snowman19

We have been stuck in a semi-permanent, default La Niña pattern for years now, even when we’ve had an El Niño, the background Niña state has still been there. It appears (at least so far) that we are following the exact same pattern again this year….

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

Everything was primed for -AO/-NAO high latitude blocking that winter. Textbook. Solar minimum, -QBO, Modoki El Niño, Atlantic “tripole”…..

To add to this:

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

While we certainly appear to have already reached the “peak” of this -PDO cycle, it looks like we are still in it, probably for at least another year…..

Yea, I saw your studies on it. I believe HM also touched on it in a post here many years ago….descending solar after a max is actually worse for NAO and AO blocking than it is at peak solar max

Although nothing in weather is “impossible”, I would say an El Nino, even a weak one is extremely unlikely

Obviously way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, I think the only things that are obvious at this very early juncture unless something changes dramatically and unexpectedly are: 1) “cold” ENSO is a VERY good bet (question being is it going to be cold-neutral or do we see another weak La Niña?), 2) Still elevated solar and geomag 3) -QBO 4) Hedging towards another -PDO; although not severely negative like the last several 5) possible strong -IOD? 6) Likely -PMM. That’s about it for now….

It’s starting to look like we see, at minimum, a cold-neutral ENSO, with a weak La Niña becoming a distinct possibility

The -PDO aside, the tropical indicators (IOD, PMM, trade winds, SOI, surface/subsurface ENSO profiles) are supportive of a cold-neutral at the very least, with weak La Niña turning into a possibility

I’m starting to wonder if we see a weak La Niña develop. I’ve been saying cold-neutral and I still think that’s the favored outcome but the door seems to be opening for a possible weak Nina to develop this summer/fall. It appears a strong -IOD is taking shape, that, along with a continued -PDO, -PMM and the surface/subsurface/trade wind/SOI trends are seemingly opening the door for a possible weak Niña

I had thought the PDO cycle was going to change this year, but that does not appear to be the case. I think we remain in a -PDO cycle for at least another year. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be severely negative like we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Also becoming more convinced by the day that we see a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña ENSO (based on subsurface, surface, -PMM, trade winds, SOI trends)

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

I’m not assuming anything given its way, way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, a -PDO would not surprise me, although I do not think it will be anywhere near as strong as we have seen over the last 5+ years, which were record breaking

IMO, best guess, we see a cold-neutral, possibly borderline weak La Niña ENSO. El Niño looks extremely unlikely now

Good luck getting an El Niño with this going on:

Completely agree. I’d say right now a cold-neutral is most likely, with a lower chance of a weak La Niña. El Niño being extremely unlikely