nw baltimore wx

Sunrise Sunday looks amazing.

I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work.

Good stuff! Thanks.

So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled better. I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow. Is there anyone still awake that's in the know?

Put that guy on ignore. I have very few people on that list, but he's one of them.

We are so fortunate to have you around and even more fortunate that you’re patient.

That’s got to be kuchera, right?

I had to work the brewery tonight so just got caught up. Tonight’s the beginning of better euro runs and even better tomorrow when the northern stream gets sampled!

I know the AFD today mention the “barren” area for the northern stream, but does anyone know when that will be well-sampled?

Hopefully someone that knows what they are talking about will see your questions and answer them, but I think confluence has to do with how tightly the streamlines are spaced on a weather map. The more tightly space (higher confluence) the more likelihood of precipitation and storm enhancement. So, when we heard in the main thread someone saying that confluence looked lower, that is a good thing for this specific storm because if it gets too juiced up, the primary low is more likely to go more north into the Ohio valley, and bring in more warm air aloft over us. Now someone can correct me. Except @bncho. He's on my sh&t list for calling me old.

Nam looks good.

Regardless of where the nam goes the rest of this run, everyone remember that it is the nam. I'm not model bashing, just pointing out that past 60 hours it may be on acid.

It's going to be a disaster in here once the northern stream gets properly sampled and we go to the suppressed look from early yesterday.

I think the thread title should make a reference to Charlotte's Web and Fern. Maybe call it "Some Pig!"

We can start a banter thread specifically for the storm though. Some may say that's redundant because we already have a banter thread, but it's kind of fun to have the JV team in there throwing out terrible commentary specific to this storm.

This thread started as storm mode.

For my sake, let's hope it's age and not hard liquor.

To this day, I still don't know what or who BAM is.

My childhood stomping grounds! Yea, you don't know us well.

Crazy? Yes, but not for the reason you think.

PE is over?

All those people in here that were talking about tearing down the mountains last month should take note.

It's been said, but this part of this morning's AFD is what I'll be thinking about through today's model runs. "With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes"

12/5 0.2” 12/13 2.8” 1/1 0.1” 1/17 0.4” 1/18 0.2" Total: 3.7”

It sounds like they should, but it also sounds like the northern stream data may not be as well sampled until the arctic high gets over the conus later tomorrow. I could be entirely wrong about that, but reading that WPC statement tells me that it's too early to throw in the towel.