snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Congratulations
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@bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event?
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Not only is a rare 3rd year La Niña looking more likely, the models are getting stronger with it….maybe related to the very strong -IOD event being forecasted…..
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Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event
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Also, going to be +QBO assuming a normal progression
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This is going to be a very interesting year I think, not going to be very many analogs…possible very rare 3rd year (Modoki?) La Niña, possible record -IOD event, likely -PDO/-PMM continuing as well as record warm Atlantic SSTs along and off the SE coast also likely to continue
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Yes, if the models are correct, this -IOD event may be one of the strongest in history, possibly even the strongest
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Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape:
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Going to be a rough 8 months coming up for you until December then I guess
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Snow isn’t getting anywhere near the I-95 corridor tomorrow
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Yes, a 3rd year La Niña is starting to definitely look likely:
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My allergies are the worst they’ve ever been in my life. It started the week of St. Patrick’s Day and have been relentless ever since. My allergist just had to change my prescriptions yesterday afternoon
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Pretty good agreement among all ensembles now that the pattern breaks come mid-month. It may get quite warm mid-April and beyond with that SE ridge flex. I have a feeling we are in for some early season heat come May
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Yep, even for the 40’s-80’s colder time frame, April, 1982 was very highly anomalous, a true fluke month
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Thursday has some scary looking soundings for parts of the area. We may be in for one hell of a severe weather event
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There was an extremely impressive band off of Ontario last night, some areas in the higher elevations probably saw well over a foot
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Getting snow squalls here now
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Occasional snow showers and 42 in Sloatsburg
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Seeing obs of snow at High Point State Park in Sussex County, NJ
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48 degrees in Sloatsburg, heavy rain showers mixed with some hail. Extremely unstable/convective right now, cumulus congestus and towering cumulus all over with breaks of sun
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The projected Niña strengthening being forecasted by the models looks credible given the atmospheric and oceanic states. It’s starting to look it a very real possibility that we see a La Niña for the 3rd winter in a row
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Nothing is guaranteed in weather obviously but I see some good signs that this April won’t be like those years and could actually turn out warmer and drier than normal
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There are some signs that April may end up being a lot warmer than some people think right now. I don’t think it ends up anything like last April. I also think we start torching in May
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You didn’t read a thing I said, I said the LENGTH!!!!! Either you didn’t read or you need Pearl Vision
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The Euro now has a torch (70F+) day late next week on the new run. So much for that sustained arctic cold into April. This is probably the beginning of the Euro backing off on the length of the cold shot as we draw closer in time
