snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda
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We agree. The +EPO is going to limit any cold. And the WPO is only weakly negative. Also extremely unlikely the +PNA has any staying power given the -PDO, La Niña, -PMM background states.? Once we get into early December, the MJO will support a warming trend. The SPV is becoming very strong and if it couples with the TPV, we have a problem This is not a good sign:
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The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead
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The Niña strengthening. It’s happening despite what JB said
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Yep. This one is coming. We are about to see explosive strengthening and it most likely goes into strong territory for a time. The tropical conditions all support it as does the record -PDO
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Lol!!!! We all know how you are…you quote and listen to Joe Bastardi, enough said. The same Joe Bastardi who said this La Niña was weakening and dead a week ago when it’s about to explode in strength come early December. He’s either A - a totally incompetent quack who hasn’t a clue wtf he’s talking about or B - completely delusional/mental. Take your pick
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The SPV is not weak:
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No one is forcing anything you fool
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This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave:
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@stadiumwave @MJO812 It’s doing anything but dying, in fact, it’s about to undergo a huge period of strengthening by early December :
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This is an extremely well coupled La Niña, last winter never coupled. I don’t know why anyone would even try to argue that it’s not, plus you have a very severely negative PDO and -PMM to go along with it
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Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December….
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This has been a given for months, just for perspective, 10-11 was westerly QBO and 11-12 was easterly QBO. Easterly QBO doesn’t automatically mean super cold and snowy winter, in fact, with the research HM did, he showed that easterly QBO along with La Niña results in a flat Aleutian ridge, the westerly QBO La Niña combo was found to result in a poleward Aleutian ridge
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Looks like the GFS is off its rocker again….can’t really say I’m surprised. The upgrade has done nothing apparently. It’s proving the be the most flip-flopping, erratic model out there as evidenced by this….dreadful:
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The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation
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Agree. All he does is predict severe cold and snow for the east coast. He’s got some serious issues within the old coconut. Dude is delusional. How anyone would pay money to read his snake oil propaganda is beyond me. Henry Margusity is just as bad. Two peas in a pod…
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I never once said I believe it, or I’m forecasting it or I think that’s what’s going to happen. I simply commented on what the model is showing, nothing more, nothing less
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This is really troubling. Looks like the SPV stays very strong right through the end of this month, going into the beginning of December:
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If you like winter, pray that it’s totally wrong. It’s showing raging ++NAO/++AO. If that happens, you can stick a fork in this winter
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I’m not calling for a torch. A +2 month is not a torch
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Been saying this since the end of October. I didn’t buy any of the cold November hype. I saw and still see November being another above normal month. A +2F for the month overall would not surprise me. The signs were all there at the end of October that this was going to happen
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100% and like @bluewave said, even if you get a -WPO the +EPO still allows the northern branch to punch into the west coast
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Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now. I’ve also been saying to view any big +PNA spikes with extreme skepticism given the coupled strengthening Niña and the very strong -PDO/-PMM, any +PNA is not going to have staying power
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You’re so stupid it makes me angry. Are you naturally this dumb or did you have to take a class?
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And the new GFS pops a 591dm ridge up the east coast for 11/25. That model is Lol-worthy. It flat out sucks, always has, probably always will
