snowman19

I agree

Yes, in theory it would most likely eventually flip the PDO positive. That said, the 72-73 winter featured a -PDO for the entire winter and that was a super event

Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles

This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd

A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far

Correct, so far this one is unique in that isn’t just an EP/east-based El Niño …it’s EXTREMELY east-based, with both SSTs and WWBs. This may end up being a record event in that regard. It does look like a very robust, possibly strong to very strong Nino event is on the way. The +IOD leads me to believe it’s going to continue to strengthen. And yea this year’s PDO is starting much lower than 1972

So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..

I think the question will be does it become basin-wide or stays east-based. Unless something changes dramatically over the next several months (possible), I highly doubt a Modoki event. East-based events tend to be more frequent during -PDO cycles

Evidence continues to mount for a strong El Niño event, as of right now, only 1997 and 1982 were warmer than the present:

We haven’t seen a true east-based El Niño in 25 years. Every Nino since then has been Modoki/western tilt/basin-wide. Eventually it’s going to happen again, east-based events tend to be more common in -PDO regimes

I’m praying for a very strong El Niño, east-based, late peak. PLEASE!!!! [emoji1317][emoji1317]

Back in November, 2014 the PDO was record strong positive and getting even stronger. It helped force that insanely strong, relentless ++PNA/-EPO/-WPO, which was present for that entire winter. It was all PAC driven. The NAO and AO were both severely positive that winter and did us no good at all

Obviously a lot can change between now and the fall, but so far, this developing El Niño looks absolutely nothing at all like a Modoki event

It’s over let it go

I can’t even imagine how much worse that summer would have been with high humidity. That July 4th heatwave was crazy, I remember hitting 100F. The heat started in May and went unabated right through September. I honestly can’t remember a 5 month stretch that relentlessly hot

Summer, 2010 was out of control hot. The hottest summer I can ever remember. It was just relentless, I think every damn day was in the 90’s. Brutal

Absolutely. If the ensembles are correct, that’s easily 80+ in April with downsloping westerly flow, as long as we get sunshine

The March MJO progression and strong east-based warming would seemingly support a strong event, but a very long way to go. Paul Roundy is on the strong train so far, we’ll see

It looks like a healthy +IOD is going to develop which would support Nino development and -SOI

Paul Roundy is on the strong El Niño train. In previous tweets he said he believes this is going to be a very significant event, believes it may go strong

He’s totally gone off the deep end this winter. This is way worse than his “vodka cold” bust of 01-02. He’s Casey Jones on the runaway train

02-03 was a Modoki event start to finish. It didn’t start out east-based and move west