snowman19

Yep, February is in trouble, big trouble. Both -NAO/-AO showing signs of breaking down in the beginning of February, couple that with MJO phase 6/-GLAAM and you have a torch-a-rama in the east. If anyone was wondering where the canonical La Niña pattern has been, here it comes.....

Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right

The models have consistently been way too cold in the long range since November. Too aggressive with fantasy -EPO’s and to a lesser extent +PNA’s. A function, I believe like you said, of underestimating the PAC jet. The end of this month is getting warmer by the day with each model run, now they are playing catch-up as we get closer because they were way too cold at range

Yet another -EPO fail incoming and yea, the -PNA is getting stronger as we move forward in time

GEPS has been getting progressively more Niña looking going into February since the Thursday night run. I posted about it this morning, BAMWX pointed it out that the EPS and GEFS are backing off the very cold runs for the long range they had and are both markedly warming up each cycle for the last several runs....

Not speaking in absolutes at all. And how good is the Niña February looking? About as good as the SSW bringing epic cold and snow here. Or “MJO phase 8!” Or the collapsed Niña by January. Lol I’m going to bring this post back up should we be deep in the throws of a canonical La Niña pattern next month

@bluewave @donsutherland1 I know @Rjay and others don’t like BAMWX and I can understand why at times, but they have a point here. Yet another modeled “cold” period turning way warmer as we move closer in time. Now, 1/18-1/31 doesn’t look so cold and snowy anymore. GEFS and EPS doing an about face yet again. The beat goes on....

Exactly. That setup might work in March with the shorter wavelengths, but as far as that look (deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast) producing a big snowstorm next week, along with the northern stream still screaming across the CONUS....color me skeptical

If there’s a deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast for this storm, people aren’t going to like the results here as far as snow, even with the blocking. Plus you still have a raging fast northern stream at that point....

Saw the CMC. If the Para GFS and Euro show something similar I’ll get interested. I completely disregard anything the regular GFS shows. It’s literally the worst model there is. The ICON is better

If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol

^The other thing we haven’t been able to do in several years is sustain a -EPO

Looks like nothing but screaming fast zonal flow right through 1/31 on all models. -PNA/RNA, nothing to slow it down and turn it meridional. Everything gets shredded and suppressed

People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here

Keep listening to your boy Eric Webb. The hype king. First it was going to be the most epic cold and snowy December ever, then the most epic cold and snowy January ever....he’s the new JB. Busts just as bad as him too. But not to worry....Henry Margusity says the next ice age coupled with 95-96 snowfall is still coming

Yet another round of total nothing burger runs on all global models through 1/25 for the metro area. Literally less than 2 inches of snow, total, over the next 10 days even using the 10:1 ratio snow maps

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

Question is, is the +PNA real or just another mirage out in the long range? I think it is going to be extremely difficult if not impossible to sustain any +PNA from here on out. Why? La Niña. The northern branch polar jet is absolutely screaming and will continue to be. We have a 200 kt jet roaring across the CONUS next week, that jet is going nowhere. If any +PNA tries to pop up, the PAC jet is going to crash into it and knock it right back down as fast it went up. The northern branch is just going to become even more dominant, we are still in the midst of a moderate La Niña, which has actually become a west-based/Modoki (coldest anomalies in regions 4 and 3.4) event and we are going into a classic -PMM which is dramatically weakening the STJ/southern branch

EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes

We have ripping fast flow in the northern branch polar jet (typical La Niña). Everything is getting suppressed well south and put through the meat grinder with the fast flow in between the strong 50/50 vortex, which is trapped underneath the NAO block, and the SE Ridge trying to poke up. The shortwaves can’t amp

God speed

All the overnight 0Z model runs were weak sauce, nothing burgers through Day 10 (240 hours). GFS, Para-GFS, CMC, Euro, all less than 3 inches of snow total for the metro area even using the liberal 10:1 ratio snow maps. ICON offered nothing at all through the end of its run (180 hours)

We are going into a -PMM. That is going to dramatically weaken the STJ from here on out

How’s the collapse you predicted going?