snowman19

If the Pacific jet doesn’t slow down big time nothing is going to change. An extended Pacific firehose aimed at western North America definitely doesn't = cold and and snow in the east. I’m also not understanding some of the hype on twitter right now calling for an arctic cold late December. That’s going to be a really good trick considering all of the arctic air is locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia

This Nino is a top 4 warmest event in region 3.4 since 1950. It’s neck and neck with 82-83 right now with only 97-98 and 15-16 being stronger: More warming to come mid-late December as the MJO moves strongly in phase 7, triggering a very impressive WWB and +AAM spike:

New CPC ENSO weekly update: 1+2: +2.0C 3: +2.0C 3.4: +2.0C 4: +1.7C https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

You are one of the people on the MJO 7, 8, 1, 2 train. If that actually happens then it has to warm more and trigger a WWB. It’s not going through those phases and cooling. You can’t have it both ways

Yep. That STJ signal is only going to get stronger over the next 4 weeks with the MJO wave coupling, big WWB, +AAM flip and strong Nino convection really starting to fire. The OHC is up to +1.65 and the subsurface warming from the DWKW has been extremely impressive. Think we are about to see an imminent major uptick in region 3.4 temps

Still trying to figure out where a certain someone thinks all this frigid arctic cold is going to come from being that it’s all on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well. Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging. Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

Proof that we can be mild with PAC air despite -AO/-NAO

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks

The PAC “wakes up” in a very big way real soon…constructive MJO interference/WWB/+AAM….should lead to rapid intensification and warming

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? Why are you so confident there is going to be this massive drop in SSTs? So you are predicting a very huge trade wind burst then I guess? I mean in fairness, you have been minimizing this event for months. I understand why you didn’t want to see this get as strong as it is now

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol

Unmmm ok? Since region 3.4 is over +2.15C right now. The new WWB doesn’t have to be as strong as this last one, which was extremely strong, it pushed the +30C warm pool east of the dateline, triggered a massive DWKW that caused huge subsurface warming and a very big increase in the OHC. It won’t take much now to push region 3.4 to +2.4C on a weekly reading once the constructive interference from the MJO occurs since it literally has less than +0.3 to go @Mitchnick Why are you so worried that it may go officially trimonthly super ONI (which looks very likely) Mitch?

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

Nino 3.4 has warmed again on OISST…up to +2.15C

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Your warm December idea may work out after all Ray lol Maybe don’t abandon it yet

Given the current anomalies and subsurface, I don’t think we will have any problem warming to a trimonthly super ONI next month….the signal for the MJO coupling event with another strong WWB/DWKW by the end of the month is getting stronger and stronger. Also will be interesting to see how high the OHC adjusts for this month as a whole

FWIW…

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month Mitch. 3.4 is already +2C right now @bluewave Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met