snowman19

A cooler rain for the metro area

You are going to have to go way north of the metro area to get wintry with this one. Like interior central and northern New England north

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO. All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

Yep and it’s real warm for our neck of the woods in the metro area too...upper 50’s

Yep. It’s always the same cast of characters humming the same old SSW tune every winter

Best east coast snowstorm pattern we’ve seen since January, 1996 right?

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

When you hold all your hopes on a “major” SSW event to completely flip the long wave pattern at the end of December, it usually doesn’t end well......

You’re just repeating the hype from the weenie mets on twitter. Literally every winter from November through March they scream about the massive SSWs and SPV splits that are coming. Snake oil salesmen. Fact is, despite what these clowns say, SSWs and SPV splits don’t automatically mean a huge arctic cold and snow dump into the eastern US. In fact, it may just benefit Eurasia and do nothing here, as has been the case numerous times in the past. But they have everyone fooled to believe that every SSW or SPV split event is going to turn the east coast into an arctic tundra. Most of the time they are wrong in predicting these events to top it off, they either don’t end up happening or happen on a very muted scale. It’s a real bad sign when you are depending on SSWs and SPV splits to cause large scale favorable pattern changes, a lot of things are usually going really wrong at that point.....

Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed

Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2.....

The GEFS and GEPS were incredibly ugly all the way out to the end. The EPS wasn’t really any bargain either

Correct, we also have a +WPO, which is adding to the PAC driven mess. People need to be aware too, that the -NAO block may set up too far south....that needs to be kept in mind here. A too far south block hooking up with the WAR (no 50/50 low) is not good. That block needs to establish itself further north or you have big problems

There in lies a big issue, the PAC jet. Over the last several winters, every attempt at sustained +PNA ends up falling apart because the juiced PAC jet crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up

The model continue to show a strong +EPO and have backed off on sustained +PNA. Until you lose the AK troughing, you aren’t going to get durable cold into the CONUS. The +EPO is completely cutting off any cross-polar flow. You also have a +WPO. Despite the -NAO and -AO, this is not an arctic cold pattern and it may be extremely difficult to get east coast snowstorms until the PAC changes, negative AO/NAO isn’t going to cut it with a Pacific that looks like that

Get well soon. God bless. Merry Christmas

I don’t trust the GFS or GEFS anymore. They have been abysmal man

I knew when I saw his posts hyping the best east coast snow pattern since January, 1996, his forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter, and declaring La Niña dead and his bragging that “DTRex” had ended the streak of bad winters, it was the kiss of death....

I completely disagree. This is the strongest trade wind surge we have seen since October. Nino 3.4 is going to drop. Also as Don already pointed out, this is the lowest SOI we’ve had since 2012. Region 3.4 SSTs are solidly in moderate territory. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators certainly show a healthy Niña, not a dead one. It’s also showing that this is very likely to be a slow fade in late winter, not a sudden shift into Neutral/La Nada

@bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all:

Agree with you. Next week looks real doubtful for a snowstorm in the metro area, even New Years Day. New England may be a different story, especially central and northern New England.

Unless there are some big changes soon, I don’t think we can be real optimistic about next week for a major snowstorm

The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate

To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous

If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February