snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I wonder if the recent change to +AO/+NAO is related to the change in tropical forcing and west PAC warm pool (Ninas) we discussed earlier today with those super warm SSTs north of Australia the last several years
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Those super (record) warm SSTs north of Australia is going to have a really profound effect on the global heat budget. The MJO/tropical forcing is going to want to continue to redevelop over and over in phases 4-6, in a positive feedback loop, basically a standing wave. The La Niña base state is only serving to re-enforce that even more
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Those very warm waters north of Australia are concerning and here’s why:
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Pray for a cold/snowy December. During a Niña, when December is warmer than normal with below average snow it bodes very, very poorly for the rest of winter
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And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)
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It’s going to get mild the tail end of this month, then the question becomes what happens after this? I’ll believe -NAO/-AO blocking when it moves forward in time and doesn’t stay in the long range. We’ll see
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Assuming the depicted -NAO blocking in the long range is actually real (big if) that’s probably when “something” happens winter wx wise, assuming the EPO doesn’t go very positive or the PNA very negative. There have just been so many phantom -NAO blocks in the long range that never materialize over the last several winters, it’s hard to believe it, unless it actually moves forward in time and doesn’t just stay in the long range
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Suppression is always the risk with a strong -EPO pattern. It looks like tropical forcing goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent at the end of this month for awhile. It should allow for a mild up for a bit then the question becomes what comes after?
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When we get a legit west-based -NAO block then things will get interesting….
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The EPS is laughing at that op run
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FWIW:
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Take a look at his twitter. It’s honestly painful, just unreal. All the pro mets rip him apart. I’ve finally found someone worse than JB and Henry Margusity, I didn’t think it was actually possible but that clown takes the cake, hands down
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It’s hard to believe that guy is actually a meteorologist. Very hard to believe
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With the forcing going back to the eastern IO and Maritime continent the tail end of this month and early December, a decent SE ridge probably pops
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And just like that all the talk of GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter stopped lol
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I wonder why there’s no more talk about the GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter anymore lol
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https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/
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Despite some people saying to ignore the La Niña and that “other drivers will determine this winter’s pattern” La Niña is definitely going to make her presence felt:
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Yes. I saw someone mention that possibility on twitter, I forget who it was, but they mentioned a possible -WPO/poleward Aleutian ridge developing in December in response to the Niña forcing
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That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head
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That guy is a total joke. He posts and hypes the 384 hour operational GFS and the 700 hour CFS. Worse than JB and Henry Margusity. The pro mets rip him apart on twitter
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These are some good points on how the MJO progressions/tropical forcing may go this winter:
