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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yea, possibly, if we believe that MJO progression is correct, but my guess is March averages warmer to much warmer than normal. Early March at least looks way above average. Past strong El Nino events had warm early-mid March’s but they did get cooler after mid-March. We’ll see
  2. snowman19
    Would not surprise me if the tail end of February and March torch, then a huge -NAO block shows up in April and we keep getting backdoored for 30 days
  3. snowman19
    It’s not even on life support. Its in the cemetery
  4. snowman19
    Here comes the latest SSW non event. The stratospheric models have been about as reliable as the weeklies . The dumpster fire continues….
  5. snowman19
    No offense but don’t you live in Philadelphia? What exactly are you hoping to get down there in March? And all the SSW hype has been fail after fail all winter. Total voodoo
  6. snowman19
    72-73 has actually been a decent analog. Both very strong El Niño, both strong -PDO
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    Ok Joe Bastardi
  9. snowman19
    It’s not even remotely worth looking at the CFS for March until like 2/28. They have a known record of not having the slightest glimmer of a clue and flip flop like a fish out of water until just before the next month starts
  10. snowman19
    @bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012
  11. snowman19
    I got around 8 inches
  12. snowman19
    Past strong/super El Niños did get less hostile after mid-March. Early-mid March strongly favors a hostile, warmer than normal pattern though, looking back at history. Problem is that post mid-March, minus some very anomalous event, you are really fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day and it gets worse with each passing day at that point. The clock will really be ticking
  13. snowman19
    Hope you enjoyed
  14. snowman19
    The setup next week is God awful
  15. snowman19
    Here comes the last minute north trend. Shocker!! @ag3 There will be WWA’s hoisted later this afternoon, probably all the way up into the NW suburbs. Good God the models have been awful with these last 2 events
  16. snowman19
    The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC…..
  17. snowman19
    Good luck
  18. snowman19
    IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking
  19. snowman19
    RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight
  20. snowman19
    Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup
  21. snowman19
    It most likely will, however there is going to be a limit to how far north it bumps. You want to be south of 287 for this one
  22. snowman19
    Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC
  23. snowman19
    Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it
  24. snowman19
    I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly
  25. snowman19
    If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO
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