snowman19

Besides the -QBO, PDO and the fact that there was an El Nino, I never saw ‘09 as a match. This El Nino is not only stronger, it developed as a pure east-based/EP event. ‘09 was a classic, textbook Modoki, start to finish. It was also -IOD, which affects MJO progression, don’t remember what the solar was but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a solar max year. The AMO wasn’t anywhere near as positive, you had an Atlantic tripole, you didn’t have record amounts of volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere either, AGW wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced as it is now, the STJ is already very strong now, the STJ response is different when there’s a Modoki, you had well above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October, arctic sea ice was higher, (not that those matter to me, but still)…..

I really don’t think the -PDO is forcing the pattern even though it’s strongly negative. Maybe when it was record strong positive like back during the 14-15 winter, there was some feedback with those insanely warm ++ GOA and west coast SSTs, but other than that, no. Studies have shown that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. The 2 main drivers I see this winter will be the El Niño and ++IOD. I think the MJO will largely be a non factor which is typical with strong ENSO events. When there is activity I expect it to be weak and fast moving and not in “La Niña” phases 3-6, so I guess that’s really a plus. The other secondary factors I see are the Hunga Tonga water vapor…what effects does that ultimately have on the stratosphere?, -QBO, solar (very high solar activity and geomag, approaching a solar max), ++AMO; right now there is no semblance of a “tripole”/New Foundland cold pool in the Atlantic, raging strong STJ, AGW must be factored in too. I can care less what arctic sea ice and Judah’s SAI does as both have proven to be a debacle over the last 15 years, that said, Siberian snowcover development to this point in time has been really horrible, lowest of the last 9 years on his index chart and sea ice is very low, below average…..the people who still follow it, take that for what you will

Massive WWB ongoing, going to trigger another DWKW. The SOI is down to -23

A powerful STJ is definitely not a La Niña hallmark:

I agree. The MJO is and has been dead in phases 3-6 (IO/Maritime Continent), thanks to the subsidence from the strong El Niño standing wave and the ++IOD. The SOI is also -22. You also have a massive WWB ongoing and ENSO warming. I don’t see where there’s La Niña forcing @roardog Look at this…..Where is the “La Niña forcing”???:

SOI down to -22 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Now it definitely will be. You are the kiss of death

Our lines in the sand are drawn then. I think we go trimonthly super ONI and you think it stays strong. The time for speculation is almost over and we will soon see where it goes without guessing anymore. One of us will be right…

Have you seen an OISST update for Nino 3.4 anywhere? It’s stuck on 10/17 on cyclonicwx. Just read a tweet saying it’s up over +1.83C on OISST but I can’t confirm that. It did jump well over +1.7C on CRW

Like you said, you can find studies that will say that the earth is flat, up is down and down is up, black is white and white is black. All the studies I’ve seen suggest that arctic/polar stratospheric water vapor (Hunga Tonga) results in a cold stratosphere and a strong SPV, I’m sure you can find studies that will completely contradict that and say it causes the weakest SPV in history and an inferno stratosphere See here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

We are going into a very solid period of Nino strengthening….

The +IOD continues to strengthen. I’m confident it beats the ‘19 peak come November. The models don’t return it to completely neutral until February

The Nino is not going to +3.0C lol but +2.1C - +2.3C for a NDJ trimonthly average? I can absolutely see that. I think this one peaks in December, although some models are showing a January peak. Regardless, they all have a slow demise into February and March. None of them show it rapidly falling apart

@GaWx ENSO/IOD/MJO forcing this winter:

IMO a trimonthly super ONI is inevitable at this point AND Paul says region 4 actually cools over the next several months. It also looks like region 1+2 stays solidly above +2C right through February, at least, like the models have been showing :

@40/70 Benchmark We can also entertain the fact that this research shows that -QBO/Nino results in much less snow (below average per the study actually) than +QBO/Nino does. I guess there’s 2 sides to everything http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

Correct. The sample size of strong/super Ninos is way too small. Back in May/June we had people saying this event was going to really struggle to even become moderate because of “history”, yet here we are….

One thing is for certain, it’s not becoming a Modoki no matter how much JB tweets that it is. That ship has sailed

Given this look, I don’t think MJO phases 3-6 will be an issue. It’s pretty clear at this point that the El Niño standing wave and the +IOD are going to run the tropical forcing show this winter. The MJO may very well prove to be a non factor the overwhelming majority of the time this winter (typical for strong/super Niños). When there actually is MJO activity it’s probably going to be very weak, fast moving and not in the IO or Maritime Continent

Nino 1+2 is warming right back up on OISST and CRW….well over +2C again. The models have it staying in the upper +2’s right through January. Regardless of what the atmospheric forcing does or where it migrates, it seems that at least from an oceanic, SST standpoint, this event is bound and determined to stay east-based/EP https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Please stop. Absolutely horrible analysis and bad, bad info. If you are going to post nonsense like this just don’t post. This Nino is in fact very well coupled, SOI, STJ response, SSTs, WWB, Nino standing wave/convection, etc. This is a typical MJO phase 8 response for this time of the year with +ENSO, +GLAAM. Phase 8 isn’t cold this time of the year with a Nino in place. Look at the MJO composite!

The EPAC tropics have come alive. This is only going to positively feedback and cause further Nino strengthening (WWBs behind these tropical cyclones). The strengthening system is in place now and further coupling is coming. I predict we are at or above +2.0C in region 3.4 by 11/7.