snowman19

The initial front end thump is definitely going to be impressive. That’s locked in, I think the only remaining question is, when does the changeover to sleet with the warm nose then dry slot happen? As a sweeping generality, I’d say 6-10 in the NYC metro area (including the immediate north and west suburbs) before the changeover/dry slot

The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight

It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in

I can’t get Pivotal to load right now. Is the 3K NAM similar?

That storm was one of the NAM’s shining moments (there aren’t very many). I remember everyone discounted it because, well it’s the NAM. But it nailed the midlevel warm nose perfectly and early. Even the other mesos didn’t pick up on it until it was almost happening and the globals completely missed it. These types of setups are the only reason why, IMO, the NWS shouldn’t totally retire the NAM. It’s literally the only thing it’s good at

There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.”

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

For anyone interested, Hurricane Hunter recon flights are going out again this afternoon and the data they collect will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight. The number/scope of weather balloon launches across the CONUS will also remain increased this afternoon and that data will also be in the new runs at 0z

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place. We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours

The WPC just issued a new disco on the “north trends”, here’s what they have to say, worth the read. I think there may be some big shifts tomorrow once everything is sampled in the new model runs and more balloon launches start and recon flights begin. WPC:

I would wait until Thursday when the players are actually on the field and all the models get the new data. I’m sure weather balloon launches will increase and recon flights will definitely be in the air on Thursday. I call BS on the EURO. Suppression is a very real threat

A cutter with a 1050mb Siberian High and unmodified arctic air/confluence pressing down?! Lmfaooo I’ve seen it all now. The threat is suppression, not cut, not even close

@Gawx

@Gawx Thoughts:

You have no idea what you’re talking about

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

Ratios are going to be lower than 10:1 tomorrow, but it looks good for an inch or so in the immediate NYC metro area, more in eastern Long Island. Highs are going to be in the mid-30’s even up here where I am tomorrow

You’re funny. You’ve been declaring the La Niña dead and buried since December. Ever since you made your arrogant “You know the Niña is dead?” post just over a week ago, it’s been doing nothing but strengthening, strongest of the entire event actually….the SOI is up to almost +28 today, there was a big EWB, region 3.4 is still at -0.8C (dropped to -0.9C a few days ago) and it looks healthier than ever in region 3.4 on the new SST charts. Keep up the great work!