snowman19

At absolutely no point did I ever say it wouldn’t be a weak La Niña. Never ever, not once. However, it is much, much better coupled than last year at this time

In particular, when November sees no measurable snowfall then December goes on to see below average snowfall during a La Niña, it very strongly corresponds to a below to well below average season. Obviously not 100% and I’m sure people can find exceptions to that rule over the course of 100+ years of weather record keeping, but as a sweeping generality it works very well

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year, the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore @GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference

Correct. A cold western IO and a warm eastern IO is textbook negative IOD. If you notice on the SST charts, the western IO is still cooling very rapidly. I believe we are nearing the peak, probably within the next 2 weeks or so and I have very good confidence based on the ongoing cooling and the last weekly update that this event reaches or exceeds -2, which would make it one of the strongest -IOD events in history. It already set a weekly record (since 2000) on the last update

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

Ok? Is this meant as a troll? I’m confused

After a very brief rise towards neutral, the AAM goes deeply negative again, SOI stays stubbornly positive….

To answer your question more specifically, this was literally just posted on X 15 min ago: “The question many people ask is: is MJO good? Does it propagate in the CPAC? Not an easy answer since there are many factors that influence atmospheric circulation, first of all the IOD and secondly the ENSO. A strongly negative phase of the IOD increases tropical convection, enhancing it on the maritime continent with strong WWB, while a negative ENSO with colder SST over the central Pacific (La Nina CP) favors strong EWB on the international date line (180°). This situation sees strong diverging trade winds in the equatorial area. A strong propagation above the CPAC (upward converging heat fluxes) is excluded, if not a rapid phase but with a weak magnitude, there could still be some weak effect even in the mid-latitudes to be evaluated later. The Hovmoller diagram at 850hpa shows this rapid passage of WWB over the CPAC due to the support of a gravitational kelvin wave. The PV could remain weak at the moment due to the eQBO with a probable Canadian Warming whose effects will affect America and less Europe. With these variables, the atmospheric circulation will remain blocked with a tropical convection that will remain on the maritime continent with difficulty in propagating over the Pacific”

@GaWx I’m not sure exactly what it’s going to do, but my educated guess is that it affects MJO behavior, actual specifics? I’m not sure yet. I also think it is going to constructively interfere with the La Niña and enhance atmospheric coupling

I think the biggest issue is the record strong -IOD event ongoing. Just posted on this earlier. That is definitely going to have global consequences in how the forcing goes, December in particular. You aren’t going to have an event this strong and not effect the tropical forcing patterns, especially in the early part of met winter

Lowest since 2012 in that part of the arctic….

Per the latest SST maps, the cooling in the western IO is still going strong, along with warming in the eastern part. My guess is that it bottoms out/peaks within the next 2 weeks either very close to, or at -2 on the weekly numbers. If so, this will be one of the strongest -IOD events in history….

Besides the “blob” situation, a pronounced -PMM has developed as well

If this is correct and it appears to be, this -IOD may be getting down to -2. Would be record breaking and have a very substantial impact on the global forcing

Nice trolling as usual. Which is pretty much what I’d expect from you since you’re totally useless for anything else in this thread

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

I agree. How many times over the last few years have we fell for believing long range model projections that the MJO is going to barrel right through phases 7-8-1 with amplitude only to get burned? Time and again. We are talking about model projections for a month away. It couldn’t even do it when there was an El Niño in 2023-24. I’m not saying it can’t happen but until I see more evidence that it’s actually going to happen in real time color me skeptical. This is a rather healthy La Niña/-IOD atmospherically and oceanically. As the old saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week….. @GaWx

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

I have no doubt that the MJO gets into phase 6. My question is, what happens when it gets into phase 7? As we have seen time and time again over the years, the models inaccurately project it barreling right through phase 7, 8 and 1 with amplitude only to be have it die in phase 7. Definitely something to watch going forward later on in November @bluewave

Another AAM tanking appears imminent And I’m laughing at some of these winter forecasts I’m seeing on Twitter that are using solar minimum/low geomag years as analogs and calling for big time -AO/-NAO blocking