disrupt, but I haven't given up on Sunday night/early Monday. Definitely low percentage, but if we get one of those northern stream shortwaves pinwheeling around the trough timed correctly, I think that the gulf low can come climb the coast. Like I said, odds are low, but they are almost always low for snow around here.

Sun angle speak in 3, 2, 1...

Lol. Well, in this case, other than PG county, it's the Virginia schools that are all delayed. No surprise if that changes though.

It's cold out, but I'm on Mattie's team regarding the 2 hour delays popping up for tomorrow morning. Man, we are soft.

Were you over at Bond today? I was hoping to go but work got in the way. It's always a great event.

Yep. I remember that discussion now. I wouldn't have remembered the details though, so thanks for the answer.

Hopefully this doesn't get lost in here in the banter thread, but a model question for those in the know. Are the gefs an ensemble of the old gfs, the new fv3, or are both incorporated? This has probably already been discussed somewhere and I don't remember reading it.

I disagree on the flash freeze being a myth, but I do agree that it doesn't happen with the passage of an arctic front like yesterday. Downsloping winds pretty much rule that out for us. However, there have been several instances of flash freezing in our area particularly after a cold rain event in the early morning hours with the right conditions. If the rain stops at night and the skies start to clear right around sunrise, roads can suddenly become skating rinks. The weird part about it is that air temperatures don't have to be below freezing. As long as they are close to freezing and skies start to clear, ice forms. I think it has something to do with the conditions for rapid evaporation, but that's only a guess. If the storm this week was 6-12 hours slower, it would be one that could have brought those conditions early Friday morning. But since it's expected to end Thursday evening, it probably won't.

Nice to wake up and have some good reading again. Thanks showme! I'm already looking beyond Thursday and keeping any eye on the changes from run to run of the fv3 for Sunday, particularly the timing of the southern low in the Gulf and the northern one crossing the Great Lakes. The 0z looked better at the surface compared to the 6z, but I think the changes at 6z where the northern low is faster is probably the direction we need to go. I am thinking that if it can get a little faster, we might get enough separation in the two so that the low out of the Gulf can climb the coast. Now tell me how wrong I am!

The fv3 certainly has my interest for Monday. The northern stream piece rotating through could screw it up, but if timed right, couldn't it help too? As it's shown tonight, is it a little weird that the storm loses steam as it gets out into the Atlantic?

Mid season swoon. No worries.

42 here and a few wind gusts have arrived. I'm looking forward to the game this evening and then bundling up for the lunar eclipse which will surely include some whiskey.