GRR has you in the 12-18" total by the time it ends. I wouldn't give up yet. Stacking pixie dust here at a reasonable rate. Drifting is starting and when the winds pick up it will be crazy outside for sure.
It is the battle of the 1" or under QPF models (GPDS and ECMWF) vs those over 1" (GFS, UKMET, and even at 84 hours the NAM). I wonder which one(s) will win. Two very different scenarios on the map at this point.
What is the world is the GFS doing with the low pressure in the midwest around the 12th? That is an odd looking evolution that I would bet doesn't occur.
GRR with one of the best descriptions I have seen in regards to why inland areas did better than the usual west of US-131 areas.
I can attest to the snow pellets. We had a lot of that vs. the snow flakes seen farther inland.
Farther inland seems to be the winner with this one. GRR did quite well while here in Zeeland at work there was maybe 2" this morning. Don't know if the winds were too strong and blowing everything inland but I have seen some crazy totals for LES in places you wouldn't normally expect it.
Just saw 7.6 inches at midnight at GRR. Seems like the winds were a little too strong today and pushed the snow more inland. Someone is going to have some impressive totals in West Michigan out of this and that is small amounts compared to Northern Lower Michigan or Western New York.
My area did ok overnight. Picked up about 3-1/2” maybe 4”. Had about 2” yesterday so overall not too bad. Allegan county looks to have the most based on radar. Interesting to see what some of the totals are this morning. In the end the NWS will probably be correct for my area with their initial range, just not as impressive as you would think because of the long duration the event. Lots of time with little or.no snow in the air.
We have had more graupel/pellets than actual flakes at times. Still slowly adding up but certainly not a good way to run a winter storm warning level of snow.