snowman19

Rain

It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....

Yea it looks like we go -PNA/RNA for awhile

The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason

The Euro is even further OTS than the CMC, like next to no precip at all this weekend

@bluewave Pointed this out yesterday, you have a raging fast, record PAC jet circling almost the entire globe, blasting right into the west coast. Any +PNA that tries to form can’t sustain itself, that strong jet just crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up

All southern stream and a low in the Great Lakes

This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend

Lmaooo exactly. There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever to Boxing Day, zero lol. You had an extreme -NAO and -AO and deep arctic air with a banana high in place, strong 50/50 low, among other things, nothing is similar to this weekend

Pretty bad info given, the GFS wasn’t a “solid hit” unless 1-2 inches total is considered a solid hit now: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020012618&fh=198

Just read Larry’s newsletter from yesterday evening, he seems unenthusiastic about next weekend’s system as far as snow on the east coast and he wrote off February as mild for the eastern seaboard with little if any high latitude blocking. He seems to think the end of February through mid-March gets cold, then he’s thinking a very rapid warmup takes hold right after mid-March with a La Niña possibly developing

Look back at the coastal storms of Jan, Feb, and Mar, 1998. Very strong lows took benchmark and east of benchmark tracks and they were all rain for the entire metro area

You should be 5 posted. You contribute nothing because you know nothing I’m sure and are nothing but a troll

Why exactly wouldn’t it be rain? The cold is not there near the coast

I like HM but he has busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all

The ICON Lmfaoo!!

The CFS has been getting warmer and warmer for February with each run. Now that we are at the tail end of January, the CFS holds more weight. Based on the latest ensembles, the ugly pattern continues at least through the 1st 2 weeks of February.....

The EPS was definitely huggy

No 50/50 low, No -NAO block, it can easily amp and cut, nothing to stop it

Best of luck getting snow anywhere south of New England next weekend. There is no cold air, you kinda need that to snow....

We’ve really been spoiled for the last 20 years. 2000-2019 when all added up and averaged out had way more anomalous cold and snowy winters than the previous 20 year cycle (1979-1999), which by and large were duds minus a few. It seems to go in 20 year cycles for the most part; the 1959-1979 winters were way more anomalous for cold and snow than the winters which followed.....

Until it’s under 10 days, and even then, I view these new model runs with extreme skepticism. The models have been making the pattern look great, very cold and snowy, blocking in the long range for several runs in a row, keep it there, never move it forward in time, then they lose it completely. This has been going on literally since the first week of December. It honestly reminds of 2011-2012 when the models showed a great pattern in the long range that never materialized from December right through March. AK vortexes normally are not in a hurry to just disappear without a fight. I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think we see a true full scale change, if there is to be one, until the end of February....

Extremely marginal PAC airmass in place and that’s putting it nicely, no arctic high in SE Canada, +EPO, no strong 50/50 low, no -NAO block to stop it from becoming an inland runner/lakes cutter should it amp up....what could possibly go wrong??

The ridge out west is meaningless. It’s still a crud, garbage pac maritime airmass trapped over us. Same pattern next weekend. The Euro has been doing this ALL winter, it’s been absolutely horrible

This! It’s what some people don’t understand, all the +PNA is doing is trapping PAC air, even if a -NAO block were to form, it would just trap the crap PAC air coming in from the west at that time under the block. It’s a putrid maritime airmass