snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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And the NAO is positive as hell this time, unlike December when it tamed what would have been a massive RNA/SE ridge torch, this time, there’s nothing to stop it
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I’m sure no one is surprised but the EPS caved to the GEFS. Completely tanks the PNA, dumps a full latitude trough in the west and pumps the SE ridge the end of this month into early February
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+NAO and the SE ridge/WAR flexing, that’s all you need to see. These storms are going to continue to cut and inland run. Nothing to stop it. The GEFS probably has the right idea with an RNA trough in the west, especially in the final days of this month and the beginning of February
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Say canonical La Niña without saying canonical La Niña: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
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Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over
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The GEFS may be rushing it a bit but I think by early February we go RNA/SE ridge. There’s really nothing to stop it. If there’s no -NAO block, we are in trouble
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We see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March?
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If anyone doubts that La Niña is going to have a major influence on February, look no further. One of the most negative MEI’s in history for December, indicating a very well coupled Niña
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100%. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low. SE ridge, RNA. Cutter/inland runner city. I don’t really care what JB and the other weenie mets say, that is not an east coast snowstorm pattern
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Yep. The -PNA correction is next. We’ve seen this movie before
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And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we get closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña
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Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it
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In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area
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Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east
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The long range op GFS and twitter has given me over 200 inches of snow so far since November
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As bad as this winter has been so far, I think the infamous “vodka cold” winter of 01-02 was worse. Not only was it virtually snowless, there was no cold at all on our side of the pole from November to March. At least this winter we had the major arctic outbreak in late December, although it was very short lived
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Pray the new GEFS extended are wrong. It shows the pattern going to hell in the opening first couple of days of February. It goes canonical La Niña, flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA trough dumped into the west and massive SE ridge. CFS also just went to a torch for February but take that model for what it is
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The questions are how fast does the cold build up and move east? The other one is, is it just seasonable or actually arctic? The ensembles have different ideas
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West Atlantic Ridge
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@Bluewave pronounced WAR showing up on the long range ensembles. Wonder if it’s being undermodeled in the long range again?
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No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run [emoji23][emoji23]
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That’s a really good question…..is that simply a transitional, transient pattern with the jet retraction that retros and rolls into RNA once into February? Or is it something sustainable?
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There’s a positive feedback loop with the SSTs and that WAR. It’s been a staple for years now and a big reason for non cooperation on the Atlantic side
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I very seriously doubt a +PNA having any staying power. The La Niña is still moderate (Region 3.4 is -1.1C), the SOI is still very high and the trade winds are still anomalously very strong. I can’t imagine the +PNA sticking around long before we go RNA again, especially given Niña climo in February
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And of course the tail end of the month doesn’t look all that cold anymore (I’m sure you’re shocked). Why? Because Canada is still completely flooded with PAC garbage and with no cross polar flow it’s going to take awhile to rebuild the cold.
