snowman19

Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there

Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral

A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave

As depicted, very clearly not an east-based Niña despite what Twitter may be saying….

I think the record low arctic sea ice is contributing to the NAO’s behavior in recent winters

Hate to disagree, but IMO, as of right now, I very seriously doubt a -WPO/-EPO winter. I think we can both agree that RNA is going to dominate though. Also, as of now, I think +NAO/+AO dominates. Not my final thought however, I’ll give my final guess in November

The SSTs around Japan are actually ridiculously warm now, right after that TC passage, it warmed right back up and rapidly so. That is a classic +WPO/-PDO signature

This is the 1st time in a long time that Nino region 4 is negative

Agree about the ENSO configuration. If you compare the subsurface now to 2017 (a true east-based event), it’s not even remotely close

The Atlantic continues to look deader than a doornail. If we end up below 100 ACE for the season, it will be one of the most epic forecast busts of all time for a lot of people….

Besides the cold-neutral state, if I’m not mistaken the IOD was positive, which may have helped alter the MJO forcing in 13-14 too, in addition to the very different PDO configuration. That winter was not only predominant -WPO/-EPO, the PNA also went through the roof positive at times, I believe there were +3 +PNA spikes that winter if I remember correctly. The PAC side saved that winter, the NAO/AO were severely positive all winter. I very, very seriously doubt we see a Pacific pattern anywhere close to that one this winter

Even though 13-14 (cold-neutral) was “technically” a -PDO it sure did not behave like one on the PAC side, in fact, it exactly mimicked a +PDO and a real strong one at that. The PAC SST configuration was completely different than what we are seeing now, which caused that very strong +PDO/+TNH response. Classic +TNH in fact. @bluewave made a post a little over a month ago explaining the reasons for it. The Atlantic side is definitely similar and it ended up being ++NAO/++AO that winter. It was all Pacific driven

The thing I remember most about 07-08 besides it barely snowing that winter, was the massive Thanksgiving Day torch. It was like 70 degrees and my cousins and I were outside in shorts and short sleeves playing football that afternoon

07-08 was an unmitigated, epic disaster south of New England. For NYC: November: no snow that month, 2nd warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. December: 12/2 - 1.4 inches of snow, washed away by rain. 12/16 - sleet and rain, 1 inch of frozen (sleet). January: 1/31 - Trace of snow, which was the total for the month. February: 2/12 - 2.8 inches of snow followed by sleet/freezing rain, then a huge torch and very heavy rain into 2/13. 2/22 - 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, biggest storm of the entire winter. 2/29 - 0.2 of snow and the last time it snowed that winter. March: nothing. April: nothing. Sources: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/02/new-york-weather-highlights-2007.html%20 https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/02/new-york-weather-highlights-2008-.html%20

The new NMME is out FWIW:

This solar max is now on par with the solar cycle 23 max (01-02), in terms of sunspots, radio flux (a whopping 246 radio flux) and geomag activity At this point, it doesn’t appear that any of the main variables (central based -ENSO, strong -PDO, weak -IOD, -PMM, +QBO, high solar flux/sunspots, high geomag, low arctic sea ice, +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, record warm SSTs in MJO phases 4-6) are going to change as we go into met winter. The only unknown is if the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang volcanic eruptions end up having any stratospheric effects, though likely to be minimal

The -PDO is strengthening and a healthy -PMM is also starting to emerge with the cooling off Baja. And it looks like a GOA cold pool is poised to develop as the strong cooling in the Bering Sea results in downstream cooling of the GOA:

Not hanging my hat on just that but it’s a very good bet that the atmosphere is going to put the strongest convection over the warmest SSTs, just looking at the laws of physics/thermodynamics. Very likely the MJO favors those phase regions. When you have SSTs that anomalously warm, it alters the global heat budget and subsequently the main forcing

IMO that changes this year @bluewave The warmest SSTs on the planet are right in the MJO phase 4-6 regions. Gee, I wonder where the main tropical convective forcing is going to set up shop?

IMO the dry pattern we entered at the tail end of August is going to have staying power this fall. I’m expecting the next 3 months (SON) to be drier than normal as well as warmer than normal

Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles

One thing is for sure, the Atlantic is currently dead. If you look back on history, the years that were this quiet in this time frame since August never came back. Would not be the least bit surprised to see a final ACE below 100

@Stormchaserchuck1 Looks like your idea that we go into a warmer than normal pattern in earnest again starting in September appears to be spot on. I think this fall (SON) ends up solidly warmer to much warmer than normal and also drier than normal