snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally
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The EPS mean is 7 inches for NYC more for Long Island
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I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh
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Even if this ends up as a 6-10 inch storm and the GFS is overdoing it, it will still end up scoring a coup. It was the only operational model to never completely lose it
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Welp, I will say this with confidence, if this turns into another GFS fail, that model will be totally done and regarded as junk for a very long time in the eyes of many people….including a lot of pro mets….
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The worst rug pull over the last 4 years was December, 2022. That month was primed to rival December, 2010. The only thing that ruined it was the severely negative PNA with a full latitude trough down to Baja (PAC/La Nina/-PDO issues again)…,everything else was absolutely textbook….huge west-based -NAO block, -AO, 50/50 low, -EPO, -WPO, true arctic air in place. Had the PNA even just been less negative, that month would have very likely been epic with at least one KU, if not more than one…..
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If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall
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^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol
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If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..
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The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames
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The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close
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No it’s not. For the love of God, stop this
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It’s just showing a flat, fast moving open wave….doesn't even have a surface low reflection
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All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be
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At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible
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IMO this is either a hit or south and OTS. Warm/cutter or runner is off the table. Extremely confident in that
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Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run
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Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week
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The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week
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Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
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Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now
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It’s not worth taking any of these model runs seriously until Wednesday and Thursday no matter what they show
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I don’t know what to make of Sun-Mon TBH. @bluewave did a write up on the pattern that’s going to be place at that point this morning over in the NYC forum
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Not saying it can’t happen, but the models have been awful with showing the MJO propagating into phase 8 since late November only to have it fail. I guess all we can do is wait and see if it holds and is real this time
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Show me where I predicted a super La Niña or a blowtorch you utter clown. Remember your epic bust with MJO phase 8 for 30 days back in December? @MJO812 Enjoy the rain this coming week
