snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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@40/70 BenchmarkThis is what we spoke of a couple of weeks ago….what you don’t want to see come winter. Very persistent Eastern Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent forcing. IMO keep a very close eye on this going into November and see what happens….if this is where the main forcing is going to be this winter, we have a problem:
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The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said
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Rockland County got a solid 16-18 inches as I remember
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At one point they were comparing 12/30/00 to the Blizzard of ‘96 and the Megalopolis Blizzard of ‘83, the media hype was out of control for DC-BOS
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I would be in total shock if this event goes strong over the next 2 months but there are still mets who think it does:
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This is the last push of strengthening, probably through late November/early December then we start marching toward neutral. Then the warming really starts to pickup this coming spring….probably in an El Niño by late summer IMO
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I was a kid for that storm, the thing I remember besides helping my Dad shovel was the extremely heavy snowfall rates. It had to be 2-3 inches+ per hour for a few hours at one point during that storm, definitely some of the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life
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Looks like a moderate peak is a good call:
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If that’s correct….if….then December most likely ends up colder and snowier than normal
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@40/70 Benchmark This Niña is definitely basin wide now. Every region is solidly in a Niña
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No need to curse. I don’t have an agenda. My opinion is that 2000-2001 is the best analog for this winter despite the QBO and PDO. I think we can all agree that winter was not a torch and given the winters over the last 7 years since 2015 I think everyone would take it and run
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Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet
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@40/70 BenchmarkAre you also seeing a possible warm to very warm (torch?) November? Some of the models are showing a shift to eastern IO forcing starting the end of this month and in November
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Just be patient, you will get your Modoki El Niño next winter. IMO this Niña isn’t going officially neutral/La Nada until the beginning of April give or take. This is a very healthy Niña event (which I believe is going to be solidly moderate) we are in the midst of right now
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How many times do I have to tell you I don’t think it’s going strong? 20? 30? I have said moderate all along and possibly high end moderate since July and I believe it’s going to peak come late November or December
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And besides region 4 being cold, this Niña is about to strengthen, there are still extremely cold subsurface anomalies and there is yet another very strong Easterly Wind Burst in progress:
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He’s not my “buddy” and who cares at this point? It’s not east-based, Nino region 4 is solidly in a La Niña and has been for months.
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If there was any question whether or not the Hunga Tonga eruption will reach the northern hemisphere’s stratosphere by winter, that has now been answered. The only question that remains is what effect will this have on the SPV?
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There is some evidence that we may see eastern IO forcing in November….if that’s actually the case, torch city
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In addition to the strong -EPO/-WPO there was ++PNA and a ridiculously ++PDO. Purely PAC driven winters. The NAO and AO were positive as hell those 2 winters
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There are so many theories floating around twitter right now because no one knows what it’s going to do this winter. Everything from nothing (doubtful) to warm stratosphere to cold stratosphere to SPV on roids to record weak SPV. If anyone says they know for sure what’s going to happen they are lying or wishcasting. There are no similar events to look back on, this was a historic volcanic eruption in respect to the H2O vapor released into the stratosphere with nothing even close to being comparable
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No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem
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We have to let the northern hemisphere SPV get established through this winter to see what effects it has
