NeonPeon

What's several hundred miles between friends?

This NAM is an almost poetic account of everything that could go perfectly wrong with something pretty good.

Ah, but how will you know those conditions are met without tracking?

The GFS still shows a freakish bomb. I am not sure the details (strange oscillation and lobed low) is that convincing.

I'm not spooked, there's a great storm brewing that seems increasingly likely to do well for all. Its sensible impacts here are almost certainly going to be less than everywhere else, due to climo. I've yet to see a nor'easter not favor other areas, and I've been here for more than a decade now. As to the cape being nervous? They know the deal, as do I, for any storm, unless they are unhinged. Mixing is often a threat that requires tracking till the last minute. They aren't going to turn on being nervous or not at 3 days out. They are nervous till the flakes fall, if they are weenies at all.

This is how you get an STD.

And you're immune to this how, exactly? You're someone on the interior joyfully hoping that the cape rains so that you get your snow. Tale as old as time. Well, not really, since the advent of publicly consumable computer modeling, anyway.

Ah. I was just teasing anyway. I thought he meant 1-3', which would be plausible at that amount of liquid with good cold and perhaps not too much wind aloft in the interior?

Me.

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

I think you may be slightly conservative.

We know where that snow hole would actually set up.

That's twice my mighty haul so far.

You moved to a place and don't know whether it's flood prone? Perhaps whateverhappenshappens would be more apposite.

If anyone in the bay doesn't know by now, inches of snow is the least of their problem. Basic pattern recognition is a life skill.

I would dance a jig for any major snowfall. Haven't seen one in a couple years. Which is why I'm looking forward to this trending west, then being assured that I'll still get significant snow after we flip back from rain, then watching a band to our west while sucking subsidence, then just as that band should move overhead it disintegrates and forms east of me. Lastly to come on here and listen to people bitching about getting only 10 inches instead of 18 while I look at 4 inches of paste. Something like that, don't want to get too specific at this stage.

Rain is worse than cold and dry. You cant go outside and it's ugly.

Isn't sticking here. Not even really a dusting. Still, nice vibes on the cliff walk.

Significant accumulation of strawman here.

Just flipped here. Kid is home and quarantining. I'll take some ornamental snow.

Most of the wind down here is just nice and steady 20-30 mph stuff. Nothing crazy. Good luck to those in the blue.

A whiffer into a rainer sounds like an average January to me!

If you want to be perpetually disappointed it's a good starting point.

Rain into snow as it spins up.

I'll take a 958 mb bomb somewhere in the general hemisphere as something to watch. My winter spirit has been awakened, and it must do something before it goes to bed disappointed in a couple months.