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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..
  2. snowman19
    I honestly have not seen anyone deny that January is a total lost cause. I think everyone has conceded. I agree that the change comes in February, assuming the propagation into 7, 8, 1 really happens at the beginning of February. Question is, is this a sustained cold change into mid-March or is it a quick hit of colder, then back to warmer than normal? I don’t think that can be answered definitively until we get into early February
  3. snowman19
    Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15
  4. snowman19
    It looks like a change to colder isn’t coming until early to mid February, the question then becomes, is it a sustained (through mid-March) period of colder or is it in and out? I’m favoring mid-February, I can see a period of colder, something like 2/15 - 3/15. Once you get past 3/15, deep winter goes on life support south of New England
  5. snowman19
    It has less than half an inch of snow total: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84 And the NAM did not come west, this is bad info: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84
  6. snowman19
    The extreme warmth back in March, 2012 was unreal. I remember having to put on my air conditioner a couple days after St. Patrick’s Day, temps were well into the 80’s
  7. snowman19
    The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful
  8. snowman19
    It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February
  9. snowman19
    Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate
  10. snowman19
    Bluewave, Out of curiosity, which other winters (12/1-now) in NYC had the same or close to the same amount of snow to this point and how did those winters turn out? Snowfall wise?
  11. snowman19
    One of the years mentioned that “snapped back” in February and March was 1993, however, just keep in mind that back then you didn’t have SSTs of 90+ degrees over a large area north of Australia with heavy convection firing over it like we do now. It seems to be a positive feedback loop developing with a standing wave in that region
  12. snowman19
    The EPS is a ridiculously warm pattern starting after 1/10. Overdone? Maybe, but even if overdone wow
  13. snowman19
    The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow
  14. snowman19
    The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag
  15. snowman19
    For what? It’s an all rain event
  16. snowman19
    That heatwave is creating a positive feedback loop with the SSTs there, warming them up even more, the convection just releases even more heat (latent heat) and keeps it going. Going to be hard to break at this point
  17. snowman19
    If that actually happens (phase 4/5, then COD and back to 4/5 late month), that would cook the rest of this month and into at least the beginning of February...
  18. snowman19
    The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12.....
  19. snowman19
    Great job of seeing the warm January from a distance. The period of 1/10-1/16, at least, looks to be way, way warmer than normal
  20. snowman19
    Yea, how JB actually thinks 1/6-1/12 is a great pattern for east coast snowstorms is beyond mystifying. Twilight Zone right there, I’m expecting Rod Serling to come out any minute smoking his cigarette
  21. snowman19
    Kiss of death
  22. snowman19
    Not to worry, I’m sure we’ll go into deep winter once the calendar flips to March. Same repeating pattern progression over and over again
  23. snowman19
    I do too but if I’m a betting man, March is colder than normal and most likely so is April. For whatever reason and I do believe climate change is playing some role, the -AO/-NAO shows up like clockwork around mid to late March and locks in. You can set your watch to it
  24. snowman19
    The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April
  25. snowman19
    I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years
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